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Today’s Ratings and Advice 04/09/13

An extremely quiet day after yesterday and I’m sorry about that as I’m sensing another head of steam building up again. Bath isn’t exactly putting on a show, are they? Just 36 runners spread across seven races and four of those are just four runner affairs. We have the strangest situation of a handicap not actually being a handicap (4-30), because the four horses taking part are all rated officially the same! It’s a day I’ll spend working on the new football site, preparing for tomorrow’s podcast and getting in touch with those looking to produce content for the Goal Posts.

Another superb 20/1 top rated winner, the only lay suggested beaten, a superb….well, “just take a look at whatya coulda won”….

GOODWOOD 4-40

*BROXBOURNE….+6 – 6TH 5/1
*WATERCLOCK….+4 – 4TH 6/1
*MUTUAL REGARD….+/-0 – 2ND 8/1
*AQUILONIUS….-7 – WON 16/1
*ARGENT KNIGHT….-8
ARCH VILLAIN….-18 – 3RD 5/1
RAY WARD….-20
MAWAQEET….-24
MARTIN CHUZZLEWIT….-30

RESULT – Five of my six highest rated horses finish in the first six home. Small field but, if you think it’s easy, try it.

GOODWOOD 5-10

§*SLIP SLIDING AWAY….+11 – WON 20/1
§*TIME MEDICEAN….+8
§JOHNNY CASTLE….+8
KINGLAMI….+8 – 3RD 6/1
*TIDENTIME….+2 2ND 9/2
*ROYAL GUINEVERE….+/-0
*VALMINA….-2
*BRAVO ECHO….-6
CLEAR PRAISE….-16
COMMANCHE….-20
§JUBILEE BRIG….-24

THREE TO DUTCH – SLIP SLIDING AWAY, TIME MEDICEAN, TIDENTIME
20/80 – TIDENTIME
EXOTICS – SLIP SLIDING AWAY, TIME MEDICEAN, TIDENTIME
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Middle look marginally preferred to low with high up against it.

ADVICE – My top pair would appear to have everything spot on except, perhaps, for the fact they simply aint good enough. They have been given decent draws to run from and tony Carroll gives my second highest rated horse it’s first run on turf in 2013 but, both my top pair have lots to prove. I’m having them in my dutch because if my figures are right and they run up to them, I’d look a right plank if I wasn’t on. However, it’s the Channon horse that gets my solo play – well enough drawn, ground right and back to the trip he last won over having been upped to seven furlongs the last three times.

RESULT – You have to be happy with that one! The top rated winner paid 29.4 to BFSP and that puts us to +324 points up for the season. Superb 162/1 Exacta, Dutch, “80”, 106/1 CSF….you cannot knock that one!

GOODWOOD 5-40

*MINORITY INTEREST….+12 – 4TH 7/2
MINTY FOX….+11 – 5TH 25/1
*SPIRITUAL ART….-5 – 2ND 5/1
SWIFT BLADE….-6 – 6TH 7/2
*SHIRATAKI….-15
*BATGIRL….-25
*JAMES POLLARD….-25
PENCHESCO….-27
ROYAL ETIQUETTE….-40
MISTER FIZZ….-40 – WON 6/1

RESULT – If you are going to get one wrong, do it spectacularly!

LEICESTER 3-05

*STRIKE FORCE….+6 – 4TH 33/1
GREY BLUE….+6 – 3RD 11/1
*LISA’S LEGACY….+3 – 2ND 15/2
ROYAL PECULIAR….-4 – 6TH 8/1
*QUEST FOR MORE….-6 – WON 9/4
GAMBLE….-8 – 5TH 5/2
ALBORZ….-14
GRAYSWOOD….-21
DUKE OF GRAZEON….-30

RESULT – Top six rated, first six home, top three running home 2nd, 3rd and 4th….so close to a whopper! That’ll always do for me, accuracy almost as important as drawing a profit. I had a 20/80 my top one and was gutted to see it running on so late.

LEICESTER 3-40

*DANCE WITH DRAGONS….+19
*ORTAC ROCK….+12
*ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE….+9
*BOGSNOG….+5
*AVAILABLE….-3
LIBERTY JACK….-6
*JONNIE SKULL….-14
*CEELO….-20
DIAMOND BELLE….-29 – 2ND 12/1
BRECCBENNACH….-30 – WON 6/1

ADVICE – As we saw yesterday, the three year old held sway in the all aged handicaps and I knew as soon as I had finished working on them what was going to happen. I hope I made it clear enough in the text yesterday that the likes of Pilates, Mizyen and that Irish one, Lindenhurst, all had my brain fogged and that punting those races would probably mean waving bye bye to the shekels. We just have to do one of two things in such events. Trust the figures or, walk away. Here, with a 3-y-o top rated, I’ll trust ’em…..but it’s an October Rules type play.

RESULT – We cannot win ’em all.

LEICESTER 5-20

§*CLOCK OPERA….+21 – 3RD 8/1
*BLACK ANNIS BOWER….+11 – 5TH 8/1
*DANCING MAITE….+8
§THE DARK WIZARD….+4 – WON 4/1
§*ARTFUL LADY….-4
PASTUREYES….-10
MESHARDAL….-15
§GRACE HULL….-22
BLACK CADILLAC….-24
§SHAOLIN….-25 – 2ND 13/8F
PORTRUSH STORM….-30

THREE TO DUTCH – CLOCK OPERA, THE DARK WIZARD, ARTFUL LADY
20/80 – CLOCK OPERA
EXOTICS – CLOCK OPERA, THE DAR WIZARD, ARTFUL LADY
LAY – SHAOLIN
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low much preferred

ADVICE – My suggested lay is drawn perfectly, they try a tongue tie first time today but, he’s dropping back in trip and that might count against him. Of course, it might not and we may see he improves for it but like it says on the t-shirt, until they have, they haven’t. I’ll work with the three suggested and hope the last time out win of CLOCK OPERA wasn’t a fluke.

RESULT – Dutch landed, a head off the exacta/CSF, the favourite laid and beaten, profits banked.

MUSSELBURGH 2-40

§*GONINODAETHAT….+8
*SUMMER DANCER….+8 – 2ND 8/1
§*MILTARY CALL….+1
§HILLS OF DAKOTA….-1
LOOK ON BY….-5
§GOAL….-12 – WON 7/4
MAILLOT JAUNE….-13
JOSHUA THE FIRST….-15
§CONJUROR’S BLUFF….-22
§DUTCH GAL….-27
§REMEMBER ROCKY….-30
MINOT STREET….-31
§FIFE JO….-32
§EILEAN MOR….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – GONINODAETHAT, SUMMER DANCER, MILITARY CALL
20/80 – GONINODAETHAT
EXOTICS – GONINODAETHAT, SUMMER DANCER, MILITARY CALL
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low/middle look the place to be but the winner could come from anywhere here.

ADVICE – Top three for my own bets. Many of these have been on the go for most of the season and we’ll see some tired legs out there.

RESULT – I just could not get more of a grip of that winner. I knew it’s past form but also knew it had never won on ground that quick, on the flat before, it had never won going right-handed and it had not raced on the flat for over 300 days. Scuppered my dutch and my profits though, swine.

MUSSELBURGH 4-25

*LA BACOUETTEUSE….+10 – 5TH 9/1
*JAWAAB….+10
*DISCAY….+8 – WON 5/2
*VALANTINO OYSTER….+6 – 3RD 18/1
*DEAN IARRACHT….-4 – 4TH 16/1
*MR DREAM MAKER….-14
*GRAND DIAMOND….-19
*LINDENHURST….-21 – 2ND 6/4F
*NON DOM….-22
*COAX….-27

ADVICE – That Irish one that spogged my brain yesterday may well turn out again here and if he does, he’s got every chance of winning it but you know me and horses running twice in 24 hours! I’ll just work with my top three and hope LINDENHURST a) doesn’t turn up or b), that second run in 24 hours takes it’s toll.

RESULT – Job done. Dutch produced a small profit and that’s always better than nowt.

MUSSELBURGH 5-00

BRUNELLO….+1
*FORREST FLYER….+/-0
*JAN SMUTS….-4
*SOHCAHTOA….-14
*LOCHIEL….-17
*GEANIE MAC….-22
DIYALA….-32 – WON 2/1F
PASSION PLANET….-39

RESULT – Impossible for me to get a proper handle on that Irish horse…in it whizzes….Elliot was never sending his two winners over for fresh Scottish air, was he!

MUSSELBURGH 5-30

*PAVERS STAR….+14
*HERE NOW AND WHY….+10 – 2ND 13/2
*BEAUTY PAGEANT….+9 – 5TH 9/1
*CAPTAIN ROYALE….+9 – WON 4/1
§*FOL HOLLOW….+6 – 6TH 22/1
§*TUIBAMA….+6
*IRISH GIRLS SPIRIT….+5
*MANDY LAYLA….-1
§*SAXONETTE….-2
§*QUALITY ART….+/-0
ROCK CANYON….-16
SEE VERMONT….-20
§MR SNOOKS….-25
ROYAL DUCHESS….-34

THREE TO DUTCH – PAVERS STAR, HERE NOW AND WHY, BEAUTY PAGEANT
20/80 – PAVERS STAR
EXOTICS – PAVERS STAR, HERE NOW AND WHY, BEAUTY PAGEANT
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Looking likely high will be best but it’s not enough of a bias to have me looking away from my top three.

ADVICE – Seriously competitive for a Class 6 event and a cracking good end to a fine days race in Scotland. As mentioned above I’ll work with my figures and hopefully extract a profit of some kind but it’s one of “those races”….run it again Wednesday, Thursday and Friday and we’d get a different result.

RESULT – My top rated missed the break, swerved coming out of the stalls, saddle slipped, was three lengths of the second last horse after a furlong and was beaten just over three lengths. Unlucky? Again, happy with my figures though.

LINGFIELD 5-15

*WE HAVE A DREAM….+12 – 3RD 14/1
*PUCON….+11 – 2ND 5/1
*ROYAL BAJAN….+10 – WON 6/4
*SOMOUD….+8
*BUSSA….+2
*MILLION FACES….-7
EXCELLENT AIM….-9

RESULT – Nice for those that played the top three to October rules as the lot was landed. A nice 74/1 tricast, for starters….80/1 if you opted for the trifecta. It had to be considered because this was down to just six runners and those bets still stood.

LINGFIELD 5-50

TAKE COVER….+12 – NR
*TIOMAN LEGEND….+12
*SPIN ARTIST….+9
*ZERO MONEY….+9 – WON 5/1
*FAIR VALUE….+9
*CLEAR SPRING….+8
*LA FORTUNATA….-4
*PISCEAN….-11

ADVICE – Mighty competitive and again Mark Johnston is after ruining my day by planting a twice raced three year old in an all aged handicap. In all likelihood SPIN ARTIST continues on his upward curve and wins with Callan lighting up the Hamlet but it’s that t-shirt thing again. I’ll see how things have gone through the day before setting up a play here as it might just be one I myself watches only.

RESULT – I ended up playing a top three dutch for interest and didn’t expect much….got it though!

To be sitting here nearly +325 points up for the season is just plain amazing. Yesterday all sections providing betting advice produced profit….the sole lay beaten, one of the two OF INTEREST selections winning, the other beaten just a head….everyone has to be happy with that.

Assumptions:

BATH – Flat (Updated:02/09/2013 at 15:43:00)
Going
Firm
(GoingStick: 10.2 on Monday at 12:30)

Stalls
5f, 5.5f & 2m1f Middle

Rails
The far side rail is dolled out approximately 4yds from 5f to
just after the 3f marker to provide a fresh running line where
the sprint races meet the main track. There is no effect on race
distances.

Weather
Forecast: Dry with sunny spells, max temp 24C.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses perceived as being best drawn

BATH 2-30

*ANNES ROCKET….+9
*COMPTONSPIRIT….+9
*DREAMS OF GLORY….+9
*KAKAPUKA….-3
*BELLE BAYARDO….-11
*CRIMSON QUEEN….-20
DARK LANE….-30

ADVICE – Top two dutch, 20/80 my top one and an exotic.

BATH 3-00

*DEVON DIVA….+11
APPYJACK….-2
OMEGA OMEGA….-11
ANOTHER SQUEEZE….-14
SAINT BONIFACE….-16
PETERSBODEN….-22

ADVICE – Punting this is exactly the same way as that one above.

Have a great day and the very best of luck if you are punting

Kindest regards

Ron

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