Breaking News
Home / Today's Newsletter / Today’s Ratings and Advice 24/07/13

Today’s Ratings and Advice 24/07/13

I discovered something yesterday that first made me wince, then got me a tad annoyed.

Musselburgh 3-30….I had Talk Of Saafend top rated for that race and whilst I indicated in my text that it was not a race we should take seriously, I also mentioned that my top rated had been withdrawn from a race at Cartmel just the day before. When I got back to my office late yesterday afternoon, I made a point of trying to find out what had been the issue, after I saw the result, my top rated more or less tailed off.

On the BHA website I found the section that tells the public just why a vet saw fit to issue a certificate, allowing the horse to be withdrawn. In this case, Talk Of Saafend had a bruised foot. The question I ask….and I am no vet….is, can a horse having been withdrawn 24 hours earlier, because of a bruised foot, reasonably be expected to be clear of this injury 24 hours later, and perform to it’s optimum? If the answer is no (and I will be asking this question of a qualified vet), then why was the horse allowed to compete?

Had the trainer self certified, the horse would not have been allowed to race anywhere for six days minimum. Why does this not also apply to a vets certificate?

Like I say, I’m no vet but this does all seem extraordinary to me.

Today I will also be trying to find out why the original jockey booked to ride chose not to do so, Paul Hanagan replaced by P J McDonald.

The only race I was really interested in playing yesterday was that 4-00 and my top rated horse, Red baron, hosed in. That calmed me down a little!

Today we have three meetings but not a lot of races (or horses), to work with. These small fields must be driving jockey, trainers and the racecourses mad. At Sandown this evening we have just 44 horses spread across the six races taking place and only one claiming jockey has a ride outside the apprentice race being run at 5-50. Quite a few senior jockeys will be there for just one ride and that’s not going to keep the wolf from the door. We need a few days of rain to provide some genuine racing ground again.

Assumptions:

CATTERICK BRIDGE – Flat (Updated:24/07/2013 at 06:59:23)
Going
Good to Firm, Good in places

Stalls
7f – Centre

Weather
Dry overnight
8mm rain Tuesday
Forecast: Wednesday – Overcast morning, becoming brighter with
30% chance of a shower 23C

Watering
Watered
Applied 12-15mm to whole course Thursday/Friday
Applied 12mm to whole course Friday/Saturday
Applied 8-10mm to whole course Monday/Tuesday

LEICESTER – Flat (Updated:24/07/2013 at 06:54:35)
Going
Straight- Good,Good to Soft in places. Round- Good
(GoingStick: Straight-7.7 Round-8.0 on Wednesday at 06:30)

Stalls
Straight – Centre Round – Inside

Weather
5 mm Rain overnight. Forecast:Dry with sunny spells max temp 24c.

SANDOWN PARK – Flat (Updated:23/07/2013 at 15:28:26)
Going
Good to Firm (Round Course Good in places)
(GoingStick: Round 8.3 Sprint 8.4 on Wednesday at 15:00)

Stalls
Sprint Course – Far Side (rail 3 yards in)

Rails
Railed out 3 yards from 1m 1f to Winning Post on Round Course,
adding 5 yards to Round Course distances.

Weather
3mm rain overnight then 5mm in further showers Tuesday morning.
Further showers possible through Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Wednesday dry – 26 degrees.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses perceived as being best drawn

CATTERICK 4-00

*SILVANUS….+12
*CHUNKY DIAMOND….+9
*LOST N PARIS….+9
*ANGELITO….-11
*SUNRISE DANCE….-18
TANGO SKY….-24
TOWBEE….-30
ECONOMIC CRISIS….-34

ADVICE – A top three dutch for me, a 20/80 my top one and exotics. Nice little race this.

CATTERICK 4-30

*LADY KILDARE….+9
SINAI….-2
§*ALMATY EXPRESS….-3
*BAYBESHAMBLES….-6
§LAYLA’S HERO….-12
§WINDFORPOWER….-15
ONLY FOR YOU….-15
ROSE OF MAY….-21
LORD BUFFHEAD….-27
§JAY KAY….-33
RAT CATCHER….-39
BUSY BIMBO….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – LADY KILDARE, ALMATY EXPRESS, BAYBESHAMBLES
20/80 – LADY KILDARE
EXOTICS – LADY KILDARE, ALMATY EXPRESS, BAYBESHAMBLES
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low marginally preferred to high, middle snookered.

ADVICE – A race I’ll be playing to October Rules levels of stake. Awful stuff really but I’ll trust my top rated to run with my solo play as whilst not best drawn, the mare is not worst drawn either and, she has won previously on fast ground.

LEICESTER 8-20

*CREEK FALCON….+16
*SKYTRAIN….+7
AVAILABLE….+5
*AZREAL….-8
*ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE….-11
*BROCTUNE PAPA GIO….-13
*ELUSIVE HAWK….-16
*NASRI….-21
RED PALADIN….-29
TAWTHEEQ….-30
MY SINGLE MALT….-40

ADVICE – We have three 3-y-o’s in here but none has me running scared than TAWTHEEQ. Handicap debut for Richard Hannon, a Hamdan Al Maktoun owned beast who cost 165,000Gns as a yearling. He is still an entire and the reason I’ll not bet this race.

SANDOWN 8-05

*CONSIGN….+11
*MACCHIARA….-6
*TOGA TIGER….-8
FULNEY….-10
LUTINE BELL….-15
RELATED….-17
ESTIFAAZ….-26
SHORT SQUEEZE….-39

ADVICE – It’s a straight win bet my top one, no dutch but the top two for exotics.

SANDOWN 8-40

*BRIDGEHAMPTON….+10
*SPICE FAIR….-2
*COSIMO DE MEDICI….-7
PORCINI….-12
*ENGLISH SUMMER….-19
*ADMIRABLE DUQUE….-29
*GOOD BOY JACKSON….-35
INTO THE WIND….-40

ADVICE – Another straight win bet the top rated, no dutch but, exotics the top three using my top rated as a banker.

OF INTEREST

PURE AMBER (Catterick 2-00) – 20/80
SMART PAYER (Catterick 2-30) – straight win
FLORA MEDICI (Catterick 3-00) – 20/80
HOMAGE (Sandown 7-30) – straight win
GOLD BEAU (Leicester 6-10) – place only (if all eight go to post)

No bet or lay of the day again….

Tomorrow I have six meetings to look at but the fields have simply fallen apart already. We have 276 horses looking to contest 40 races, an average of just 6.9 horses per race. Some jockeys will be dining on fresh air next week.

Have a great day and the very best of luck if you do get involved

Kindest regards

Ron

About Ron

Check Also

Today’s Ratings and OF INTEREST selections 09/11/17

One of the horses we were involved in runs for his new yard today. TOWER …