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Today’s Ratings and Advice 26/07/13

Apologies for this arriving so late but I got up this morning to find my modem doing a more than passable impression of traffic lights – mostly stuck on red with intermittent amber but very little green. Life in the modern world, eh!

I am giving serious consideration to not sending out figures when the racing is as bad as it was yesterday. A couple of reasons for that but the main one is because of an e-mail I received from a member last night, who was kind enough to take the time to respond to something I wrote a week or so ago, about some members winning using my figures, and some not.

I’m now also loathe to mention the contents of e-mails because I understand it can be taken, wrongly, as my having a dig or a pop at a member for doing what they have done, or asking a question. That will never be the case…it’s not what I do…but if one person is thinking or doing something similar, then I feel kind of duty bound to mention it in the hope that anyone else doing the same thing, stops dead in their tracks. I have cleared this with the writer so, here goes:

Hi Ron

You wondered the other day why some people are struggling to show a profit. Today was a good example. After 5 days of good solid advice, I upped the stake money and what happens – everything loses, so I have wiped out half the previous 5 days gains. So the chances are I might abstain tomorrow – or at least halve my stake money again – and fate will doubtless ensure that I miss another good day.

Yes, I know they don’t run on rails, and I know you can lose at gambling, but over the summer I’ve managed to have too many bets on days that have not performed and too many non-betting days when they did perform.

I don’t know if that helps you at all – I think it’s basically down to psychology !

Best wishes, and better luck tomorrow !!!

My response:

Hi

The advice I basically gave today was to give it all a right old swerve. I attached text to a handful of races today and even then I myself punted to absolute pence. The racing today was rats, to be honest. I actually state in today’s Newsletter:

“Today is awful racing, with the odd exception. We have six meetings to work with but to save everyone time looking for the race I myself will be punting, I have only added text to those I will play. The rest well, entirely up to you. The horses running in some of those races today are seriously poor and about as trustworthy as an MP’s expenses claim form.”

Can I ask why you upped your stakes? I cannot understand why you would have done that, given what I said about the racing today? We have seen 26 horses pulled out of races today because of the lightning fast ground and in such small fields we get results, the form of which will mean absolutely nothing when looking at racing in a months time. Only 41 of all those horses rated today have winning form on granite and it was, to all intents and purposes, like playing a one armed bandit.

One of the things I do keep banging on about is sticking to your staking plan and never doing that because as sure as eggs make omelettes, you will suffer like you have today. My mantra is, “treat every day exactly the same, winning and losing, because what happened today counts for nothing tomorrow”.

I never, ever increase my staking, when winning or losing because in the long run, only one thing will happen.

Kindest regards

Ron
Yesterday, as I mention in my response, the racing was rats. Make no mistake. I doubt I spent £50 punting it all day and, during the podcast, that should hopefully be on the website today, you will hear Sean mention he has just watched a 1/3 shot turned over and my response is, “I’ve not even got it on, I’ll not watch that kind of racing”

No names, no pack drill but if that is how you have been betting then please, stop now and regroup.

I will look at a race and effectively grade it for punting purposes. Some will attract a bigger stake, some will be played to my October Rules but I never, ever, even when on a hot streak, up my staking beyond the level I have set. Please, do not ever go down that road because like I explain to our e-mailer, only one thing will happen in the long run. You will, as I have been at pains to point out, hit a losing day (that guarantee thing again!), and your profits will be smashed to smithereens.

Assumptions:

ASCOT – Flat (Updated:26/07/2013 at 09:17:48)
Going
Good
(GoingStick: Standside 8.0, Centre 7.9, Farside 8.2, Round 7.7
on Friday at 09:00)

Stalls
Straight Course: Centre

Weather
Dry overnight to Friday morning, due to be dry and warm on
Friday, thundery showers due Saturday afternoon and evening.
Rain clearing away on Sunday morning

CHEPSTOW – Flat (Updated:26/07/2013 at 07:41:13)
Going
Good to Firm (Watered)
Dry overnight
(5mm rain Weds night, 5mm rain Tues am)
(GoingStick: 7.9 on Friday at 07:30)

Stalls
Straight Course (5f – 1m) Middle

Weather
Forecast: Dry with sunny spells, max temp 24C.

Watering
16mm of irrigation applied to the whole track Monday/Tuesday.

NEWMARKET – Flat (Updated:26/07/2013 at 08:32:44)
Going
Good
(GoingStick: 7.1 on Thursday at 08:00)

Stalls
Far Side Course

Weather
12mm of rain on Tuesday.
7mm of rain on Thursday morning.
Dry overnight.
Friday Dry, warm and sunny.
Saturday Dry, warm and sunny until showers arriving late
afternoon.

THIRSK – Flat (Updated:26/07/2013 at 08:56:09)
Going
GOOD to FIRM (WATERED)
(GoingStick: 9.7 on Friday at 08:30)

Stalls
Straight Course – Stands’ Side

Rails
Both bends moved out from inside line to save ground, adding
circa 15 yards to the 7f distance.

Weather
1mm overnight rain. Fine day in store Friday

YORK – Flat (Updated:26/07/2013 at 06:18:45)
Going
Good to Firm
Going stick in home straight; Stands Side – ( ) Centre – ( ) Far
Side – ( )
(GoingStick: tba on Friday at 12:00)

Stalls
5f, 5f89yrds, 6f and 1m4f – centre; remainder – inside rail.

Rails
Rail on home bend from 9f to entrance to home straight moved to
provide fresh racing line; race distances for races of 1 mile
and over reduced by 20 yards.

Weather
Dry overnight. Bright sunny morning. Met Office Forecast:
Friday – dry and warm with good sunny spells, 23
degrees. Saturday; Bright & sunny in morning, clouding over in
afternoon, 22 degrees

Watering
Watered with 3mm overnight to maintain Good to Firm

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses perceived as best drawn

THIRSK 5-00

*DARTRIX….+8
BLUE SHOES….+6
SEE CLEARLY….-7
*CHARLEMAGNE DIVA….-8
*LADY ROYALE….-15
LUCIES DIAMOND….-19
BALINKA….-30
ENCHANTED DREAM….-34
SHESNOTFORTURNING….-40
KARATE QUEEN….-40

ASCOT 3-10

*BROXBOURNE….-1
*DESERT RECLUSE….-7
HOMERIC….-12
*HIGHLAND CASTLE….-19
MAWAQEET….-29
MYSTERIOUS MAN….-39

ASCOT 4-50

§GABBIANO….+11
§*IRISH BOY….+5
§*WHITECREST….-7
*LUJEANIE….-12
*BEST BE CAREFUL….-12
*RYLEE MOOCH….-16
*ROWE PARK….-17
*GLADIATRIX….-20
*WHERE’S REILEY….-25
§HUNTSMANS CLOSE….-31
MUHDIQ….-35
§DIAMOND CHARLIE….-38
LANGLEY VALE….-40
OVERRIDER….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – GABBIANO, IRISH BOY, WHITECREST
20/80 – IRISH BOY
EXOTICS – GABBIANO, IRISH BOY, WHITECREST
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High drawn preferred over middle, low hamstrung.

ADVICE – I would be suggesting my top one was a bet of the day but for the fact two previous runs on good ground have resulted in unplaced efforts. Now, it may well be….most probably…that by 4-50 we have good to firm, which he requires to give of his best. If that is the case then he most definitely becomes the single play, as opposed to IRISH BOY. One, I’m afraid, you are going to have to keep an eye on if you can.

NEWMARKET 5-35

DAMA DE LA NOCHE….-29
SRINIGAR GIRL….-33
EMPOWERMENTOFWOMEN….-34
GOLDEN CAUSEWAY….-36
SURENESS….-40
LEXI’S DANCER….-40
TRULEE SCRUMPTIOUS….-40
FROSTY FRIDAY….-40

NEWMARKET 7-10

*AUTHORITARIAN….+9
JAMAICA GRANDE….+3
EVER FORTUNE….-8
*FABLED CITY….-18
SIR MIKE….-20
LIVING LEADER….-25
ON MY OWN….-28
WILFRED PICKLES….-28
GREYFRIARSCHORISTA….-32

NEWMARKET 8-10

*SEMEEN….+7
*SADLER’S RISK….+5
HEPWORTH….-6
THE QUARTERBACK….-17
VILLORESI….-21
ROYAL DUTCH….-24
CRANACH….-29

CHEPSTOW 6-20

*TOOLEY WOODS….+10
LUNETTE….+10
*DANCING WELCOME….-4
*HOPPY’S FLYER….-8
CAPE CROSSING….-18
RIVER PAGEANT….-23
CELESTIAL BAY….-24

CHEPSTOW 7-20

*OFFBEAT SAFARIS….-15
PEAK STORM….-16
SOARING SPIRITS….-23
ANOTHER SQUEEZE….-24
ERNEST SPEAK….-37
CHEERS BIG EARS….-38
MANDY THE NAG….-40
OGARITMO….-40

CHEPSTOW 7-50

*STONECRABSTOMORROW….-2
*MEMPHIS MAN….-10
*BABY QUEEN….-17
*JARROW….-20
BELLE BAYARDO….-24
ALPHA DELTA WHISKY….-28
MANDY LEXI….-31
LAGER TIME….-35
TIDAL’S BABY….-37

CHEPSTOW 8-20

*DESCARO….-17
ROCK PEAK….-19
*PASS THE TIME….-28
ARCH EVENT….-35
NOOR AL HAYA….-36
CAPTAIN OATS….-40

CHEPSTOW 8-55

JEWELLED DAGGER….+14
JAN DE HEEM….+11
TASTE THE WINE….+5
JAMES POLLARD….+1
BOLD CROSS….-5
PIERS GEVSTON….-6
BRAVE HELIOS….-7
RANCHER….-8
EUROQUIP BOY….-11
GABRIAL THE DUKE….-19
SOMMERSTURM….-20
PURSIVERE….-22
KRISTALLO….-23
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY….-29
SHIRAZZ….-33

YORK 6-30

§*DIMAN WATERS….+7
§*MEDICI TIME….+6
*MAPPIN TIME….+6
*PEA SHOOTER….+5
§*SUNRAIDER….+4
*CORPORAL MADDOX….+3
§*PICTURE DEALER….+1
*MON BRAV….-3
§BOP IT….-8
§*CARANBOLA….-9
§*MOUNT HOLLOW….-12
*TRADE SECRET….-17
*MEANDMYSHADOW….-18
BALDEMAR….-26
SOUND AMIGO….-28
HADAJ….-30
BONNIE CHARLIE….-36
TAROOQ….-37
SIR PEDRO….-40
DEFENCE COUNCIL….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – DIMAN WATERS, MEDICI TIME, SUNRAIDER
20/80 – DIMAN WATERS
EXOTICS – DIMAN WATERS, MEDICI TIME, SUNRAIDER
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High preferred to middle and again low looks to have a bit of a job on.

ADVICE – I have opted to work with three in my top six having been awarded a decent draw (if I’m right), and good to go on good to firm.

YORK 8-00

*FROG HOLLOW….+9
*JO’BURG….-8
*EHTEDAAM….-12
*LORD AERYN….-14
*ALTHAROOS….-15
NO POPPY….-18
GARDE COTIERE….-22
GREEN HOWARD….-25
DUBAI HILLS….-26
STEEL STOCKHOLDER….-30

In all rated races today that have no text applied it’s again, I’m afraid, down to your judgement but if they are what you are looking for then consider only punting horses marked * and, please make sure that the going has not changed from that currently described, to M6.

OF INTEREST

ULTRASONIC (Ascot 3-45) – straight win
ELEVENTH HOUR (Thirsk 2-45) – 20/80
SOLICITATION (Chepstow 5-45) – 20/80
SECRET BEAU (Chepstow 6-50) – straight win
LADY NOUF (York 7-30) – 20/80

Until we get some rain and the field sizes increase opportunities for a lay or bet of the day will be seriously compromised. it’ll come though!

Have a great day and, again, apologies for this being so late but technology beat me today!

Kindest regards

Ron

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