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Today’s Ratings and Advice 28/07/13

Well, it may have been our first podcast but the information and advice contained within it was seriously good. The first thing we discussed on Thursday, when we spent around 90 minutes ad libbing, was the King George. Long story short, I advised you played Novellist and sean advised Trading Leather. You will have secured the 13/2 winner, 35/1 CSF and the 34/1 exacta, if you opted to work like that.

I mentioned that Tropics would easily reverse form with Khubala and at that point was a horse I wanted to be with in that Dash at York. They finished 1st and 3rd. My figures on the day set me back on my heels but the initial reading of the race was spot on. I have to confess we were both very pleased with ourselves at the end of the afternoon.

I have three meetings to work with today, which is unusual….I can never understand race planners….but I know here we have seen torrential rain over the last 8-10 hours and it’s been heading north. What it will be doing to underfoot conditions is anyones guess and so until I know for sure what they race on, I’ll keep my mumblings attached to each race, to a minimum.

YESTERDAY

I’ll start, as is usual, with a look back at yesterday and those that simply choose to punt my top rated horse in every race, needed a lie down (for good reasons!), at the end of racing.

ASCOT 3-15
*SACROSANCTUS….+11
*DON’T CALL ME….+10
§*PRINCE OF JOHANNE….+9
§*GALICIAN….+8 – WON 33/1
*REDVERS….+8
*LIGHTNING CLOUD….+4
*FIELD OF DREAM….+3
§*EXCELLENT GUEST….+1
§*QUEENSBERRY RULES….-3
*PALACE MOON….-3
*ES QUE LOVE….-6
*HAWKEYETHENOO….-6
*TRAIL BLAZE….-7
§COMPTON….-11
*COMMON TOUCH….-11
*HEAD OF STEAM….-12
*BERTIEWHITTLE….-15
*BOOTS AND SPURS….-15
*JUSTONEFORTHEROAD….-16
§HEFNER….-19
*THE CONFESSOR….-20
LOVING SPIRIT….-20
§ASHAADD….-27
DUBAWI SOUND….-31
§GLEN MOSS….35
§SANTEFISIO….-35
SHAMAAL NIBRAS….-35
DUCAL….-40
§REBELLIOUS GUEST….-40

ADVICE – In the podcast I mentioned the fact QUEENSBERRY RULES was winking at me. He will be well served by this drop back in trip, ground is right, he’s where I want him drawn but, he’s a three year old with just four runs on the board and impossible for me to rate accurately. Of my top six the one I would want to be working with is PRINCE OF JOHANNE who did us a wonderful turn three weeks ago. The have booked Mr Ascot, Johnny Murtagh, to ride and he too has ticks in those boxes marked going/draw. GALICIAN too has everything right but for one thing. After he won last time connections disclosed they had now found the key to him…small fields. His last two wins have come in fields of 6 and 4 runners and, his last four wins in fields of 6, 4, 8 and 9….he won a 12 runner event in 2011 but everything does indicate, he does not like running with the herd….so why is he here?
I do think QUEENSBERRY RULES will improve right past my figure and because of that the only play I will set up here is a 20/80 PRINCE OF JOHANNE.

RESULT – The thought of the rains coming messed with my mind yesterday, I confess. Normally it would have been a very straightforward selection process….I had two in my top six drawn right where I wanted them, and dutching them plus one other was the way to go. I know many of you did, Paul getting 48/1 on Betfair about the winner. Me? I just sat here looking stupid….again.

NEWCASTLE 3-05

*FROG HOLLOW….+5 – NR
*ORTAC ROCK….+2
*DUBAI DYNAMO….+2
*PACIFIC HEIGHTS….+1 – WON 5/2
*VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR….-4
*ABLE MASTER….-9
*YAIR HILL….-11
*GATEPOST….-12
FIELDGUNNER KIRKUP….-17
LAFFAN….-24

ADVICE – My top rated won last night and I doubt very much he’ll take this in. That being the case, I’ll will simply dutch the three below him on my figures, go 20/80 ORTAC ROCK and tinker with the exotics.

RESULT – Dutch landed but no cheering going on as it was favourite and the bet returned shillings.

NEWCASTLE 3-40

*KEEP IT COOL….+/-0
*MR CRYSTAL….-8
*BRASINGAMAN ERIC….-9
*PETELLA….-11
*MASON HINDMARSH….-16
*HAWK MOUNTAIN….-22
HARRISON’S CAVE….-32
MOHEEBB….-33
MAJOR DOMO….-35
MINISTEROFINTERIOR….-40

RESULT – Hate this kind of race. Don’t know why I bother working on them to be honest with you.

NEWCASTLE 4-15

*ACT YOUR SHOE SIZE….-13
MAMA QUILLA….-20 – NR
VILLA ROYALE….-24 – NR
MAYBEAGREY….-32
BYGONES FOR COINS….-33
LIVIA’S DREAM….-35

RESULT – This race fell apart and saw nothing of my money.

NEWCASTLE 4-50

§CAPTAIN ROYALE….+9 – WON 12/1
§*HERE NOW AND WHY….+8
*BALTIC BOMBER….+2
§*ROY’S LEGACY….-6
*RIO’S GIRL….-6
*ARCH WALKER….-7
§*INGENTI….-9
*PISTE….-15
§MR KHAN….-18
§ROBYN….-22
§BUSY BIMBO….-26

THREE TO DUTCH – CAPTAIN ROYALE, HERE NOW AND WHY, ROY’S LEGACY
20/80 – HERE NOW AND WHY
EXOTICS – CAPTAIN ROYALE, HERE NOW AND WHY, ROY’S LEGACY
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – The only place I do not want to be drawn is middle.

ADVICE – Three in my top four perceived as being well drawn, two having the ground right and they are the one’s I will be playing.

RESULT – Lovely 12/1 top rated winner. That’ll always suffice.

NEWCASTLE 5-25

§*GRAN CANARIA QUEEN….+8
§*PAVERS STAR….-1
§*NICEONEMYSON….-9
§MYSTERIOUS WONDER….-19
*WICKED WILMA….-21
§BIG STORM COMING….-25
TUIBAMA….-29
§PRINCESS CAYAN….-36
§IMPERIAL BOND….-34
SEE VERMONT….-40

ADVICE – My top three rated have going and draw spot on and, they front the morning tissue. This is not a race we will get rich of playing to my normal punting methods so, it’s just a straight win bet my top one for me.

RESULT – The top rated horse missed the kick and was always struggling to make that ground up. One we just accept as “racing”.

NEWMARKET 2-45

*BANK ON ME….+8
*GREEK WAR….+4 – 2ND 20/1
*AL SAHAM….+2
*ROCKALONG….-4
ENZAAL….-13
*ONE PEKAN….-16
MAGISTRAL….-17
CLAYTON….-26

RESULT – A neck away from landing my dutch and, I’m thinking he would have won with a clear run….again though, that’s racing!

NEWMARKET 3-20

MALEKAT JAMAL….+5 – WON 20/1
*TARTIFLETTE….-8
*TANTSHI….-8
MAR MAR….-8
POISSON D’OR….-10
*CALIFANTE….-18
PLOVER….-22
GHASABAH….-30

RESULT – A very, very nice 20/1 top rated winner.

YORK 1-50

*MAVEN….-20
*CHRISTMAS LIGHT….-24
*NEMUSHKA….-27
*VELVETY….-33
TUSCANIA….-35
MYSTERY BET….-35
OUR OBSESSION….-36
NORTHERN STAR….-40

YORK 2-20

§*NAVAJO CHIEF….+10 – NR
*SMARTY SOCKS….+9 – 2ND 5/2
*SHAMDARLEY….+7 – NR
§*VERSE OF LOVE….-6
§SIRIUS PROSPECT….-10 – WON 11/2
§*WEBBOW….-15
§LES TROYENS….-16
§NAMEITWHATYOULIKE….-20
*DARK CASTLE….-23
*AL KHAN….-25
§MEHDI….-33
§GARDE COTIERE….-36

THREE TO DUTCH – NAVAJO CHIEF, VERSE OF LOVE, WEBBOW
20/80 – NAVAJO CHIEF
EXOTICS – NAVAJO CHIEF, VERSE OF LOVE, WEBBOW
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Those drawn 1, 2, 3 and 4 not on my mind.

ADVICE – If I have made the correct decisions here then it’s fillet steak tonight! My top rated would, ideally, like another couple of furlongs to aim at but he does love this place, it’s close to six years since Webbow won a race and Verse Of Love would love to be belting around Chester as opposed to here but, with the front two on the morning tissue (2nd & 3rd highest rated horses), not drawn nice at all, I’ll throw the dice and see what happens.

RESULT – With two out that very much negated a draw bias. Winner and runner up in my “top three” so I guess that’s a plus….of kinds.

YORK 3-30

§*REGAL PARADE….+10
§*SECRET WITNESS….+9
*PRODIGALITY….+8 – 4TH 20/1
*SUMMERINTHECITY….+8 – 2ND 40/1
§*LINE OF REASON….+7
*FAST SHOT….+6
§*RODRIGO DE TORRES….+4
§*KHUBALA….+1
*BOGART….-1
BACCARAT….-6
§*FARLOW….-7
§*RASAMAN….-10
DICK BOS….-13
*FITZ FLYER….-15
TROPICS….-20
*AL’S MEMORY….-20
§GRAMERCY….-28
MISSISSIPPI….-35
AHERN….-37
TAROOQ….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – REGAL PARADE, SECRET WITNESS, LINE OF REASON
20/80 – REGAL PARADE
EXOTICS – REGAL PARADE, SECRET WITNESS, LINE OF REASON
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High draw looks a “must have”….anything drawn lower than 14 not on my mind for win purposes….doesn’t mean it wont happen, just me seeing a very definite bias towards high.

ADVICE – The two mentioned in the podcast were Tropics and Khubala. I stated quite categorically that I felt Tropics would reverse Windsor form with Khubala but, now we are here and I have the facts in front of me, Tropics has one heck of a job on to win this. Draw not the best (not the worst, either) and the ground a concern, He needs the rains to fall as he’s 2-2 on genuine good ground and likewise Khubala….a winner on good to firm but we have him winning twice and placing twice from five runs on soft.
Of the pair I now believe Khubala to be best placed to uphold that Windsor form but irrespective, I’m playing as indicated above.

RESULT – I guess when you are the best horse in a race by some way, you win irrespective of what conditions are in place. I knew on Wednesday that Tropics was the horse to be with here but, swings and roundabouts, eh.

YORK 4-40

*DAZINSKI….-10
*FLASHMAN….-11 – WON 7/2
*ART HISTORY….-13
*COME HERE YEW….-16
*MOIDORE….-22
CRACKENTORP….-22
*DR IRV….-25
*ROCKTHERUNWAY….-28
ALL THE ACES….-31
TEAK….-33
GABRIAL’S STAR….-38
MISTER PAGAN….-40
ALEKSANDAR….-40

RESULT – Winner in my top three but it still doesn’t stop me disliking this type of flat race.

LINGFIELD 7-00

*GYPSY RIDER….+11
TRIPLE AITCH….+11
BYRD IN HAND…+8
WISHFORMORE….-6
FIRST CLASS….-6
HAWK MOTH….-14
ZAHEEB….-26
SARAH BERRY….-30
ENRICHING….-32
MARGUERITE ST JUST….-34

RESULT – I’ll tell you now, I never even watched this one, let alone punt it.

I was receiving some seriously nice e-mails as those winners went in and thank you to those that took the time do do that.

TODAY

Assumptions:

ASCOT – Flat (Updated:28/07/2013 at 07:23:51)
Going
Good
(GoingStick: Standside 8.6, Centre 8.4, Farside 8.4, Round 8.0
on Saturday at 08:45)

Stalls
Straight Course: Centre

Weather
7mm rain following racing yesterday. Due to be mainly dry
today with sunny spells.

Other
Updated Goingstick readings to follow

CARLISLE – Flat (Updated:28/07/2013 at 07:06:37)
Going
Soft
(GoingStick: 7.3 on Saturday at 06:30)

Stalls
All races Inside, except 1m4f Outside

Rails
Rail moved from inner most position increasing race distances by
7f and 1m: 9 yards
1m 1f and 1m 4f: 11 yards

Weather
53mm of rain between Tuesday and Thursday.
32mm of rain since 6pm Saturday.
Rain forecast through the day.

PONTEFRACT – Flat (Updated:28/07/2013 at 06:12:35)
Going
Good

Stalls
Inside all races

Rails
We are removing the false rail and, as a result, there is a
strip of 15 feet of fresh ground over the last 6 furlongs.

Weather
25 mm overnight Saturday in to Sunday. Rain just clearing away.
Forecast to be bright and sunny with a small risk of
thunderstorms during the afternoon.

Watering
We watered last Saturday and again lightly on Thursday and
Friday.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses perceived as being best drawn

ASCOT 3-05

*BARBICAN….+3
*VIKING STORM….-3
*RAWAKI….-5
VOODOO PRINCE….-11
SCATTER DICE….-13
*SAYTARA….-17
*NAVE….-19
BISHOP ROKO….-23
*ITLAAQ….-26
GENZY….-30
BUCKLAND….-33

ADVICE – I have no idea how good BISHOP ROKO is or isn’t and because we have that one very much a fly in our ointment, I’ll just work with my top three to October Rules levels of staking.

ASCOT 4-15

*LOVE MARMALADE….+9
*HAYLAMAN….-1
*TAKE TWO….-1
*HYDRANT….-4
CASHPOINT….-15
JOHNNO….-22
CHARLES CAMOIN….-24
FORGOTTEN HERO….-40

ADVICE – LOVE MARMALADE stands out here and he’s my straight win play. That will be my only punt in this one.

ASCOT 5-20

*TAAJUB….+8
§*DUTCH MASTERPIECE….+4
*JOE PACKET….+1
§STORM MOON….-1
§*BURNING THREAD….-2
*JUDGE ‘N JURY….-3
*FACE THE PROBLEM….-3
*BLANC DE CHINE….-8
*STEPS….-9
§*LUPO D’ORO….-10
*ZERO MONEY….-12
§*ANOTHER WISE KID….-15
REBECCA ROMERO….-19
*EVENS AND ODDS….-20
SANDFRANKSKIPSGO….-28
BARNET FAIR….-31
CHEVIOT….-36
§SWAN SONG….-39
§JAMAICAN BOLT….-40
§FOREST EDGE….-40
AHTOUG….-40
LONG AWAITED….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – TAAJUB, DUTCH MASTERPIECE, JOE PACKET
20/80 – DUTCH MASTERPIECE
EXOTICS – TAAJUB, DUTCH MASTERPIECE, JOE PACKET
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Limited empirical data but very slightly favouring middle….probably higher end of middle but it’s taking being pedantic to the optimum levels!

ADVICE – To say DUTCH MASTERPIECE is drawn “exactly” where I want him would be over egging it slightly but “middle” has to start somewhere and it’s him that creeps into that slot. I’m thinking low are quite possibly worst drawn but then, that would include TAAJUB, who is drawn alongside my 20/80. JOE PACKET is drawn just on slot higher on my scale of pedanticism…if there is such a word….and if one horse has “everything”…everything bar a top six rating….it’s LUPO D’ORO.
This is a minefield and this is the best map I can produce for getting us across and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if I stand on one. I’ll play as indicated and hopefully Ryan Moore makes me look good!

PONTEFRACT 2-55

BADEA…. -14
FLEETING FASHION….-20
DARAKTI….-20
EXNING HALT….-23
GOSFORTH PARK….-28
WYLDFIRE….-30
BLUE TOP….-30
BAVARIAN NORDIC….-35
PRINCEOFTHEDESERT….-38
GRAMMAR….-40
NIKNAD….-40
MADRASA….-40

ADVICE – Not a single one of these has won on genuine good ground and punting it therefore requires an element of guesswork. I do not play to guesswork and so I’ll swerve it.

PONTEFRACT 3-30

*CARTHIGINIAN…+8
MUHARRER….+/-0
*TUSCAN FUN….-2
*BARREN BROOK….-2
*FLYING APPLAUSE….-3
*ARC LIGHT…-3
*CARRAGOLD….-13
HANDSOME RANSOM….-19
*JORDAURA….-26
JACOBS SON….-30
GRAN MAESTRO….-36
OBBOORR….-40

ADVICE – My figures more or less mirror the tissue and so not a lot to be gained investing in all plays I generally consider but, I’ll take what comes and go top three dutch, 20/80 CARTHIGINIAN and stump up for those exotics.

PONTEFRACT 4-40

§*CAPO ROSSO….+12
§*ORBIT THE MOON….+9
§*COLONEL MAK….+9
§HALF A BILLION….+8
*LUCKY NUMBERS….-+6
§*MY KINGDOM….-1
*JOHNNY CAVAGIN….-1
§*BARKSTON ASH….-4
MAGIC SECRET….-9
AL KHAN….-10

THREE TO DUTCH – CAPO ROSSO, ORBIT THE MOON, COLNEL MAK
20/80 – CAPO ROSSO
EXOTICS – CAPO ROSSO, ORBIT THE MOON, COLONEL MAK
LAY – AL KHAN
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low/middle preferred to high

ADVICE – Here we go again…brace yourselves! The last time I suggested laying AL KHAN I got the fingers scorched because they went a crawl and it played into this ones hands. Today it has the worst of the draw, the rains could not have come at a worse time and, it ran only 24 hours ago. If it wins this I’ll take it as a sign! My top three fit my bill perfectly and they carry my funds.

PONTEFRACT 5-40

*COMMANCHE RAIDER….+10
§*RIO’S GIRL….+8
*BEAUTY PAGEANT….+6
§*MAJESTIC MANANNAN….+/-0
*AMENABLE….-7
§*SCRIPT….-10
§BARON RUN….-11
§CAPTAIN SCOOBY….-23
§SIR GEOFFREY….-28
EL MCGLYNN….-29
§CHINA EXCELS….-30

ADVICE – I am not liking this one jot. My top rated is poorly drawn, my second best ran yesterday and I don’t punt such horses, my third highest rated also has a dodgy draw to run from and so, with MAJESTIC MANANNAN having been given the box slot, good to go on good ground, he’ll be my only play here….20/80.

CARLISLE 3-55

WADAA….+11
*CHOISAN….+6
*PROPHESY….+2
*PARTY LINE….-7
COSMIC SUN….-11
*MOHAWK RIDGE….-17
ALLNECESSARYFORCE….-26
NON DOM….-28
SINGZAK….-29
ALMAGEST….-38

ADVICE – This is a race worth £6.5k to the winner and should be giving me the right signs but all I’m thinking is, it’s “minty”! I’m going to dutch rated horses 2, 3 and 4 and have a 20/80 CHOISAN with exotics but the stakes will be miniscule.

CARLISLE 5-30

§BEAU AMADEUS….+15
*FIRST CLASS FAVOUR….+11
§CIRCUITOUS….+8
IMPERATOR AUGUSTUS….+8
§*TED’S BROTHER….-4
*NEZAMI….-7
§*JEBEL TARA….-15
DREAM WALKER….-22
§SILVER RIME….-28
FERDY….-34
STARBOTTON….-34

THREE TO DUTCH – BEAU AMADEUS, FIRST CLASS FAVOUR, TED’S BROTHER
20/80 – BEAU AMADEUS
EXOTICS – BEAU AMADEUS, FIRST CLASS FAVOUR, TED’S BROTHER
LAY – DREAM WALKER
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High preferred to middle with low least favoured

ADVICE – My top rated is having his first run for “Dandy” Nicholls and his first run since being gelded. The most significant thing for me though is the booking of Franny Norton. He has only been used by this yard, at this track, twice in the last five seasons and, he won on both of them. He tops my figures and despite reservations over the ground, he has to be my solo play. Franny also rides BEACON LIGHT for dandy in the 3-20 and if that wins then perhaps I’d look again but we’ll see. It is going to keep raining here all day and it by some fluke it went heavy them I would bin everything and just let it happen. My suggested lay wants it like slop, so even more of a reason to go put the kettle on instead of punting.

OF INTEREST

LINCOLN (Pontefract 2-20) – 20/80
ARSAADI (Pontefract 4-05) – 20/80
TARTARY (Ascot 3-40) – 20/80

With the weather messing with my mind today I’m going to leave it at that.

Have a great day and the very best of luck if you get involved

Kindest regards

Ron

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