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Today’s Ratings and Advice 11/09/13

Question 1 – Why did Beverley water the track, even though they knew rain was forecast?

Question 2 – Why, despite the times of the first two races indicating it was slow ground, did the CoC not change the going description from good to firm?

Richard Guest, trainer of the first winner on that card said afterwards that he had been really worried about the ground for his horse and those watching could see clearly that it was cutting up. After watching the second race I decided I would wait until the last race and have a small play on that one I suggested needed rain (the one that had been winking at me), and in it whizzed by six lengths.

I really cannot emphasise enough just how important the ground is. It is no coincidence that we’ve seen losing runs appear, especially at Haydock last Saturday, because the rains are falling after I have prepared my work and unless we get a week of nice dry weather and consistent going conditions, reaching that +400 point mark this month will not happen.

Today the weather forecast at both tracks I have worked on suggests rain is coming. As frustrating as that might be I’m always mindful that one day it wont, and that’s when I’ll be more certain of making a profit. We will have plenty of opportunity to see what happens to the ground at Doncaster before my rated race there as it’s the last on the card.

Carlisle indicates they have an 80% chance of rain and they too have watered the straight course. In that case, the 2-20 will be very interesting and I’ll be watching to see if it has softened up much. If you are in a position to do so, best you do, too.

Assumptions:

CARLISLE – Flat (Updated:10/09/2013 at 08:21:51)
Going
Good
(GoingStick: 7.4 on Sunday at 08:00)

Stalls
All on inside

Rails
Rail moved onto inside – distances as stated

Weather
6mm in last 24 hrs. Tuesday – Cloudy with sunny spells 16C.
Wednesday – Cloudy, now with rain from late morning 16C.

Watering
Monday selective watered straight 5mm

DONCASTER – Flat (Updated:11/09/2013 at 07:04:36)
Going
Good,
Going stick reading will be influenced by verti draining.
(GoingStick: 7.8 on Tuesday at 07:15)

Stalls
Straight course Stands side

Weather
Friday 10.4mm of rainfall temp high +14c.
Saturday 1mm of rainfall temp high +17c.
Sunday Light rain shower 0.2mm temp high +16c.
Monday 4mm of rainfall temp high +17.
Tuesday 0.2mm of rainfall temp high +14c.
Forecast
Wednesday chance of light rain or Showers 1mm-2mm temp high +18c.
Thursday Dry temp high +20c. 80% chance
of a rain overnight 4mm.
Friday possible showers 2mm temp high +19c .
Saturday possible rain or showers 6mm temp high +17c.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses perceived as being best drawn

DONCASTER 5-15

§*SIR PEDRO….+9
§*MEDICI TIME….+9
*EVEN STEVENS….+9
§*ROYAL BAJAN….+8
*NOODLES BLUE BOY….+5
*SILVANUS….-1
§*BRONZE BEAU….-2
*HAAJES….-2
*HAZELRIGG….-4
*PROFILE STAR….-4
*BEDLOE’S ISLAND….-10
*RYLEE MOOCH….-11
*CHEVETON….-18
*PERFECT BLOSSOM….-19
SATSUMA….-21
§COMMANCHE….-26
SLEEPY BLUE OCEAN….-27
§THREES GRAND….-30
ADAM’S ALE….-32
ELAND ALLY….-34
§BURNHOPE….-40
CAPTAIN SCOOBY….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – SIR PEDRO, MEDICI TIME, ROYAL BAJAN
20/80 – SIR PEDRO
EXOTICS – SIR PEDRO, MEDICI TIME, ROYAL BAJAN
LAY – THREES GRAND
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High an absolute “must have”

ADVICE – All I’ll say is, if the rain arrives and it’s anything worse than good, all bets are off. If we get genuine good racing ground, I’ll play as indicated.

CARLISLE 2-50

RED CHARMER….+9
MAGIC SKYLINE….-3
TECTONIC….-10
*CALL OF DUTY….-11
HAIL BOLD CHIEF….-16
*JORDAURA….-22
*OUTLAW TORN….-25
ORIONS HERO….-28
VICKY VALENTINE….-39
OBBOORR….-40
PLUNDER….-40

ADVICE – My top rated needs quick ground and right now it’s good with that rain on the way so, stand by yer beds!

CARLISLE 3-25

*JONNY LESTERS HAIR….+10
FRASERBURGH….-2
MIXED MESSAGE….-13
VOICE FROM ABOVE….-20
*ARTFUL PRINCE….-23
EDAS….-25
JOSHUA THE FIRST….-28
*WOODACRE….-34
*EBONY EXPRESS….-35
POLAR FOREST….-40
ILLWALLA….-40

ADVICE – Both divisions of this race look trappy, this one more than that one above but again, until I’ve seen the ground, no bets.

CARLISLE 5-05

*DUTCH ROSE….+8
PACIFIC HEIGHTS….+7
MUSHAAKIS….-5
*HOT ROD MAMMA….-10
*JO’BURG….-10
*SWEETNESSANDLIGHT….-16
DUBAI HILLS….-19
*SUITS ME….-19
*WANNABE KING….-21
KING TORUS….-28

ADVICE – My top rated seems versatile as regards ground so for sure, whatever happens she’ll be my 20/80 but all other bets, including the dutch, which would hopefully pay for that bet, are up in the air.

CARLISLE 5-35

§BLUE MAISEY….+21
§*FIRST CLASS FAVOUR….+12
REX ROMANORUM….+5
*RALPHY BOY….-5
CAMEROONEY….-6
ORATORY….-11
*DANCE FOR GEORGIE….-15
*INDIAN GIVER….-15
§CHEERS BUDDY….-16
CONFUSING….-17
§BORDER BANDIT….-18
APACHE RISING….-23
§DIALOGUE….-26
ARAMIST….-30
CAPE SAMBA….-31

THREE TO DUTCH – BLUE MAISEY, FIRST CLASS FAVOUR, RALPHY BOY
20/80 – FIRST CLASS FAVOUR
EXOTICS – BLUE MAISEY, FIRST CLASS FAVOUR, RALPHY BOY
LAY – CAPE SAMBA
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low just preferred to high over middle

ADVICE – My top one again needs quick ground and will also require a bit of luck in running. By contrast my second highest rated will enjoy the rains falling and right now above is how I’ll look to play.

CARLISLE 6-05

*O MA LAD….+9
*CRACKENTORP….+8
HUNTING GROUND….+/-0
*TAPIS LIBRE….-7
*SIRVINO….-9
AMPLEFORTH….-12
*PERSIAN PERIL….-15
GOOD SPEECH….-23
LION BEACON….-23
RIO’S ROSANNA….-29
HEPWORTH….-40

ADVICE – Long distance affair….October Rules.

OF INTEREST

GOLD HUNTER (Doncaster 4-45) – 20/80

Have a great day and the very bst of luck if you are punting.

Kindest regards

Ron

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