Yesterday was extremely frustrating. Not a single top rated winner managed to get it’s head in front so nine points gone back to the layers from those profits gleaned over the last four months. The sheer volume of non-runners again scuppered everything though and all three suggested lays were withdrawn.
The Scoop 6 Syndicate entry did very well, several live place lines still a possibility going into the final leg, the Betfred Sprint Cup, and our banker Lethal Force just had to place. It failed and those place portions went down the pan.
Australia….did you listen to our Podcast this week? Go on, check it out and listen for the part I suggest we discuss last night’s Leopardstown 5-15!
This is what happened to my work yesterday:
*HARRISON GEORGE….+11 – 2ND 13/2
§SMART DAISY K….-5
§*JUDGE ‘N JURY….-7 – 3RD 12/1
THREE TO DUTCH – HARRISON GEORGE, NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM, JUDGE ‘N JURY
20/80 – HARRISON GEORGE
EXOTICS – HARRISON GEORGE, NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM, JUDGE ‘N JURY
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High preferred
ADVICE – Ability to handle the ground is paramount for me and I’ve selected three in my top five having that * and two having the required draw. HARRISON GEORGE will love conditions, is drawn “second best” and is in rare form right now. He gets my 20/80.
RESULT – Two of the trio used for my own play finishing 2nd & 3rd….cracking good run from my solo play but just not good enough on the day.
§PALLASATOR….+13 – 3RD 7/2
§TROPICAL BEAT….+6 – NR
§PLATINUM….-10 – WON 10/1
THREE TO DUTCH – PALLASATOR, GASSIN GOLF, ITLAAQ
20/80 – PALLASATOR
EXOTICS – PALLASATOR, GASSIN GOLF, ITLAAQ
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Double figure draw preferred
ADVICE – I don’t see any way on this planet that TROPICAL BEAT will run. He was pulled out of the Ebor because of rain and my guess is they’ll do the same here. Contrastingly, PALLASATOR was pulled from the Ebor (having been well backed ante-post), because they feared it would be to quick. My figures suggest compensation awaits and I’m already on.
RESULT – We discussed this race at great length in the podcast and I did offer up some advice regarding the draw, which proved spot on again, despite the race being run over such a long trip. My top rated came up just under two lengths short – another placed one.
§*GALICIAN….+9 – 6TH 12/1
§*GABRIEL’S LAD….+8 – 2ND 7/1
§*FIELD OF DREAM….+5 – 5TH 10/1
*LIGHT UP MY LIFE….+2
*REDVERS….+1 – WON 8/1
§*DON’T CALL ME….-1
BORN TO SURPRISE….-27
THREE TO DUTCH – GALICIAN, GABRIEL’S LAD, FIELD OF DREAM
20/80 – GALICIAN
EXOTICS – GALICIAN, GABRIEL’S LAD, FIELD OF DREAM
20/80 – GALICIAN
LAY – ASCRIPTION
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Middle looks the place to be.
ADVICE – My top three have everything I’m looking for.
RESULT – Very happy with my figures, just not the result I was looking for. My dutch failed to land my profits by a neck!
*FORGIVE….-3 – 2ND 7/2
*PRINCESS OF ORANGE….-20
LANANSAAK….-40 – WON 6/1
ADVICE – This is more a 3-y-o handicap, just two of the 11 strong field older than that but one of the younger ones is clear on my numbers so she’ll carry my solo play. Top three dutch if possible, to pay for that and any other bets I can get involved in.
RESULT – I more or less knew what was going to happen here….and it did. It was simply impossible to get an accurate figure for the winner, who was coming into this race having had just two runs as a juvenile, wearing a first time hood and she won in a common canter. I ended up settling for a top two dutch….and again came second with one of that pair.
*GABBIANO….+15 – 4TH 4/1
§*DUNGANNON….+8 – WON 3/1
§*DIAMOND CHARLIE….+1 – 6TH 9/1
§*STONE OF FOLCA….-10
THREE TO DUTCH – GABBIANO, DUNGANNON, DIAMOND CHARLIE
20/80 – DUNGANNON
EXOTICS – GABBIANO, DUNGANNON, DIAMOND CHARLIE
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High/middle, preferred to low.
ADVICE – I am really liking my figures here. The top four looks to be the place we go for the winner and it’s just my way of working that makes me work the way I am. DUNGANNON is the highest rated horse having §* so he’s my 20/80….one of life’s “unlucky” horses though and it’s I’m hoping today is one of those days the horse gets that luck.
RESULT – A cracker but, the early price had simply shrivelled come off time and I hope everyone that played as I did got on early. Just 2 1/2 lengths separated the first six home and the three I played were in those six.
§*BONNIE CHARLIE….+9 – 3RD 13/2
MUTAFAAKIR….+/-0 – WON 3/1
*LULU THE ZULU….-7 – 2ND 11/4
§AZZURRA DU CAPRIO….-10
THREE TO DUTCH – BONNIE CHARLIE, SOLAR SPIRIT, LULU THE ZULU
20/80 – BONNIE CHARLIE
EXOTICS – BONNIE CHARLIE, SOLAR SPIRIT, LULU THE ZULU
LAY – YPRES
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High definitely preferred
ADVICE – My top pair have this spot on from a going/draw perspective….my lay suggestion has a good draw but, only win on turf to date has come on good to firm, he didn’t seem to quite get home over six furlongs last time and he looks hard to win with, whilst being very consistent. BONNIE CHARLIE took this race last year, the stable did top rated backers a turn in the Haydock opener yesterday and it’s fingers crossed we get a repeat performance here.
RESULT – Three of my top five home in the first three home so accuracy not bad but a losing race. BONNIE CHARLIE simply got going to late I’m afraid.
DREAMING OF RUBIES….-29
THREE TO DUTCH – MEANDMYSHADOW, TANGO SKY, MEDICI TIME
20/80 – MEANDMYSHADOW
EXOTICS – MEANDMYSHADOW, TANGO SKY, MEDICI TIME
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High again much preferred
ADVICE – My top rated looks to have a going issue and, is drawn “second best” so, it’s the three selected doing the work for me!
RESULT – Well, this simply turned into a disaster! Three non-runners reduced the field to eight, my solo selection then looks for a quick getaway, smashes through the gates illegally, gets withdrawn and simply a race to forget.
§*HOT ROD MAMMA….+8 – 2ND 11/2
§SHARQAWIYAH….+/-0 – 3RD 8/1
*SHESASTAR….-2 – 4TH 10/1
§AEROWYN BRYN….-1 – WON 7/1
STEER BY THE STARS….-23
THREE TO DUTCH – JEANNIE GALLOWAY, HOT ROD MAMMA, SHESASTAR
20/80 – HOT ROD MAMMA
EXOTICS – JEANNIE GALLOWAY, HOT ROD MAMMA, SHESASTAR
LAY – RAINBOW BEAUTY
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High/middle just preferred to low
ADVICE – Not so much in this bias and the winner could really come from anywhere but i’ve spotted something (I hope!), and I’ll work with it. The going is an issue for my top rated and my suggested lay and my second highest rated may well fail to see out the trip on easy ground so, HOT ROD MAMMA, a CD winner, good to go on the ground and well drawn, carries the punt.
RESULT – First four home in my top six so again, absolutely nothing wrong with my figures but frustration again as my solo play places.
THE BELLS O PEOVER….-13
*NOW MY SUN….-15
GIOIA DI VITA….-19
ERIC THE GREY….-36
RHOMBUS….-40 – WON 7/2F
ADVICE – The worst of my rated races today. I will work with rated horses 1, 2 and 5 to my October Rules.
RESULT – I ended up giving this race a complete swerve, probably because of the way things had already gone during the afternoon but mainly because I was responding to an e-mail from someone that had donated for my figures for the first time, had expected to win, hadn’t won and wanted to know why. Casual punters, those that cannot get involved every day, will always require that extra element called “luck”. To expect to land here on a day everything goes right, when most times it will not, is an unrealistic expectation.
My luck (or lack of it), was compounded at the end of my working day. I had promised myself a nice glass of Edradour to close what had been a seriously busy week and was about to indulge when Karen reminded me we had a bottle of Aspull cider to share. The Edradour is on hold.
Today we just have two rated races to look at:
§*SAVE THE BEES….+10
KING OF THE CELTS….-7
*BANK ON ME….-25
§TRUE TO FORM….-40
DAY OF DESTINY….-40
THREE TO DUTCH – SAVE THE BEES, MOROCCO, BARREN BROOK
20/80 – SAVE THE BEES
EXOTICS – SAVE THE BEES, MOROCCO, BARREN BROOK
LAY – BISHOP’S CASTLE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High/low preferred to middle
ADVICE – My top one suits me best and gets the solo play but top three for everything else. Why do I think the tissue favourite is a lay? Well, one win to date came over a mile on the all weather. He was a beaten favourite last time out, over a similar trip to today’s beaten comfortably by a 14/1 shot, with a 25/1 shot running from 2lb out of the handicap just a head behind him. Brian Ellison has booked Ryan Moore to ride which, at first glance reads a a major positive….however, their record when working together is minty to say the least. Add to this I think a middle draw is not great and that he’s got a low rating (I only have five previous races of his to work with, so no surprise there), and I have to feel he’s a bad favourite.
*HIT THE JACKPOT….-8
ADVICE – Marathon that offers up potentially the coincidence bet of the season….couple of feathered things top my figures and if my top three come to the fore then I’ll certainly be hitting my third bests name! Nowt but an October Rules kind of play but that’ll prove profitable if it comes off.
MY INSPIRATION (York 2-30) – 20/80
LIGHTNING CLOUD (York 3-00) – 20/80
LANCELOT DU LAC (York 4-40) – 20/80
TETBURY (York 5-10) – 20/80
No novelty bets today
Have a great day and be lucky!