That had to happen yesterday, didn’t it! Last race at Ballinrobe last night, King William beat Hospital on the day the Royal baby was born. Coincidences, don’t you just love ’em.
Can you believe we had the first three winners at Windsor? Admittedly they were all “shorties” but, it’s Windsor! I only punted the first two of them as I was very aware of the gamble taking place on the 3-y-o handicap debutante in the 7-20, Norphin, 14/1 > 7/2 and decided to leave it alone. I needn’t have worried really as my figures did prove correct and despite hating the fast ground my top rated duly obliged.
Declamation made it three winners from four selections in the OF INTEREST section and we have to be more than happy with that, especially as the day’s racing was not really up to much at all.
The only rated race I was interested in playing saw my top rated come home in second place @ 16/1. Even in that small field I could see how the draw was going to effect that result. Four of the first five home were drawn 1, 2, 3 and 4 but unfortunately, I didn’t have that first time blinkered winner, Oil Strike, on my mind.
Today we have one meeting only to work with because I will not even glance at Ffos Las for another few months yet. I build my own databases regarding every course and at this moment in time I do not have enough empirical data to construct a case for any horse.
It’s good to firm, we have no draw bias I can see to bother us and so, it’s a case of playing those races you fancy offers up a profit.
ADVICE – If you are still in the “realm” of “noble” coincidences then you can only punt rated horses 2 & 6….but we are all more sensible than that…..i hope! My top rated has never won on ground quicker than good but has placed twice from seven attempts on ground similar to that he faces today. The jockey booking had my right eyebrow rise…slightly, but it rose….because Alan Berry has employed Robert Winston to steer his only twice before and, he won on one of ’em. In truth it’s not a race I want to write 500 words about and if I punt, it’ll be just a top two dutch, a 20/80 ROYAL STRAIGHT and an exotic but the layers handling my play will not be sent into a fit of panic.
*TALK OF SAAFEND….+8
*KING OF PARADISE….-17
ADVICE – We have not been blessed with racing fit for purpose this week and hopefully that changes tomorrow. My top rated was pulled out at Cartmel on Monday and has been out with the washing over hurdles (10th of 12, beaten 55 lengths), on July 3rd. For punting purposes it’s a race that appeals about as much as this 5-2 fasting diet I’m on. Someone recently asked me what I’ve lost since going on it….I replied, “the will to live”. Maybe this race hasn’t quite got me that bad but it’s one I’ll again only play to pennies and it’s that top two dutch again, 20/80 my top one and a small exotic.
*THE NIFTY FOX….+10
*GO GO GREEN….+2
I’LL BE GOOD….-27
ADVICE – This is better! I did, for a split second, consider we may have a high draw bias here but given how I feel this will be run, the winner could come from anywhere. I will dutch my top three, go 20/80 RED BARON and set up my exotics. Staking will be a touch bigger than for the first two races but again, nothing earth shattering.
ADVICE – This’ll take place without my parting with a penny. My top rated looks the best horse in the race but would you be looking to punt a horse 0-13 on turf, trading as short as he is? Me neither. If he wins, good luck to him. GRAND ART appeals much more as a 20/80 play but that’s a bit like me saying I’d prefer to be hit by a bus as opposed to drowning.
*HERE NOW AND WHY….+1
PRINCE OF VASA….-21
ADVICE – Last week I had Burnwynd Boy top rated and he was punted off the boards before coming up short. Today Keith Dalgleish saddles both this one and the odds on favourite (rated 8th best), his pair fronting the tissue. I’m just going to have a 20/80 BURNWYND BOY but staking will be on the same level as that earlier pair.
Again, as predicted yesterday, we have no bet or lay of the day, today.
It’s probably a day to go do something constructive, to be honest. If you do get involved just work to minimum staking.
Have a great day and best of luck whatever you opt to do.