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Today’s Ratings and Advice 05/08/13

Always expect the unexpected! As everyone will be aware it’s been obvious since very early May that things have been “right” from the point of view of going conditions, with the odd exception, and that the ratings have been spectacularly accurate. Yesterday saw just three rated races to work with and again, a very nice top rated winner in the shape of TELLOVOI, which paid 40.68 to BFSP.

I should add right here and now that if you do not have a Betfair account, you should open one right away and you can do this from our home page….big banner, left hand side. They are offering a free £50 bet to all new customers and that’s decent enough.

The reason I say this is because it will impact on your profits if you do not bet with them. That winner yesterday paid 28/1 to shop SP and so if you didn’t use Betfair, you have effectively lost close to 12 points. The smaller priced top rated will also add the fractions you need to your profits but it’s those bigger priced ones that really do add gravy to the meat.

At the end of July punting the top rated only, all races, to a level stake, had you just over 130pts up and already in August we have added another 34pts+ and those having done as many are doing now sit 165pts up for the season. When you consider all we are dealing with is all aged handicaps, that’s phenomenal and proof, I hope you agree, that the way I approach a handicap works.

We are soon to be introduced to a few hundred thousand new faces, and whilst not all will like or enjoy how I work, a few hopefully will. If we can attract just 10% of those people enough to have them join you, then what will happen for members across the board will be extraordinary. If you think it has been good so far, you aint seen nuthin’ yet!

I thought I had three meetings to work with when I looked at the racecards for today, early yesterday but the meeting at Carlisle is billed as the Ultimate Ladies Night and all races are for lady riders only. They are impossible to rate and I’ll not even begin to try but BANDANAMAN looks to have a decent chance in that 6-45.

Assumptions:

CARLISLE – Flat (Updated:05/08/2013 at 07:01:04)
Going
Good, Good to Soft in places
(GoingStick: Not working on Monday at 07:00)

Stalls
All on the inside, except 1m 4f outside

Rails
All rail moved back to inside. Race distances as advertised

Weather
12mm overnight
Monday – drizzle at present, turning to rain. Rain to continue
through most of the day, easing off mid afternoon, then cloudy
10mm to 14mm, 17C.

Other
CofC Andrew Tulloch 07831 315104

RIPON – Flat (Updated:05/08/2013 at 06:10:45)
Going
Good
(GoingStick: 8.2 on Monday at 06:00)

Stalls
Straight Course & 2 miles – Stand side

Rails
Rail on bend from back straight to home straight moved out 3
meters
adding about 7 yards to races on the round course

Weather
2mm of rain overnight. Rain to continue through the day, possibly
easing during the afternoon to showers. 10-15mm forecast

WINDSOR – Flat (Updated:05/08/2013 at 07:28:33)
Going
Good to Firm, Good in places.(Watered)
Going Stick reading to follow later.

Stalls
1m 2f abt 7yds, 1m 3f abt 135yds:- Centre.

Rails
Inner of straight dolled out 11yds at 6f and 6yds at the Winning
Post.
Top bend dolled out 5yds from normal inner configuration, adding
22yds to race distances of 1m+

Weather
9.6mm rainfall since raceday.
Dry overnight.
Monday:- Cloudy start, with sunny intervals and a mainly dry
morning. Isolated light rain showers developing with the
potential for these showers to become heavy and thundery from
late afternoon/early evening 20c.

Watering
4mm of irrigation was applied to the whole of the racecourse
(Saturday). 3mm of selective irrigation applied to top bend and
pull-up area of the racecourse yesterday (Sunday)

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses perceived as being well drawn

Rains have been falling and will continue to fall. If the going changes by what I consider a full degree i.e. good to firm becoming good to soft, or good turning to soft, consider walking away. My figures may well still produce a winner or two but I myself will err on the side of caution and I will not be betting.

RIPON 3-15

*SAN CASSIANO….+8
*DAME NELLIE MELBA….+2
*PERSIAN PERIL….-7
*BRAVEHEART MOVE….-15
AMAZE….-17
TRIPLE EIGHT….-23
PATENTLY….-25
NEXT EDITION….-40

ADVICE – This will probably be reduced to seven runners as my bottom rated ran yesterday. My second highest rated is a three year old, improving, having had just five runs to date and you know what that means. I think the winner is in my top two, I think it’s that Johnston runner but I myself will just have a small dutch to find out and leave it at that.

RIPON 3-45

*SPINATRIX….+13
§PEARL ICE….+10
§*MISTER MANANNAN….+9
*KLYNCH….+9
*BEDLOE’S ISLAND….+9
*RIGHT TOUCH….+9
§*NAMEITWHATYOULIKE….-3
*MISPLACED FORTUNE….-5
§EMILIO LARGO….-9
*PERFECT BLOSSOM….-10
FITZ FLYER….-10
BACHOTHEQUE….-16

THREE TO DUTCH – SPINATRIX, PEARL ICE, MISTER MANANNAN
20/80 – SPINATRIX
EXOTICS – SPINATRIX, PERAL ICE, MISTER MANANNAN
LAY – EMILIO LARGO
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low marginally favoured over high, middle unlikely winners.

ADVICE – With two of my top three boxed low and one high I’ve boots in both camps I want boots in. It’s all going to come down to the ground and if it went worse than good to soft, I’m off…and so are all bets!

RIPON 5-15

*MAYBEME….+15
*BRIGHT APPLAUSE….+12
*FOSSGATE….+9
*HONOURED….+8
*CHOISAN….-3
BADEA….-14
BAVARIAN NORDIC….-23
TINSELTOWN….-24
GOSFORTH PARK….-27
AY TAY TATE….-40

ADVICE – Top three for all bets….simples.

WINDSOR 6-00

MACDILLON….+10
§*BEST BE CAREFUL….+9
ADA LOVELACE….-8
THE WEE CHIEF….-9
§WELEASE BWIAN….-13
*DREAMS OF GLORY….-15
§DANGEROUS AGE….-17
JARROW….-26
ROYAL AWARD….-29
PHAROAH JAKE….-29
§LADWEB….-37

THREE TO DUTCH – BEST BE CAREFUL, WELEASE BWIAN, DREAMS OF GLORY
20/80 – BEST BE CAREFUL
EXOTICS – BEST BE CAREFUL, WELEASE BWIAN, DREAMS OF GLORY
LAY – DANGEROUS AGE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High favoured, just, over low.

ADVICE – This one has taken me longest to arrive to a conclusion at. It’s got a top rated that has not won for two years but that is a beaten favourite last twice. Ground (currently), not right and drawn “second best”. I’ll just work with the three having got § or * and in my top six but it’ll be low staking all round.

WINDSOR 7-00

§*BUSSA….+12
*SCHOOL FEES….-2
§O’GORMAN….-9
§*BAJAN BEAR….-11
*ASHPAN SAM….-13
ARCTIC LYNX….-16
R WOODY….-15
PANTHER PATROL….-24
KINGLAMI….-25
§OCEAN LEGEND….-30

THREE TO DUTCH – BUSSA, O’GORMAN, BAJAN BEAR
20/80 – BUSSA
EXOTICS – BUSSA, O’GORMAN, BAJAN BEAR
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low strongly favoured

ADVICE – I have three in my top six drawn right where I want them and they are the ones i’ll tinker with.

WINDSOR 7-30

*KOHLAAN….+11
*JUVENAL….+10
*BAY KNIGHT….+9
*CRUISER….+8
*AFRICAN OIL….+/-0
*CHORAL FESTIVAL….-3
UNCLE DERMOT….-15
*JACK WHO’S HE….-18

ADVICE – Good little race this. I am happy to work with KOHLAAN and JUVENAL….dutch, 20/80 KOHLAAN and exotics. If i am well up n the day I will lob BAY KNIGHT in for a tricast.

OF INTEREST

JOFRANKA (Ripon 4-15) – straight win
BOHEMIAN DANCE (Windsor 8-00) – straight win

This is probably going to drive one or two of you mad but because of the ground situation…in as much as we have no clue what it will be riding like come off time at either meeting, I am again going to suggest we sit on the Betfair Challenge. I do not “guess” where my own money is concerned and I’m certainly not going to suggest you do something I myself wouldn’t do.

It’ll happen, just a case of when.

Have a great day and the very best of luck whatever you decide to do

Kindest regards

Ron

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