Michel-Jean must have been gnashing his teeth last night as the player he last week described as the hottest on the planet right now, Henrik Stenson, beat his main 30/1 selection, Steve Stricker, into second place…another very close one! Unlucky, Michel-jean!
When a plan comes together it’s always pleasing, because it means we’ve secured a profit. When something goes wrong, it’s galling enough for us as punters but what about connections of the horse? They must be pulling their hair out!
Yesterday a little plot was in the process of being hatched. I had half spotted it in my figures, included the horse in my dutch but saw enough of a reason not to have it up as my 20/80….this was the race in question:
*AMBITIOUS ICARUS….+12 – 6th 22/1
*GRAN CANARIA QUEEN….+11
§ALEXANDRAKOLLONTAI….+10 – 3RD 10/1 > 7/1
§*BECKERMET….+10 – 2ND 11/1
§*THE NIFTY FOX….+9 – 5th 20/1
FEEL THE HEAT….-15
THREE TO DUTCH – ALEXANDRAKOLLONTAI, BECKERMET, THE NIFTY FOX
20/80 – BECKERMET
EXOTICS – ALEXANDRAKOLLONTAI, BECKERMET, THE NIFTY FOX
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High most certainly favoured….whether they are good enough to take advantage, we’ll know later.
ADVICE – I have three in my top six all drawn “right” but the highest rated of those may well prefer it a tad slower underfoot. It’s a cracking good race for a Monday afternoon and one I’m looking very much forward to watching….if a tad scared from that punting perspective!
Now, if you’ve not seen it yet and if you can, do so. Keep an eye on the stalls as they open and watch what happens to the horse drawn right next to the rails, ALEXANDRAKOLLONTAI. Owner and trainer will be gutted this little play didn’t pan out because that horse had been primed for yesterday.
My figures and reading of the race were, I feel, spot on. You needed a high draw….despite stall 2 providing the winner (that horse has performed brilliantly to win yesterday), and the three I selected for my dutch came home 2nd, 3rd and 5th – 11/1, 7/1 and 20/1. Four of the first six home were to be found in my top six rated horses and that’s always the accuracy I’m looking for.
But that’s racing. No matter how good any system of finding winners is, if something happens in a race to render it all a waste of time, we are snookered.
I have been inundated with e-mails these past couple of weeks and have been sitting in bed until turned 11-30pm some nights, responding to them. I’m looking to catch up on more tomorrow but with so much going on here it may be a few days before I can get back to everyone….please bear with me on that.
Today is mighty busy…..like a Saturday so, best we get cracking.
GOODWOOD – Flat (Updated:03/09/2013 at 07:19:30)
Round Good to Firm, Good in places
(GoingStick: 8.0 on Tuesday at 07:00)
Straight Stand Side
Lower Bend dolled out 7 yards from the 6 furlong marker to
the 2 furlong marker in the straight increasing distances
on that course by 12 yards.Top bend dolled out 3 yards
increasing distances on that course by 6 yards.
Dry overnight, and a dry day ahead
LEICESTER – Flat (Updated:03/09/2013 at 06:43:59)
Good to Firm, Good in places (Watered)
(GoingStick: 8.3 on Tuesday at 06:30)
Straight- Centre. Round- Inside.
Forecast: Dry with sunny spells max temp 23c.
LINGFIELD PARK – Flat (Updated:03/09/2013 at 06:45:22)
Turf Straight Course: Good to Firm, Firm in Places (Watered)
(GoingStick: 8.7 on Monday at 15:30)
Turf: Stands Side
Turf Straight Course: Stands rail has been moved in 3 metres
reducing the safety factor to 15.
Tuesday – Dry and sunny, 23C.
Friday August 30th – 8mm water applied
Saturday August 31st – No watering
Sunday September 1st – No watering
Monday September 2nd – 5mm water applied
Clerk of the Course: Neil Mackenzie Ross (07917 326977)
MUSSELBURGH – Flat (Updated:03/09/2013 at 07:04:49)
Good to Firm
(GoingStick: 8.1 on Tuesday at 07:15)
2m and 5f Stands Side
The stands bend out 3 metres on to fresh ground
No overnight rain. Dry and Breezy AM
Tuesday – Dry and bright Windy dropping, 20c.
Watered Sunday (8mm)
* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses perceived as being best drawn
§*SLIP SLIDING AWAY….+11
THREE TO DUTCH – SLIP SLIDING AWAY, TIME MEDICEAN, TIDENTIME
20/80 – TIDENTIME
EXOTICS – SLIP SLIDING AWAY, TIME MEDICEAN, TIDENTIME
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Middle look marginally preferred to low with high up against it.
ADVICE – My top pair would appear to have everything spot on except, perhaps, for the fact they simply aint good enough. They have been given decent draws to run from and tony Carroll gives my second highest rated horse it’s first run on turf in 2013 but, both my top pair have lots to prove. I’m having them in my dutch because if my figures are right and they run up to them, I’d look a right plank if I wasn’t on. However, it’s the Channon horse that gets my solo play – well enough drawn, ground right and back to the trip he last won over having been upped to seven furlongs the last three times.
*QUEST FOR MORE….-6
DUKE OF GRAZEON….-30
*DANCE WITH DRAGONS….+19
ADVICE – As we saw yesterday, the three year old held sway in the all aged handicaps and I knew as soon as I had finished working on them what was going to happen. I hope I made it clear enough in the text yesterday that the likes of Pilates, Mizyen and that Irish one, Lindenhurst, all had my brain fogged and that punting those races would probably mean waving bye bye to the shekels. We just have to do one of two things in such events. Trust the figures or, walk away. Here, with a 3-y-o top rated, I’ll trust ’em…..but it’s an October Rules type play.
*BLACK ANNIS BOWER….+11
§THE DARK WIZARD….+4
THREE TO DUTCH – CLOCK OPERA, THE DARK WIZARD, ARTFUL LADY
20/80 – CLOCK OPERA
EXOTICS – CLOCK OPERA, THE DAR WIZARD, ARTFUL LADY
LAY – SHAOLIN
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low much preferred
ADVICE – My suggested lay is drawn perfectly, they try a tongue tie first time today but, he’s dropping back in trip and that might count against him. Of course, it might not and we may see he improves for it but like it says on the t-shirt, until they have, they haven’t. I’ll work with the three suggested and hope the last time out win of CLOCK OPERA wasn’t a fluke.
§HILLS OF DAKOTA….-1
LOOK ON BY….-5
JOSHUA THE FIRST….-15
THREE TO DUTCH – GONINODAETHAT, SUMMER DANCER, MILITARY CALL
20/80 – GONINODAETHAT
EXOTICS – GONINODAETHAT, SUMMER DANCER, MILITARY CALL
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low/middle look the place to be but the winner could come from anywhere here.
ADVICE – Top three for my own bets. Many of these have been on the go for most of the season and we’ll see some tired legs out there.
*MR DREAM MAKER….-14
ADVICE – That Irish one that spogged my brain yesterday may well turn out again here and if he does, he’s got every chance of winning it but you know me and horses running twice in 24 hours! I’ll just work with my top three and hope LINDENHURST a) doesn’t turn up or b), that second run in 24 hours takes it’s toll.
*HERE NOW AND WHY….+10
*IRISH GIRLS SPIRIT….+5
THREE TO DUTCH – PAVERS STAR, HERE NOW AND WHY, BEAUTY PAGEANT
20/80 – PAVERS STAR
EXOTICS – PAVERS STAR, HERE NOW AND WHY, BEAUTY PAGEANT
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Looking likely high will be best but it’s not enough of a bias to have me looking away from my top three.
ADVICE – Seriously competitive for a Class 6 event and a cracking good end to a fine days race in Scotland. As mentioned above I’ll work with my figures and hopefully extract a profit of some kind but it’s one of “those races”….run it again Wednesday, Thursday and Friday and we’d get a different result.
*WE HAVE A DREAM….+12
ADVICE – Mighty competitive and again Mark Johnston is after ruining my day by planting a twice raced three year old in an all aged handicap. In all likelihood SPIN ARTIST continues on his upward curve and wins with Callan lighting up the Hamlet but it’s that t-shirt thing again. I’ll see how things have gone through the day before setting up a play here as it might just be one I myself watches only.
MARTIAN (Goodwood 2-20) – straight win
TEA IN TRANSVAAL (Goodwood 2-55) – straight win
BET OF THE DAY
BROXBOURNE (Goodwood 4-40) – 20/80
LAY OF THE DAY
THE E.W. DOUBLE
I’m considering leaving these novelty bets alone now we have hit September but if I spot something worth posting up, I will do so.
Have a great day and the very best of luck if you are punting