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Today’s Ratings and Advice 29/07/13

I cannot start with anything other than a huge pat on the back of Michel-Jean Caule de Marolan. Simply outstanding tipping again as his number one selection for the Canadian Open, Brandt Snedeker, held his nerve on the back nine to record a three shot victory over four tied for second spot, one of which was his number three pick, Matt Kuchar. Who knows what would have happened had his number two selection, Hunter Mahan, had not withdrawn at the end of day two because his wife went into labour, a two shot lead in the bag and looking very good.

In the last three weeks Post Racing members and that includes those reading the free daily Newsletter, have had access to information and advice that has enabled them to bet on winners at 33/1, 16/1 and now 12/1. Michel-Jean is a man that most definitely knows his golf!

When he first suggested he came on board I said to him, “rather you than me!”. I find trusting my hard earned to equine flesh much easier to that of the human variety….we are the most unpredictable animal! I thought finding two successive winning golf bets was outstanding but to make it three on the bounce is surreal. It’s a bit like me finding you three successive big field handicap winners on three consecutive Saturdays and I know how seriously difficult that is.

Post Racing members have had a cracking good weekend of punting, the podcast throwing out several winners, the Ratings doing well, and now this golf profit. Just wait until the football season starts!

It was also brilliant to see our new trainer Paul Green saddle yet another winner. He is on a roll right now and for sure, Rosie is in good hands. De Repente was an easy winner at Carlisle yesterday, on her Nursery debut and, being by Captain Rio the rain softened ground was always going to be right up her street. Looks like connections felt that too….4/1 > 5/2.

During my last visit to Oaklea Paul said to me that he had a good feeling about our working together. Me too. We will be much more involved next season and for sure another horse running in our colours out of Lydiate. I will be having a chat with Paul and Mandie about our having a bit of a day over there and hopefully plenty of you can make the trip.

TODAY

I had to pick today for the start of the £1000 Betfair Challenge, didn’t I! It has rained like it was nobodies business and so much so that Ayr felt the need to hold an inspection this morning (subsequently cancelled, they race), but it’s going to be a minimum of very soft up there, heavy in places, with more rain forecast. I have prepared figures for that course but you know I’m not going to be betting there, until I’ve seen just how bad….or not….it is.

I am going to advise one to lay and one to play at the bottom of this Newsletter and offer up a little advice on how you should approach this bit of fun. I was e-mailing a member yesterday regarding the laying side as he had queried how everyone would get on if we saw 000’s trying to lay the same horse to £500 and for sure, it’ll be interesting. My guess is that as soon as most are up to £160, they will blink and nothing in wrong in taking a profit. it’ll be a bit like one of those game shows where you have money in the bank and it’s twist or bust. Who wants to be a millionaire?

Assumptions:

AYR – Flat (Updated:29/07/2013 at 06:22:01)
Going
Soft, Heavy in places
(GoingStick: 8.4 on Monday at 06:15)

Stalls
5f & 6f: Far Side

Rails
Home turn bend out 4m adding approx. 12yds to race
distances 7f and further.

Weather
5mm of rain up to 1pm yesterday then dry.
Monday – Showers throughout the day (< 8mm). Recent rainfall: Tuesday - 11mm; Wednesday - 5mm; Thursday - 15mm; Saturday - 12mm;Sunday - 5mm Inspections RACING GOES AHEAD WINDSOR - Flat (Updated:28/07/2013 at 09:23:26) Going Good to Firm, Good in places (GoingStick: 8.5 on Sunday at 09:00) Stalls 1m 2f abt 7yds, 1m 3f abt 135yds:- Centre. Rails Inner of straight dolled out 11yds at 6f and 6yds at the Winning Post. Top bend dolled out 5yds from normal inner configuration, adding 22yds to race distances of 1m+ Weather 5.2mm rainfall overnight, making a total figure of 20.6mm of rainfall since our last race meeting. Sunday- Mainly dry with sunny intervals 23c. Monday- Sunny intervals and showery 21c max. * indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described § indicates horses perceived as being best drawn AYR 2-30 *GOWANHARRY....+10 ALEXANDRAKOLLONTAI....+/-0 *CRIMSON KNOT....-7 *BLACK ANNIS BOWER....-15 DISTANT SUN....-16 BREEZOLINI....-19 COMPTON HEIGHTS....-21 FINDOG....-30 JINKY....-40 ADVICE - We have three in here having winning form on soft and one of them clear on my figures. With no draw bias to spog my thinking it seems a sensible option to work with them but I'll not make a decision how I'll do that until after that 2-00 has been run. AYR 3-00 *ACTIVATE....+9 A SOUTHSIDE BOY....-1 EMBSAY CRAG....-7 SCHMOOZE....-11 BEAT THE TIDE....-15 HIGH ON A HILL....-17 MY DESTINATION....-23 ROC FORT....-35 ADVICE - Only my top rated currently has winning form on soft ground but that one sitting second best won easily on heavy in the past. they front the tissue and the winner probably comes from of them. I am wondering why Keith Dalgleish has chosen to remove the headgear from ACTIVATE, something he has worn on every run this year to date? AYR 3-30 *GONINODAETHAT....+8 JOSHUA THE FIRST....-5 MONEL....-13 JESSIE'S SPIRIT....-22 LAST SUPPER....-29 ICY BLUE....-39 RALPHY BOY....-39 SEAMSTER....-40 BERBICE....-40 PTOLEMY....-40 ALLURING STAR....-40 ADVICE - Again only my top rated has winning form on soft, he's in form, twice a CD winner and you know the old saying, "if it looks to good to be true, it probably is....?".... AYR 4-00 TECTONIC....-12 *FLIPPING....-15 EUSTON SQUARE....-25 MUSICAL EXPRESS....-26 SNAP MUSIC....-27 LOOK ON BY....-31 CAPTAIN BALDWIN....-32 SAVE THE BEES....-35 HAYLEY....-39 DISTRICT ATTORNEY....-40 EILEAN MOR....-40 ADVICE - With Mark Johnston saddling a three year old having had just two runs (SNAP MUSIC), the second of those runs a victory and with the beast trading a short priced favourite, this is a race I will simply watch from the sidelines. If you believe you know how this good to firm winner will handle conditions, please be kind enough to let me in on it! AYR 4-30 BALDUCCI....-6 SUITS ME....-8 *LE CHAT D'OR....-10 SOUND ADVICE....-12 *STEER BY THE STARS....-22 DUBAI DYNAMO....-23 INVINCIBLE HERO....-25 FORT BELVEDERE....-31 ADVICE - Right now I'm of a mind it'll be just a 20/80 LE CHAT D'OR....but that's only of a mind. WINDSOR 7-30 §*MARIA LOMBARDI....+11 §*GINZAN....+3 §*ROYAL TRIX....+/-0 JOCASTA DAWN....-4 ROYAL GUINEVERE....-6 *MARIA MONTEZ....-9 §*NIGHT TRADE....-11 §BROUGHTONS CHARM....-12 LUCILLA....-18 GIFT OF MUSIC....-19 DIAMOND BELLE....-23 THREE TO DUTCH - MARIA LOMBARDI, GINZAN, ROYAL TRIX 20/80 - MARIA LOMBARDI EXOTICS - MARIA LOMBARDI, GINZAN, ROYAL TRIX LAY - NONE PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS - Not much in it but I'm just favouring high. ADVICE - I'm happy with my figures, my top three the only horses with a +§*....they get the call to arms! WINDSOR 8-00 *SIGNIFICANT MOVE....+16 *BREAKING THE BANK....+8 HECTOR'S CHANCE....-7 UNCLE DERMOT....-8 BOBBYSCOT....-9 ZE KING....-10 AJEEB....-11 POETIC LORD....-15 ADVICE - Top pair look to have this between them but it'll just be a straight win bet my top rated for me. WINDSOR 8-30 *ALDWICK BAY....+9 *GOLD MINE....+8 POYLE THOMAS....-9 *ICE NELLY....-15 KITTENS....-15 SWIFT BLADE....-16 *HIGHLIFE DANCER....-19 SHIRAKTI....-20 STAR DATE....-27 ADVICE - At this moment in time it'll be a top three play, all bets but for sure, it's not a race filling with me with punting confidence and staking will reflect that OF INTEREST MEETING WATERS (Windsor 6-00) - 20/80 THE BETFAIR £1000 CHALLENGE As you know the idea here is to place £10 into your Betfair account and lay, or play, the advices below. What you have to understand though is, whilst we hope to win, the possibility of losing, every day, exists. Can you sit comfortably with that? If by Saturday you are £60 down, is the cat in danger, has that ensured it's beans on toast every day the week after? If so, adjust you staking to a %age of that staking plan that you are comfortable with. I would much rather you were only down £12 come Saturday although, of course, I would like us all to be looking at that £1000 just a step or two away. I will be advising one to play, one to lay. You decide which route to follow. If, however, I genuinely feel it's not a day for laying, I will say so. This might be for a bit of fun but it's serious fun and nothing will be advised for the sheer heck of it. Bide your time, build your profit and most of all enjoy it. ONE TO LAY I would not advocate punting or laying at Ayr until we know for sure what they race on and, the favourites for my three rated races sit inside my top six rated. I will not be advising we lay anything bigger than 4 so today, we abstain. ONE TO PLAY Here I will be looking for just one horse to place only. The play will be taken from a rated race and represent a solid opportunity to extract a profit from the place only market. The advice will be made on the understanding that the ground and field size remain "as is" when the advice is given. For instance, should the advice be running in a race of eight runners and should one come out, you walk away. If I have indicated a draw bias in that rated race and should two or more come out, walk away. This applies also to the laying advice. I arrive at a conclusion based on all factors mentioned and any one or all will have an impact on my own decision making come post time. MARIA LOMBARDI is the first of these plays. Stable in flying form now as opposed to when she was a beaten favourite in a four runner race on handicap debut. Ryan Moore booked to ride and she will carry my own £10. THE E.W. DOUBLE Two horse in rated or non rated races I hope will give you a small profit in the event they simply place. This is very much a fun bet and if you draw enough from it to pay for lunch, that'll do. MARIA LOMBARDI (Windsor 7-30) SIGNIFICANT MOVE (Windsor 8-00) The same "rules" apply to this bet as those applied to the "serious" stuff! I look forward to cracking on with this tomorrow...best of luck if you get involved. Kindest regards Ron

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