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Today’s Ratings and Advice 15/08/13

Another superb day’s punting that could have been much, much better had Ryan Moore not been setting light to a Hamlet when the pace quickened in Hippy Hippy Shake’s race. He was lengths out of his ground when they turned for home and he failed by just 1/2 a length to give 13lb to the winner, trained by his boss, Sir Michael Stoute. It cost those who indulged in the e.w. double a few £’s too as the other one in that play, Unison, won @ 7/2.

We are now just .88pt away from that 200 points profit for the season following another three top rated winners yesterday. I have to confess it has become a distraction and I will be glad when we’ve passed it and can move forward.

The new Newsletter format has been well received, not a single complaint and that’s pleasing. I have a couple of things I myself want to address and I’ll have a chat to our developer, Adam, today. Several people e-mailed to say some of the links were not working and that the race anchor points (clicking the name of a top rated horse to view the race in the body of the Newsletter), were not working but we ourselves had absolutely no issues with any and we’ll see if we can find out just why some did.

Today is mighty busy and best we set to task…

Assumptions:

BEVERLEY – Flat (Updated:15/08/2013 at 06:41:17)
Going
Good to Firm
(GoingStick: 8.6 on Wednesday at 07:00)

Stalls
Inside (all races)

Rails
The rail around the bottom bend is now back in it’s original,
wide position – all race distances as advertised

Weather
STARTED TO RAIN AT 6.20AM
Showers forecast throughout the day, possibly heavy at times, so
going likely to ease before racing, but track does take it well.

Other
Entire track has been verti-drained since the last meeting.

CHEPSTOW – Flat (Updated:15/08/2013 at 06:36:42)
Going
Good to Soft
4mm of rain in last 24hrs
(GoingStick: 6.9 on Thursday at 06:30)

Stalls
Straight Course (5f – 1m) Middle

Weather
Forecast: Showers (2-3mm) and sunny spells, max temp 23C.

Watering
8mm of irrigation applied all round Tuesday and Weds am.

NEWMARKET – Flat (Updated:14/08/2013 at 13:41:29)
Going
Good to Firm (Watered)
(GoingStick: 7.8 on Wednesday at 07:30)

Stalls
Far Side Course

Rails
The re-positioning of the bend into the home straight has
increased the distance of the 10f race by 16m.

Weather
Wednesday ; Largely dry and with sunny spells.
Thursday & Friday ; Sunny spells and showers.
Saturday ; Largely dry and sunny until rain late afternoon.

Watering
10mm applied to the course on Monday.

SALISBURY – Flat (Updated:15/08/2013 at 07:56:38)
Going
Good, Good to Firm in places
(GoingStick: To be updated 11.30am today on Thursday at 07:45)

Stalls
6F & 1M – Far side

Weather
Wednesday was overcast with 0.5mm rain before racing. 0.7mm rain
overnight on Wednesday. Thursday expected to be 21’C, cloudy,
some bright spells, moderate breeze, humid.

* indicate horses having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses perceived as being best drawn

SALISBURY 3-25

*JAVA ROSE….-14
*INFINITE HOPE….-18
*BANTAM….-19
SHALWA….-21
PIVOTAL SILENCE….-24
PROSPERA….-25
*CHORAL FESTIVAL….-29

ADVICE – I will just play my top two here, dutch, 20/80 my top one and an exotic.

SALISBURY 4-30

*MY OWN WAY HOME….+5
*RENOIR’S LADY….-3
*COMMANDINGPRESENCE….-14
TALQAA….-19
AMBER HEIGHTS….-21
CATALINA’S DIAMOND….-31
TREGERETH….-35
OUR SWEET HEART….-35

ADVICE – I have two clear on my figures, one only obtaining a + figure and I’ll just have me a dutch that pair, go straight win my top one and pop an exotic on. If greed kicks in then top three in that order, for a tricast.

NEWMARKET 2-40

*WILLOW BECK….+10
*GREYLAMI….+7
*JUVENAL….+2
*THEODORE GERICAULT….+1
ON MY OWN….-6
*CLASSIC PUNCH….-7
*LIVIA’S DREAM….-17
*FLOW….-24

ADVICE – Any of the eight could win this and I have no idea what we’ll see from my bottom rated as his figure pertains to his juvenile form and he’s making his seasonal bow here, one of two 3-y-o’s in the race. I will jus work with my figures here and we’ll hopefully trouser a profit.

NEWMARKET 3-15

*CONSIGN….+9
*FARLOW….+6
*SKYTRAIN….+/-0
*POISSON D’OR….-3
*AMADEUS WOLFE TONE….-10
*AZREAL….-15
*FRONT PAGE NEWS….-25
BENONI….-26
PIDDIE’S POWER….-33
BALTI’S SISTER….-34

ADVICE – My top rated was a massive disappointment at Windsor recently…but then, so was I!! I’m not donning the Ghostbusters suit here, just working with what I have and playing my top three ditched, which will hopefully pay for the 20/80 CONSIGN and the exotics.

NEWMARKET 5-25

*TITUS GENT….+8
*SMOKETHATTHUNDERS….-3
*AMENABLE….-4
*ZIGGY’S SECRET….-4
*TIDAL’S BABY….-7
ANGEL WAY….-16
MACDILLON….-17
FLASH CITY….-20

ADVICE – One of those races that could go any way and it’ll depend on who wants it and who doesn’t, today. Top three for my own bets here.

BEVERLEY 2-00

*GRAMMAR….+11
*JEER…+9
*DEAN IARRACHT….+5
*LIGHT THE CITY….-1
*VALANTINO OYSTER….-2
*CROFTAMIE….-12
POLITBUREAU….-22
VALENTINE’S GIFT….-22
VOLCANIC JACK….-24
DUEEN OF EPIRUS….-34
EANANS BAY….-34
SOUTER POINT….-40

ADVICE – Again no draw bias to put me off my figures and it’s a top three dutch, 20/80 GRAMMAR and exotics.

BEVERLEY 3-05

ELUSIVE BONUS….+13
*INGENTI….+10
*FOREIGN RHYTHM….+8
§*RANGOONED….+4
*MEY BLOSSOM….-3
*LADY KILDARE….-8
PHOENIX CLUBS….-14
§BALINKA….-16
JOSEFA GOYA….-18
§FRIENDSHIP IS LOVE….-27

ADVICE – A no bet race for me. The pair holding up the figures are three year olds coming here with just two runs on the board. I have absolutely no methodology available that will enable me to accurately rate such horses and so, I’ll just watch. Those top rated punters….you have been warned!

BEVERLEY 3-35

ITALIAN RIVIERA….+15
TARTAN JURA….+11
DR IRV….+11
MOJOLIKA….+1
ALMAGEST….-11
NASHVILLE….-11
STREET ENTERTAINER….-20
HARRISON’S CAVE….-21

ADVICE – Long distance jobby and it’s just an October Rules play for me….if anything.

CHEPSTOW 5-45

*TANFORAN….+4
§MR FICKLE….-5
§COMPTON BIRD….-9
§DEVON DIVA….-14
MY STROPPY POPPY….-15
*TWEEDLE DEE….-18
§SPINNING RIDGE….-19
§ROXY LANE….-27
POLISH RIDER….-27
KOMREYEV STAR….-33
AMERICAN KISS….-24
CHEERS BIG EARS….-29
JUST RIVER….-29
GIFTED HEIR….-29
LAMBERT PEN….-29
§AUREOLIN GULF….-30

THREE TO DUTCH – TANFORAN, MR FICKLE, COMPTON BIRD
20/80 – TANFORAN
EXOTICS – TANFORAN, MR FICKLE, COMPTON BIRD
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low.high preferred to middle.

ADVICE – Ultra low grade stuff and I’ll play as indicated but to seriously low staking.

CHEPSTOW 7-15

NELLIE FORBUSH….+8
CAPTAIN OATS….+/-0
CAPRISKA….-3
DUSTY LARK….-13
FALCUN….-16
NICKY NUTJOB….-25
LUCKSTER….-27
PRINCESS FLEUR….-33
DUCHESS OF DREAMS….-36
OUTBACK….-37
HONEY HAVEN….-40
FITZWILLY….-40
MAID OF SILK….-40
LACEY….-40

ADVICE – Why have I even bothered rating this? A 18 furlong romp around Wales for horses that have never won a race before. If only they hadn’t added the word “Handicap”, I could have ignored it! If you punt this then you need medical assistance!

CHEPSTOW 7-45

GLENS WOBBLY….+14
*ROCK PEAK….+8
STEELY….-5
*RED CURRANT….-6
ARCH EVENT….-22
ENDURA….-32
RUN OF THE DAY….-35
FAUSTINATHEYOUNGER….-40
PRECISION STRIKE….-40
RICHO….-40
UP IN FLAMES….-40

ADVICE – Not quite as bad as that one above it but by crikey, not far off it. Chepstow really are putting on a show tonight….not. October Rules or go do something else.

CHEPSTOW 8-15

*BELLE PARK….+17
BONDI MIST….+15
*JAMES POLLARD….+9
GLOBAL RECOVERY….+/-0
*EUROQUIP BOY….-10
ERNEST SPEAK….-30
LA ROSIERE….-39
ANOTHER SQUEEZE….-40
WHITEFALL….-40
PRESENT DAY….-40
PEARLA….-40

ADVICE – I sincerely hope we are well into the 200’s by the time we arrive at this evening meeting, that’s all I can say. Shocking racing.

OF INTEREST

CRYSTAL NYMPH (Salisbury 1-50) – straight win
PARADISE WATCH (Salisbury 2-50) – straight win
REMEMBER (Newmarket 2-10) – straight win
SEEK AGAIN (Newmarket 4-20) – straight win
GEORGE ROOKE (Newmarket 4-50) – 20/80
AN CHULAINN (Beverley 2-30) – 20/80
BY THE LIGHT (Beverley 4-10) – 20/80

THE BETFAIR CHALLENGE

PLAY TO LAY – NONE TODAY
PLAY TO PLACE – NONE TODAY

THE E.W. DOUBLE

REMEMBER (Newmarket 2-10)
WILLOW BECK (Newmarket 2-40)

Have a great day and the very best of luck if you are punting!

Kindest regards

Ron

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