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Today’s Ratings and Advice 16/07/13

I have just finished reading an article in today’s Racing Post that highlights the perils of trusting anyone out there doing what we are doing at Post Racing. It is a story about several blokes that decided they would set about fleecing people on the understanding they were going to help them punt the winners of horse races. They would offer “tips” at what seemed really sensible prices and, when they provided a new member with a winner in their first advice, they would then offer them an “exclusive” service for an extortionate amount of money. It’s far more involved and nothing like as simple a scam as I have just described and I suggest you read it yourself.

On the other side of the coin though, we have genuine people who are working hard at this game, to try and help those with a passion for it (and who enjoy a bet), to get more enjoyment and success from gambling, than would normally be the case.

I am going to write a piece for the website today that will explain, as best I can, the attitude anyone betting on horses has to adopt, or you will never enjoy it.

Anyone playing any form of “gambling” knows that as soon as they part with their money, one of two things is going to happen. It’s either gone for good (most likely), or you’ll get it returned with interest. Some of the communications I get when things have not gone so well indicates to me that not everyone has the mind set to do this properly, are not set up financially for the long term investment and one or two losing days kills them stone dead.

I know these same people have also been enjoying the purple patch we have been sitting in for the last couple of months so, my question is, what have they been doing with their profits? Why is the bank not there to enable them to sustain losing days? A lot of people honestly believe that I’m some kind of genius they have hooked up to, that will produce for them profits every single day we “gamble”. In truth I’m just someone that knows and understands gambling on race horses, that has worked out how to find winners and works hard at doing that but, who also understands that to win at the game it has to be treated in exactly the same way as any form of investment.

You have to plan, punt sensibly and most importantly, understand that you will have more losing days than winning ones. If you have not got the psyche for it, or the understanding of this, and if a losing day causes you to get angry, annoyed or even remotely twitchy, you should not be gambling on anything, let alone flesh and blood.

TODAY

Assumptions:

BATH – Flat (Updated:16/07/2013 at 07:07:25)
Going
Firm
(GoingStick: 11.9 on Tuesday at 07:00)

Stalls
5f & 5.5f Centre

Weather
Forecast:Dry, Warm and Hazy Am – Bright & Sunny PM max temps 29C.

BEVERLEY – Flat (Updated:14/07/2013 at 07:57:57)
Going
Good to Firm (watering)

Stalls
Inside (all races)

Rails
The rail around the bottom bend will be moved in to provide
fresh ground, adding 12yards to all races except 5f.

Weather
Forecast remains dry and warm through till raceday

Watering
Track has been watered little and often since last raceday
(20mm) and will continue to water to maintain current
conditions.

YARMOUTH – Flat (Updated:16/07/2013 at 07:10:12)
Going
Good to Firm, (Firm in Places in the chute)
(GoingStick: 7.9 on Tuesday at 06:45)

Stalls
Straight – Middle, 1m1f – Inside, 1m6f – Stands side

Rails
Back straight and bottom bend dolled out 3m, adding on 15m to all
races 1m1f and above

Weather
Forecast is dry and bright through to racing with a light wind.
temperatures around +20c.

Watering
Watering to maintain
Tuesday – Straight.

*indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses perceived as being best drawn

BATH 2-45

*POWERFUL WIND….+17
*WASEEM FARIS….+8
WHITECREST….-5
BILLYRAYVALENTINE….-5
*BEST BE CAREFUL….-12
BURNING THREAD….-20

BATH 3-15

*BOLD CROSS….-10
GLENS WOBBLY….-20
INFFIRAAJ….-27
PETERSBODEN….-30
NICKY NUTJOB….-37
FAITH JICARO….-39

BATH 4-45

MARIA MONTEZ….-30
GINZAN….-31
CATALINAS DIAMOND….-38
SULIS MINERVA….-40
NIGHT TRADE….-40
TREGERETH….-40

BATH 5-15

*COMPTONSPIRIT….+11
*DREAMS OF GLORY….+10
MAJESTIC RED….-2
WODDEN KING….-4
BHELEYF….-14
*EVEN BOLDER….-15
VOLCANIC DUST….-22
VOLITO….-26
CHARISMAS BIRTHDAY….-38

ADVICE – Bath today is simply awful racing. I myself will not play any rated race here except for the last of them and even then it will be to absolute buttons. If you are punting these races concentrate solely on those marked *….in that last race it’s simply a top two dutch and a straight win bet my top rated plus an exotic.

BEVERLEY 2-30

*YOU’RELIKEMEFRANK….+10
*CHOC’A’MOCA….+9
*IVESTAR….+9
§CODE SIX….+8
*DONE DREAMING….+8
ONE KOOL DUDE….-4
§SEE VERMONT….-10
CHESTER DEELYTE….-11
§INGENTI….-12
HEADSTIGHT….-17
§SCARLET STRAND….-21
BUSY BIMBO….-25

ADVICE – Thinking middle draw look best placed but, none look good enough to take advantage of their good fortune. Low/high will not be overly inconvenienced based on that perception and so I will simply dutch my top three, go 20/80 my top rated and set up teedly exotics.

BEVERLEY 3-00

*TARTAN JURA….+11
*MOJOLIKA….+8
UP TEN DOWN TWO….+5
*PLATINUM….-6
BODY LANGUAGE….-9
NASHVILLE….-17

ADVICE – Poor turn out for the prize but this very quick ground is doing as much damage as those rains did last year….much prefer the sun on my own back though! Top two for my own bets but pennies only being placed on my having this right.

BEVERLEY 4-30

*EENY MAC….+4
MUJAADEL….-7
SUMMER DANCER….-14
*BLUE MAISEY….-15
EVANESCENT….-18
LAST DESTINATION….-20
RELIGHT MY FIRE….-29
JUST THE TONIC….-35
FAME AGAIN….-38
DESTINATION AIM….-39

ADVICE – I will just have a small 20/80 my top rated. Most certainly not a race for getting stuck in to!

BEVERLEY 5-35

§*WICKED WILMA….+9
*SIR GEOFFREY….+9
§*MOUSIE….+5
§EMILY HALL….-3
EDITH ANNE….-7
ISLE OF ELLIS….-9
§JOHN COFFEY….-13
§TRENDING….-13
TOO AMBITIOUS….-20
BLUE NOODLES….-25
NICEONEMYSON….-35

THREE TO DUTCH – WICKED WILMA, SIR GEOFFREY, MOUSIE
20/80 – WICKED WILMA
EXOTICS – WICKED WILMA, SIR GEOFFREY, MOUSIE
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Middle only just favoured over low.high.

ADVICE – I’m punting as suggested but again, staking will hardly cause a ripple on the betting ponds. It is simply very, very poor racing right across the cards today and if you have something better to do, might I suggest you do it?

YARMOUTH 6-50

*ARCH WALKER….-15
*ALFRESCO….-23
*QUALITY ART….-32
AMIS REUNIS….-34
SWEET TALKING GUY….-35
BIRDIE QUEEN….-40
MARMALADE MOON….-40
MYSTICAL WITCH….-40
ZAMMY….-40

ADVICE – No offence to John and Kirsty but if ARCH WALKER is topping my figures, this must be desperate. The yard has not had a winner on turf so far this season but they might here….wouldn’t bet on it though, and wont.

YARMOUTH 7-20

*MINALISA….+9
NASSAU STORM….-1
BURNHOPE….-6
*PIAZZA SAN PIETRO….-8
*CLEAR SPRING….-12
ANGEL WAY….-19
EQUITANIA….-20
MAGLIETTA FINA….-30

ADVICE – I will just have a small straight win bet my top one.

OF INTEREST

None today

No bet or lay of the day, either. I was watching the racing yesterday convinced they had overwatered at Ayr. The results that came out of there indicated horses with a liking for ease in the ground were best suited to whatever it was they were racing on and that might well be the case elsewhere today. We will only know afterwards.

I’m placing my own bets handy (such as they are), and getting out early doors for a coffee and lunch with Karen, Paul and Kathryn….it has to be much more preferable than watching that nonsense from Bath.

Have a great day, whatever you opt to do and best of luck!

Kindest regards

Ron

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