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Today’s Ratings and Advice 12/08/13

Such is the fine line between success and failure, when punting racehorses for a living. With it being Leicester and Windsor yesterday I already knew (or had a very good idea), what was going to happen because….it’s Windsor and Leicester. For some reason I cannot explain, results there are just sometimes unfathomable. I was as confident as I could be Lord Franklin would run a big race and he did…but was caught on the line and beaten a short head by a horse who had seen more finishing in front of it in eight of its last nine races, wearing cheekpieces for the first time and going off at 20/1. Had we hung on, it would have been a day we came about about level but, as I say, it’s a very fine line we tread.

Imitation….the sincerest form of flattery apparently. Yesterday I was advised of someone who was selling a daily ratings system and asked if I knew of them. They provided me with a link to the Facebook page of the “organisation” calling themselves Winning Ratings and what I found was “mini-me”.

An example of “their” work…with post race “result” text that if I didn’t know better, had been written by me!…(except the wow bit….I’m banned from wow’s and booms).

5.30
1. Sally Friday20 p +32 2ND 13/8
2. Spiekeroog20 h +25 3RD 7/1
3. Spats Colombo22 +18 1ST 5/2
4. Attansky7 p +12 4TH 11/2
5. Dean Iarracht14 p -7 5TH 12/1
6. Word Of Warning56J -8 6TH 25/1
7. Yourholidayisover23 -22
8. Roc Fort12 p -22
9. Speedy Star58 p -34

RESULT: WOW WHAT MORE COULD BE SAID THE 1ST 6 HOME WERE IN MY TOP 6 AND THOSE WHO PLAYED MY TOP 3 LANDED A 6/1 FORECAST AND A 22/1 TRICAST BUT THE MOST PLEASING PART WAS THE ACCURACY

My work on that same race:

REDCAR 5-30
*SALLY FRIDAY….+13 – 2ND 13/8
*SPIEKEROOG….+4 – 3RD
*DEAN IARRACHT….-4 – 5TH
*SPATS COLOMBO….-16 – WON
ATTANSKY….-21 – 4TH
WORD OF WARNING….-31 – 6TH
SPEEDY STAR….-40
ROC FORT….-40
YOURHOLIDAYISOVER….-40

ADVICE – Nasty….October Rules or go do something else.

RESULT – As you know for me it’s all about rating a race and then looking inside my top six for a play….here the figures were blindingly good in that respect but it was just the top three I looked at for my winner….and the fourth highest rated took it.

They have tweaked a few things, dressed their figures up in the same way and it smacks of plagiarism.

As soon as I posted on my Facebook wall that I was concerned someone was using my work as their own the person responsible sent me a private message more or less right away, protesting their innocence….then another…and another….in all 15 messages in six minutes. You know the old saying about those that do protest something to much?

Anonymity on these social media sites should be banned. I have no idea who this person is in reality, the location it is suggested they live in could quite easily be bogus and for all I know it could be someone subscribed to my work, then dressing it up as their own. This person had been a Facebook “friend” since 2010 and I found a thread dating back to that year in which he was castigating someone else for doing exactly the same thing back then. I would post that thread in here but the language from a few respondents gets a bit ripe and it’s not really needed…you get the picture.

I have to say at this point that if we do ever find out that it is a member of Post Racing then they’ll be gone….no refunds and we will look at taking legal action if deemed appropriate.

It’s a bit like me writing a book about a young Warlock called Barry Snotter, who is a bit of a bully at Dogfarts, the school of magic he attends and not expecting a knock on the door from the Potter police!

Assumptions:

AYR – Flat (Updated:12/08/2013 at 06:26:30)
Going
Good
(GoingStick: 8.9 on Monday at 06:15)

Stalls
5f & 6f: Stands’ Side

Rails
Home bend moved out 8m adding approx. 24yds to race
distances 7f and further

Weather
Past 24hrs 1.5 mm of rain.
Monday – Showers possible throughout the day (< 3 mm) Recent rainfall: Sun - 1.5mm; Sat - 1.5mm; Fri - 1mm; Thurs - 7mm THIRSK - Flat (Updated:12/08/2013 at 06:45:54) Going Good, Good to Firm in Places (Watered) (GoingStick: 8.8 on Sunday at 10:00) Stalls Straight Course - Stands' Side Weather Dry overnight; fair morning forecast, but thundery showers expected to move across the region this afternoon. WINDSOR - Flat (Updated:12/08/2013 at 07:32:40) Going Good to Firm.(Watered) Going Stick Reading to Follow. Stalls 1m 2f abt 7yds:- Centre. Rails Inner of straight dolled out 16yds at 6f and 9yds at the Winning Post. Top bend dolled out 8yds from normal inner configuration, adding 34yds to race distances of 1m+ Weather Dry overnight. Monday:- dry with sunny intervals 20c. Watering 3mm irrigation applied to the whole of the racecourse. * indicates horses having won on the going as currently described § indicates horses perceived as best drawn AYR 3-00 *BURNWYND BOY....+11 §*BERBICE....+8 GONINODAETHAT....+4 *CLUMBER PLACE....+1 §LIL SOPHELLA....-7 *CARRIE'S MAGIC....-9 LUCY BEE....-11 FIFE JO....-20 §BAKER'S PURSUIT....-25 §BLACKAMOOR HARRY....-29 §COPPER TO GOLD....-33 LAST MINUTE LISA....-34 SPREAD BOY....-40 THREE TO DUTCH - BURNWYND BOY, BERBICE, CLUMBER PLACE 20/80 - BURNWYND BOY EXOTICS - BURNWYND BOY, BERBICE, CLUMBER PLACE LAY - NONE PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS - Low much preferred - middle/high much of a muchness. ADVICE - BERBICE has everything right...going, draw, spot on but....he has not won on turf since June 2007. Those drawn low look like they'll need wind assistance and so I'm going to put complete faith in my numbers here. AYR 3-30 *SILVER RIME....+/-0 *ROCK SUPREME....-3 *ANOTHER FOR JOE....-4 TECTONIC....-8 *TOUFAN EXPRESS....-19 *STAR LINKS....-21 DUBIOUS ESCAPADE....-28 ADORABLE CHOICE....-29 CONO ZUR....-31 MU'AJIZA....-38 ADVICE - We have a brace having travelled from the Emerald Isle, a Mark Johnston 3-y-o making handicap debut (bottom rated), and everything here points towards brewing up, as opposed to punting. Typhoo or October Rules? AYR 4-00 §*OPT OUT....+11 §*SALVATORE FURY....+11 §*JEANNIE GALLOWAY....+11 §*GO GO GREEN....+10 *ROKER PARK....+9 *LITTLE JIMMY ODSOX....+9 FLIGHTY CLARETS....-3 FINDOG....-13 PITT RIVERS....-17 ECONOMIC CRISIS....-26 §BORIS GRIGORIEV....-30 THREE TO DUTCH - OPT OUT, SALVATORE FURY, JEANNIE GALLOWAY 20/80 - SALVATORE FURY EXOTICS - OPT OUT, SALVATORE FURY, JEANNIE GALLOWAY LAY - NONE PRECEIVED DRAW BIAS - Middle (by a millimetre), preferred. ADVICE - Keith Dalgleish saddled the winner of this race 12 months ago and his pair are in my top three and sit joint favourite on the morning tissue. They have achieved exactly the same rating, are both drawn right, have the ground perfect and I fully expect one of them to win it. OPT OUT tops my figures on a piece of what most would probably describe as "mental' criteria but, it's something I always apply and it's served me well in the past. AYR 5-00 *FULL TOSS....+8 *KASHMIR PEAK....-3 AWAKE MY SOUL....-5 *FORT BELVEDERE....-7 GINGER JACK....-14 SPIRIT OF THE LAW....-19 DERSET REVOLUTION....-28 PIVOT BRIDGE....-29 ADVICE - David O'Meara seems determined to get something of of AWAKE MY SOUL but he looks a horse going backwards. I think the winner is in my top two and I'll just work with them. AYR 5-30 §*AMELIA JAY....+12 §*DISTANT SUN....+8 §*WICKED WILMA....+4 *QUAROMA....-1 §*FOL HOLLOW....-10 SAXONETTE....-11 *ROCK CANYON....-13 *HERE NOW AND WHY....-16 §LIZZY'S DREAM....-19 COMPTON HEIGHTS....-19 ROYAL BAJAN....-27 PASTORAL PREY....-31 THREE TO DUTCH - AMELIA JAY, DISTANT SUN, WICKED WILMA 20/80 - AMELIA JAY EXOTICS - AMELIA JAY, DISTANT SUN, WICKED WILMA LAY - NONE PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS - Low preferred to middle, high just off 'em ADVICE - Top three all have a plus figure, all drawn well, all good on the ground so I will just work with them. THIRSK 7-30 *WHISPERED TIMES....+9 §*MUJAADEL....+8 *THRUST CONTROL....+5 *TRISKADEKAPHOBIA....+5 §RASSELAS....-8 *SUMMER DANCER....-12 §ICY BLUE....-13 §MONSIEUR PONTHAVEN....-16 §CAMEROONEY....-22 CONJUROR'S BLUFF....-28 JACK BARKER....-31 §THROWING ROSES....-35 STAR CITY....-39 §JUPITER FIDIUS....-40 LOTHAIR....-40 MEDECIS MOUNTAIN....-40 §SHAMROCKED....-40 AUTO MAC....-40 THREE TO DUTCH - WHISPERED TIMES, MUJAADEL, THRUST CONTROL 20/80 - WHISPERED TIMES EXOTICS - WHISPERED TIMES, MUJAADEL, THRUST CONTROL LAY - ICY BLUE PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS - Middle/high very much preferred to low ADVICE - Whose idea was this? An 18 runner selling handicap! I have spotted up a definite draw bias that tells me low have no chance but my top rated surely only has to run to its best form as most of these will be going backwards from the two pole. Complete dog of a race in which all staking should be kept to a minimum, however you approach it. WINDSOR 6-40 JAY BEE BLUE....+11 *WORDISMYBOND....+1 *KILBURN....-6 *ROCK ANTHEM....-16 *SHIFTING STAR....-21 NORPHIN....-26 OUR GOLDEN GIRL....-39 RIOJA DAY....-40 LADY SYLVIA....-40 ROYAL MARSHALL....-40 ADVICE - If one of my top pair doesn't take this it's auf weidesehen to the spondulicks. WINDSOR 7-40 *REGAL SILK....+12 *VERSE OF LOVE....+10 *PRINCE'S TRUST....+9 *LUCKY HENRY....+4 *PURPLE 'N GOLD....-12 *CROQUEMBOUCHE....-14 *LOWTHER....-17 SHEILA'S BUDDY....-19 MAWAAKEF....-27 TOGIAK....-39 ADVICE - Everything points to my top one winning and the only punt going on here is a straight win jobby. WINDSOR 8-10 §*BUSSA....+12 §*SOLE DANSER....+9 *THE WEE CHIEF....+8 §*IDLE CURIOSITY....+1 *JINKER NOBLE....-9 §WELSH INLET....-19 §BLACK CADILLAC....-20 FOSSA....-24 §GENERALYSE....-27 §DIVINE CALL....-31 CAMACHE QUEEN....-34 §LITTLE CHOOSEY....-32 THREE TO DUTCH - BUSSA, SOLE DANSER, IDLE CURIOSITY 20/80 - BUSSA EXOTICS - BUSSA, SOLE DANSER, IDLE CURIOSITY LAY - NONE PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS - Middle/high spot on, low a slight oops. ADVICE - If my top rated manages to break on terms, we have an opportunity to nail a big priced top rated winner. If he blows the start, we don't and I'll be relying on my dutch to get me out. OF INTEREST JOFRANKA (Thirsk 7-00) - straight win ZAMPA MANOS (Windsor 5-40) - 20/80 THE E.W. DOUBLE BURNWYND BOY (Ayr 3-00) SILVER RIME (Ayr 3-30) I have no selections for the Betfair Challenge today....pretty poor racing all round. Have a great day and the very best of luck Kindest regards Ron

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