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Today’s Ratings and Advice 31/07/13

An absolutely perfect example of how a going change causes us problems. Harris Tweed is a Group class racehorse when he can get his toe in, no doubts about that. When I prepared my figures yesterday he rated lowly. The rains fell, the going changed and in he whizzed, by six lengths, pulling a caravan. On good/good to firm, he’s a handicapper.

Effectively, chuck my work into the bin if the going changes as it did yesterday.

We seem to be stalling in the Betfair Challenge right now. I really did pick the wrong week to kick this off, didn’t I! Nothing we can do to control the elements though and what I propose is that we sit on our hands and let a spell of settled weather dry before getting involved. I’ll be sure to let you know when that will be….quite probably the weekend.

I still received e-mails….plenty of them….from people still obviously unsure about what to do in the event of non-runners. I did state that in the event we have two or more non-runners in races selected for this challenge, that have a perceived draw bias, we pull out. Yesterday we had four It’s as much about the place price collapsing as anything else. I had at least 12 e-mails from those looking to get involved in this telling me we now had four non-runners, asking if they should still play that horse.

Assumptions:

GOODWOOD – Flat (Updated:31/07/2013 at 07:37:38)
Going
Good to Soft
(GoingStick: To be updated on Wednesday at 10:00)

Stalls
Straight Course Stand Side. Round Course Inside.2m.5f Flip

Rails
Top bend dolled out 3yards.
Lower bend dolled out 5 yards.
Straight dolled out 5 yards
Increasing race distances by about 10 yards

Weather
Dry overnight.Mainly dry

LEICESTER – Flat (Updated:31/07/2013 at 07:06:32)
Going
Good to Soft,Soft in places
(GoingStick: 7.0 on Wednesday at 06:30)

Stalls
Straight – Centre Round – Inside

Weather
Dry overnight.94 mm rain in the last
week.Forecast:Wednesday-Light rain during the morning,possibly
turning heavy during the afternoon max temp 20c.

REDCAR – Flat (Updated:31/07/2013 at 06:50:26)
Going
Good, Good to Firm in places
(GoingStick: 8.2 on Monday at 07:45)

Stalls
Straight course – Centre

Weather
Dry overnight. Tuesday very bright and breezy
1.5mm rain Monday
37mm rainfall Saturday night.
Forecast: Wednesday – Dry morning but becoming more cloudy
and rain moving in late afternoon/evening.

SANDOWN PARK – Flat (Updated:30/07/2013 at 12:16:12)
Going
Good, Good to Soft in places
(GoingStick: 7.5 on Tuesday at 11:00)

Stalls
All races – Inside

Rails
Railed out up to 6 yards from 7f to Winning Post – adding 21
yards (20m) to race distances.

Weather
10mm rain Sunday night, after 8mm rain Saturday night. Dry
Monday. 4mm rain as at midday Tuesday morning – gradually easing.
Wednesday drier and more settled following possible damp start.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses perceived as being best drawn

GOODWOOD 1-55

*LIEUTENANT MILLER….-15
GOOD MORNING STAR….-22
*FIRST AVENUE….-24
*GASSIN GOLF….-25
*ERMYN LODGE….-28
ITALIAN RIVIERA….-30
BROXBOURNE….-33
SOHAR….-35
*HIGH OFFICE….-37
BROCKWELL….-40
MEXICALI….-40
*SULA TWO….-40
COURTESY CALL….-40
BEYOND….-40
BEYOND CONCEIT….-40
HEROSTATUS….-40
THE BETCHWORTH KID….-40
SEASIDE SIZZLER….-40
CLOUDY SPIRIT….-40
KAZBOW….-40

ADVICE – I hate such races. Not a play for me here.

GOODWOOD 5-25

§JOHANNES….+10
GOOD AUTHORITY….+9
*MY KINGDOM….+8
MAGIC CITY….+8
*JOHNNY CASTLE….+8
*UNKNOWN VILLAIN….+8
*ESPIRIT DE MIDAS….+7
§*DISCRESSION….-1
*TIDENTIME….-3
*BRAVO ECHO….-3
§*BRONZE PRINCE….-6
§*ASKAUD….-10
§ANCIENT GREECE….-17
*ACCESSION….-18
§SPIRIT OF SHARJAH….-18
NOBLE CITIZEN….-20
§NENGE MBOKO….-21
NOVELLEN LAD….-24
ALEJANDRO….-27
MR DAVID….-32

THREE TO DUTCH – MY KINGDOM, JOHNNY CASTLE, UNKNOWN VILLAIN
20/80 – MY KINGDOM
EXOTICS – MY KINGDOM, JOHNNY CASTLE, UNKNOWN VILLAIN
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Middle look best placed but nothing drawn there look either good enough to utilise it or, has a going issue.

ADVICE – DISCRESSION is the highest rated horse to have everything right. If one of my top six were to come out, he moves up by natural progression and would be in my dutch and, my 20/80. Right now though, I will work with three in my top six having won previously on the going we have right now.

REDCAR 3-50

*JONNY LESTERS HAIR….-6
MOROCCO….-6
*ROCK SUPREME….-11
GOLD SHOW….-13
BUSTER BROWN….-17
DISCAY….-18
DAY OF DESTINY….-21
SPES NOSTRA….-22
VICKY VALENTINE….-40
NAKURU BREEZE….-40

REDCAR 5-00

BLACK DOUGLAS….+4
PERFECT WORDS….+4
*QUEENS REVENGE….-1
*LADY KILDARE….-3
§SCENTPASTPARADISE….-3
§*SIR NOD….-5
*CHOC’A’MOCA….-7
§*LEES ANTHEM….-8
§LEGAL BOND….-14
LUCY MINAJ….-23
LOGANS LEGEND….-31
KARATE QUEEN….-35

ADVICE – I have a draw bias here but this is a shocker! The only horse in this event that has draw and ground right is the 11 year old SIR NOD. He’s in my top six but if you think I’m going to advocate punting a horse that has not won on turf since April 2010, have another one! A no bet race for me.

REDCAR 5-35

*EMILY HALL….+17
A J COOK….+10
*LAYLA’S LEGEND….+3
§*RYEDANE….+3
§CONSTANT DREAM….-1
*BAYBESHAMBLES….-14
§LITTLE JIMMY ODSOX….-15
*AMADEUS DENTON….-16
STOREY HILL….-25
§COPPER TO GOLD….-34
HELTERSKELTER GIRL….-38
TONGALOOMA….-40

ADVICE – Another race I’ll not be punting myself. Redcar really do seem to have gotten themselves the scrapings off the bottom of that barrel today.

SANDOWN 8-00

FAMILIARITY….+13
RUNNING DEER….+9
*JEWELLED….+/-0
EVERLEIGH….-4
WILLOW BECK….-8
CAPELLA’S SONG….-10
*EASTER DIVA….-11
PEARL SECRET….-14
MESMERISED….-25
TRAVELLING….-27
DOWNHILL DANCER….-29
SIMPLY ELEGANT….-35
PRINCESS ICICLE….-38
LYRICA….-38
TILSTAR….-40

ADVICE – Impossible to rate accurately due to the number of unexposed three year olds sitting amongst them….and that includes my top rated. Another race I myself will simply watch only.

LEICESTER 7-05

THOMAS HOBSON….+10
*SNOW HILL….-7
*MISTER CARTER….-6
CHANGE THE SUBJECT….-17
PERFECT DELIGHT….-18
IVANHOE….-40
ASTROSAPPHIRE….-40
BREAK RANK….-40
AUTHORSHIP….-40

ADVICE – Another race spogged by three year olds. I cannot get anything like a handle on AUTHORSHIP and for that reason again, I abstain.

LEICESTER 8-10

*THE STRIG….+8
*WE HAVE A DREAM….+7
§*FATHSTA….+6
§*CAPTAIN SCOOBY….+2
*CLUBLAND….-1
*FICELLE….-1
*BARONS SPY….-3
§*KEY AMBITION….-5
§AMBITIOUS BOY….-14
§BEACHWOOD BAY….-18
GEORGE FENTON….-20
NIGHT TRADE….-30
FENELLA FUDGE….-31
BAJAN BEAR….-35

THREE TO DUTCH – THE STRIG, FATHSTA, CAPTAIN SCOOBY
20/80 – FATHSTA
EXOTICS – THE STRIG, FATHSTA, CAPTAIN SCOOBY
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low just preferred to high, middle a tad hampered.

ADVICE – A sorry end to the days punting but I myself will play as indicated. This kind of hoss wins in its turn and hopefully my figures have found out who fancies it but I will not be lumping on to find out….small staking race, indeed!

OF INTEREST

FASHION FUND (Goodwood 4-15) – 20/80
TORNESEL (Sandown 6-55) – 20/80
NELLIE FORBUSH (Sandown 8-35) – 20/80
LADY STELLA (Leicester 6-00) – 20/80

Whilst I wait for things to settle down a bit we’ll leave it at that. A few days sunshine are forecast and by Saturday I expect to be diving in again.

Have a great day and the best of luck if you get involved

Kindest regards

Ron

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