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Today’s Ratings and Advice 23/08/13

Yesterday those playing just the top rated horse, to BFSP, went 5.48pts clear of that 200 point “barrier” and I’ve now been challenged to make it 250. I should add, at this point, that the profit is before BF commissions but irrespective, it’s some feat that is being performed, if I may be allowed to say so myself. This month alone, in just 22 days, my top rated horse has achieved a points profit of 75.48pts and even I’m staggered by that figure.

I mentioned on Facebook last night that the layers should be trembling in their boots now because I’m an NH man and do even better at the winter game so, give me the ground this winter, and I’ll be looking to produce the profits made this summer and some.

The flat season ends for me on September 30th and it’s then I look for my two week “break” and to set up my “sighters” for the new season. This year I’m away from October 5th but every day you will still receive a Newsletter containing nuggets….hence the “” either side of the word break!

August is a seriously busy month for me as it’s holiday time for the rest of the population and that effectively means wall to wall racing….and this bank holiday weekend will mean little by way of sleep but hopefully plenty of winners.

Today we have five meetings for me to work my way through so I’ll get on with it….apologies for this coming out late but it’s like a Saturday!

Assumptions:

GOODWOOD – Flat (Updated:23/08/2013 at 07:17:17)
Going
Good.
(GoingStick: 7.5 on Friday at 07:00)

Stalls
Straight stand side

Rails
Lower bend dolled out 4 yards increasing distances on that
course by 8 yards .

Weather
Dry overnight and a dry day ahead.

HAMILTON PARK – Flat (Updated:23/08/2013 at 06:42:53)
Going
Good to Firm, Good in places (Watered)
(GoingStick: 8.3 on Wednesday at 11:00)

Stalls
2yrs 6F & 1M 4f – Standside

Rails
All official race distances apply for this meeting.
Saving ground on home straight reducing Safety Factor for
6F races to 14 and 5F races to 13.

Weather
Dry overnight. Fog early morning, forecast to brighten up
mid-morning, chance of a shower early afternoon otherwise
dry all day (Max temp 19C).

Watering
Watered home straight to maintain on Thursday (6mm).

NEWCASTLE – Flat (Updated:23/08/2013 at 06:41:24)
Going
Good to Firm, Good in pls
(GoingStick: 7.5 on Thursday at 15:00)

Stalls
All STRAIGHT races: FARSIDE

Rails
Move 2m on round course after 16th Aug to provide fresh ground on
the round course

Weather
Dry overnight & heavy dew.
Set to remain that way until late afternoon with temps up to 21c.
Rain moving in from 4pm onwards. Some heavier showers mixed in.
A min of 5-6mm likely & then more persistent rain through night.

Watering
No watering planned due to forecast

NEWMARKET – Flat (Updated:23/08/2013 at 07:12:10)
Going
Good, Good to Firm in places
(GoingStick: 7.1 on Friday at 06:30)

Stalls
Stand Side Course

Weather
7mm rain Wednesday night, further 5mm during Thursday. Currently
overcast. Friday expected to be dry and bright with
temperatures of around 25C.

Other
Acting Clerk of the Course: Jane Hedley – 07881 316027.

YORK – Flat (Updated:23/08/2013 at 07:37:41)
Going
Good to Soft
Goingstick: overall 6.6; home straight: farside – 6.3;
centre – 6.3; standside – 6.1.
(GoingStick: 6.6 on Friday at 07:30)

Stalls
5f, 5f89yrds, 6f, 1m1f & 1m4f – centre; remainder – inside rail.

Rails
Planned rail movements: Friday and Saturday – rail on back
straight and home bend moved 3m to create fresh ground adding 7
yards to distances of races of 1m and over.

Weather
Rainfall: 20mm thunderstorm between 10pm and 11.30pm Thursday.
Current conditions on Friday early morning: dry, broken cloud,
warm. Metoffice forecast: Friday – dry, sunny spells and warm
morning and early afternoon – 24 degrees. Rain front arriving
through region later on Friday afternoon / evening, thundery
rain possible overnight. Saturday morning – showers clearing by
lunchtime to leave cloudy, largely dry afternoon, 20 degrees.

Watering
Irrigation: program on Thursday night cancelled, prior to
commencement, due to thunderstorm.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses perceived as being best drawn

YORK 1-55

§*GOSPEL CHOIR….+13
§*CASTILO DEL DIABLO….+10
*CHANCERY….+9
§*QUIXOTE….+9
§*TEPMOKEA….+6
*HANOVERIAN BARON….+1
§*RIO’S ROSANNA….+/-0
*WARLU WAY….-5
§WHITE NILE….-17
ITLAAQ….-22
*COME ON BLUE CHIP….-25
*PRESBURG….-30
KIAMA BAY….-33
PARTY LINE….-36
SCATTER DICE….-40
WINTERLUDE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – GOSPEL CHOIR, CASTILO DEL DIABLO, QUIXOTE
20/80 – GOSPEL CHOIR
EXOTICS – GOSPEL CHOIR, CASTILO DEL DIABLO, QUIXOTE
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low preferred

ADVICE – Brilliant race to start the afternoon’s punting and hopefully my figures speak true because I’m working with them as indicated. What everyone has to be acutely aware of though is that, as happened in the first rated York race yesterday. Because of the plethora of non-runners it effectively nullified the draw bias I had worked on and it became more important to me at that point to concentrate on those best suited to the quick ground. MONT RAS, sitting 2nd best on my figures, was brought into my dutch and duly obliged. That is how I myself works and I know it must be galling for those that had followed how I was going to play, gone to work and returned home to find they had a losing race, whilst it became a winning race for those fortunate enough to be in a position to change tack.
Hopefully we do not have several pulled out here and we can simply get on with it.

NEWMARKET 5-35

MY KINGDOM….+9
MAYAASEM….+3
BILLYRAYVALENTINE….-2
*JOHNNY CASTLE….-4
SALOOMY….-10
*PIAZZA SAN PIETRO….-11

ADVICE – Not a race I myself will be punting. My top rated has had 20 shots at winning on good to firm and placed just three times. My second highest rated has had just three tires on this ground…unplaced each time. Enough said, really.

GOODWOOD 6-45

*LINKS DRIVE LADY….+8
TASSEL….-1
*LA FORTUNATA….-10
*BADR AL BADOOR….-10
*DANCHEUR….-10
MIDNIGHT FLOWER….-16
STRICTLY SILCA….-21
NARDIN….-23

ADVICE – I have one clear on my figures but that 3-y-o sitting fourth best on my numbers looks set to scupper them. she has improved no end for the fitting of head gear and because she’s in here I’ll settle for a 20/80 my top rated and hopefully squeeze a profit from the race. I’ll only play if all eight go to post.

GOODWOOD 7-20

*AYE AYE DIGBY….+3
*THE STRIG….-4
*COMMANDINGPRESENCE….-6
*SIX WIVES….-7
*INGLEBY STAR….-7
*AMENABLE….-15
PICANSORT….-18
SIR GEOFFREY….-29

ADVICE – Not a classic but competitive enough. For me personally I like horses that have proven they can race here as it’s a funky track. my top rated is twice a winner here, they’ve booked the top man to ride him and I’m hoping another 20/80 brings in a profit….again though, I’m only punting this if all eight trot down to the start.

NEWCASTLE 5-55

*ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE….+9
*ORBIT THE MOON….+9
*WHISPERED TIMES….+8
*STRONG MAN….+5
§*WHO’S SHIRL….+4
ANDIAMO VIA….+/-0
§*JEBEL TARA….-1
§*MUTAFAAKIR….-4
*NEW LEYF….-8
*JUST THE TONIC….-14
TED’S BROTHER….-16
§APACHE RISING….-21

THREE TO DUTCH – ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE, ORBIT THE MOON, WHISPERED TIMES
20/80 – ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE
EXOTICS – ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE, ORBIT THE MOON, WHISPERED TIMES
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High look decidedly favoured

ADVICE – They do but….you have to descend to my fifth highest rated horse to find one I’d consider punting from my top six, that have going and draw right but she is a six furlong horse and despite being twice a CD winner (the last time in 2010, not won in four attempts here since), I cannot have the mare in my play. I have opted to work with the three that look drawn “second best”, proven on the ground they have forecast and we’ll see if I’m right.

NEWCASTLE 6-25

AEGAEUS….+10
*JAWAAB….-9
MEMORY CLOTH….-13
*DISCAY….-14
COCKNEY SPARROW….-19
*HIGH ON A HILL….-21
EBONY EXPRESS….-28
NEXT EDITION….-34
HANDSOME RANSOM….-40
ROYAL PECULIAR….-40

ADVICE – Not a race that appeals much as a player but I’ve three in my top six marked * and I might just pop a dutch on.

NEWCASTLE 6-55

DANDARRELL….+9
*AERODYNAMIC….+8
*CAMEROONEY….+2
§*TUKITINYASOK….-1
MIXED MESSAGE….-5
§THATCHERITE….-9
§CHANGE THE SUBJECT….-16
§MORAL ISSUE….-19
§MONTHLY MEDAL….-19
BUNCE….-22
HILLS OF DAKOTA….-27
LILIARGH….-27
§THE LODGE ROAD….-30
INDIAN GIVER….-32
KHAJAALY….-39
CAPE SAMBA….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – AERODYNAMIC, CAMEROONEY, TUKITINYASOK
20/80 – AERODYNAMIC
EXOTICS – AERODYNAMIC, CAMEROONEY, TUKITINYASOK
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DAW BIAS – High just preferred

ADVICE – I am really struggling to find a decent lay bet right now. MIXED MESSAGE currently trades tissue favourite but had he not been in my top six rated, I’d have gone right after her….a mixed message alright! This is not a race I’m looking forward to. It’s low grade but very competitive but my hopes are pinned on the top weight, my second highest rated, to do something. THATCHERITE is the one winking at me and has he had winning form on good to firm, he would have been my solo play here, from what looks a good draw but nine unplaced efforts from nine attempts on it suggest he’s more than a little vulnerable.

NEWCASTLE 7-30

*DARTRIX….+8
*GRAN CANARIA QUEEN….-5
*SILKELLY….-9
DARK OPAL….-17
RAY OF JOY….-19
LULU THE ZULU….-24
STAR REQUEST….-30

ADVICE – Top two dutch, straight win DARTRIX and an exotic.

HAMILTON 6-35

*BARKSTON ASH….+11
*SALVATORE FURY….+10
*KLYNCH….+9
SPIN ARTIST….+9
§*SUNRAIDER….+8
§BONNIE CHARLIE….+1
PITT RIVERS….-1
§LIVE DANGEROUSLY….-15
JINKY….-17
§FREE SPIN….-23

THREE TO DUTCH – BARKSTON ASH, SALVATORE FURY, KLYNCH
20/80 – BARKSTON ASH
EXOTICS – BARKSTON ASH, SALVATORE FURY, KLYNCH
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low marginally preferred but diddly in it really.

ADVICE – I’m not going to overcomplicate this. Top three for my own bets despite my thinking my top one is probably worst drawn of the lot. his form figures here read 231225 and with the head gear back on tonight he’s hopefully hitting the frame at the very least.

HAMILTON 7-05

*NIMIETY….+10
*SPECIAL MEANING….+10
*TENHOO….+9
*CERTAVI….+5
*SIRVINO….+2
FEDERAL BLUE….-3
*HAWDYERWHEESHT….-8
*COSMIC SUN….-10
*COSMIC HALO….-17
CHOISAN….-18
WAR POET….-19
NOBLE ALAN….-21
ENTIHAA….-22
PERENNIAL….-27
FORT BELVEDERE….-35

ADVICE – A doozie of a race. However, if Mark Johnston isn’t collecting the Silver Bell come 7-15pm my guess is he’ll be wondering why. He has my top two rated plus that thing sitting sixth best running for him and a top two dutch will hopefully secure the profits to pay for my 20/80 NIMIETY and my exotics.

HAMILTON 8-10

§MAGIC ICE….+16
AMBITIOUS ICARUS….+14
*SAXONETTE….+10
§*GOTTCHER….+9
§*RIO’S GIRL….+8
*CARRIE’S MAGIC….+8
§ROCK CANYON….+1
*DISTANT SUN….-2
*WICKED WILMA….-6
§CAYMAN FOX….-6
*ROY’S LEGACY….-10
ROYAL DUCHESS….-15
RED ROAR….-16

THREE TO DUTCH – SAXONETTE, GOTTCHER, RIO’S GIRL
20/80 – SAXONETTE
EXOTICS – SAXONETTE, GOTTCHER, RIO’S GIRL
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High again marginally preferred.

ADVICE – A Class 6 to finish but it’s a cracker. GOTTCHER looks the most obvious pick and he’s the highest rated horse having §* next to his name but I’m going to work as suggested because the draw bias isn’t that bad and SAXONETTE is only a few boxes down from the tissue favourite.

OF INTEREST

SOLE POWER (York 3-40) – straight win
GOLDEN TOWN (York 4-20) – 20/80
DANCING SANDS (Newmarket 2-10) – 20/80
STAGEMANSHIP (Newmarket 2-45) – straight win
ALMUHALAB (Newmarket 3-20) – 20/80
HYMENAIOS (Goodwood 5-40) – straight win
DJINNI (Goodwood 6-15) – straight win
CHARLEMAGNE DIVA (Hamilton 6-05) – 20/80

BET OF THE DAY

ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE looks like he’ll be very difficult to keep out of the frame in that Newcastle 5-55 and he’ll be a decent 20/80 at this end.

LAY OF THE DAY

None again I’m afraid….they are like hens teeth at the moment!

THE E.W. DOUBLE

ILLUSTRIOUS PRICE (Newcastle 5-55)
STAGEMANSHIP (Newmarket 2-45)

THE BETFAIR CHALLENGE

PLAY TO PLACE – ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE (Newcastle 5-55)
PLAY TO LAY – None today

Have a brilliant day and the very best of luck if you are getting involved

Kindest regards

Ron

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