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Today’s Ratings and Advice 12/07/13

Yesterday saw new members signing up to both 500 Club and Site Membership and welcome they are, too. I guess when things are going well, which they certainly are this season, good news travels and long may it continue.

Funny though, we had a Site member leave us two weeks ago and I thought I would drop him a line asking if he had been struggling with anything and basically asking for a little feedback. He kindly responded advising me he was primarily looking for lay advice and I sat there a tad stunned because at that point we were sitting on 16 from 16 consecutive lays beaten and I wondered what it was exactly he was looking for. I responded pointing this fact out and have yet to hear from him but I do wonder how he would be feeling now, if he knew we have now enjoyed 31 consecutive lay advices getting turned over, after the trio advised yesterday all bit the dust, two of them going off favourite.

Several more requests have since come in asking me to provide a lay only advice service and if I do opt to go down this road it will be limited in terms of numbers coming on board because, as I have pointed out before, it would be plain daft if a couple of thousand people were all trying to lay the same horses in each race.

The way it would work is, I would provide those involved with the horses I myself will be looking to lay in every rated race. As I have said before, you get the ones right now that trade tissue favourite and sit outside my top six rated at the time of writing but I myself am laying several horses in each race and, with the Ratings performing so well right now in terms of winners sited inside my top six horses, you can only imagine how well the lay side is going personally.

Yesterday was another stunning day of punting….and laying….and I am expecting the Betfair police to come knocking any time soon. Hopefully today mirrors those results and we go into the weekend so far ahead it will not matter what happens Saturday/Sunday

Assumptions:

ASCOT – Flat (Updated:12/07/2013 at 07:34:53)
Going
Straight Course: Good to Firm (watered)
Round Course: Good to Firm,Good in places (Watered)
(GoingStick: Straight : 9.0, Round : 8.3 on Thursday at 08:15)

Stalls
Straight Course: Standside

Rails
The running rail on the round course has been positioned
3yds in from 1m 4f start to home bend increasing to 9yds
down the straight, decreasing to 3yds after the winning line
to join at the 1m 4f.
Increasing distances by approx. the following
Old Mile: 10yds
1m 2f: 14yds
1m4f: 16yds
1m 6f: 18yds

Weather
Dry overnight. Fine, warm and dry forecast

Watering
Watered: Straight course 40mm since Sunday
Round Course: 22mm since Sunday

Other
Updated Goingstick readings to follow

CHEPSTOW – Flat (Updated:12/07/2013 at 06:37:23)
Going
Good to Firm – Watered
(GoingStick: 8.9 on Friday at 06:30)

Stalls
Straight Course (6f – 1m) Centre

Weather
Forecast: Dry, hot and sunny, max temp 27C.

Watering
24mm irrigation applied Tuesday through Thursday.

CHESTER – Flat (Updated:12/07/2013 at 06:38:38)
Going
Good to Firm, Good in places (Watered)
(GoingStick: 7.9 on Thursday at 07:00)

Stalls
1m 2f – Outside, All other races – Inside

Rails
The rail between the 6f and 1 1/2f point has been moved out
by 6yds. This means actual race distances will be: Race 1
7f 146y(+24y), Race 2 7f 26y(+24y), Race 3 5f 36y(+20y),
Race 4 5f 36y(+20y), Race 5 1m 4f 104y(+104y), Race 6 7f 2y
(+24y), Race 7 1m 2f 101y(+20y).

Weather
Dry and sunny day with max temps of 26c.

Watering
3mm applied on Wednesday, further 5mm applied on
Thursday.

NEWMARKET – Flat (Updated:11/07/2013 at 19:03:31)
Going
Good to Firm (Watered)
(GoingStick: 8.3 (Stand Side 8.3; Centre 8.2; Far Side 8.1) on
Thursday at 10:30)

Stalls
Stand Side Course

Weather
Dry, warm and sunny for the remainder of the week.

Watering
6mm of irrigation being applied to the whole course after racing
on Thursaday.

YORK – Flat (Updated:12/07/2013 at 07:59:16)
Going
Good to Firm
Going stick in home straight; Stands Side – 7.4; Centre – 7.6;
Far Side – 7.5
(GoingStick: 7.7 on Friday at 07:45)

Stalls
5f, 6f and 1m4f – centre; remainder – inside rail.

Rails
Racing on inside racing line for this meeting around home bend
reducing race official race distances for races of one mile and
over by 24 yards

Weather
Met office forecast: Early Friday morning cloud and mist
clearing to give way to a dry, sunny raceday – 27 degrees.
Saturday – dry, clear, sunny morning with some cloud cover in
afternoon, 26 degrees.

Watering
Watering to maintain.

Other
Standside canter-down will not be used for this meeting.
Saturday raceday traffic likely to be busy – please leave plenty
of time for your journey.
Horse cooling misting-fans in use in addition to usual water
cooling facilities.
Dress code relaxed for this meeting in County Stand – gentlemen
not required to wear jackets.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described.
§ indicates horses perceived as being best drawn.

NEWMARKET 5-35

*LORD OFTHE SHADOWS….+9
*BASSARA….+9
AZMA….+3
HENRY THE AVIATOR….-5
*COMMON TOUCH….-15
*ALBAQAA….-15
*BASSETERRE….-24
FILS ANGES….-26
EXOTIC GUEST….-34

ADVICE – Here I will just set up a top two dutch, go 20/80 LORD OFTHE SHADOWS and an exotic….AZMA in for a small tricast.

ASCOT 3-05

*CARAVAN ROLLS ON….-12
*INVESTISSEMENT….-24
*NOBLE SILK….-25
SADLER’S RISK….-26
*TAGLIATELLE….-29
SUEGIOO….-31
SILVER LIME….-33
SWINGING HAWK….-36
SIZZLER….-40
SOFTSONG….-40

ADVICE – This looks simple enough. I have one clear top, albeit to a minus figure and I will play straight win. I will dutch with NOBLE SILK to pay for it and set up an exotic. If i do get greedy and fancy the tricast then INVESTISSEMENT will be popped into that play.

ASCOT 3-40

*SAINT HELENA….-4
*LADY ROSAMUNDE….-16
PARTY LINE….-16
*EMMAN BEE….-27
SAINT HILARY….-31
MUTHMERA….-32
MISS CAP ESTEL….-33
KIKONGA….-36
POETIC VERSE….-36

ADVICE – An unexposed three year old sits tissue favourite and 6th best on my numbers….only to be expected, given how I work. I will simply have a 20/80 SAINT HELENA and see if the younger horses can beat their elders. If my places then I trouser a profit off the race.

ASCOT 4-15

§*GABBIANO….+8
§*SIGNOR SASSI….+4
§*PIAZZA SAN PIETRO….-4
*CHUNKY DIAMOND….-9
*CREW CUT….-9
*LINKS DRIVE LADY….-14
*AL KHAN….-17
*APOLLO D’NEGRO….-17
§*POWERFUL PRESENCE….-19
*SIR PEDRO….-22
ALNOOMAAS….-22

THREE TO DUTCH – GABBIANO, SIGNOR SASSI, PIAZZA SAN PIETRO
20/80 – GABBIANO
EXOTICS – GABBIANO, SIGNOR SASSI, PIAZZA SAN PIETRO
LAY – AL KHAN
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High preferred

ADVICE – Top three all have draw and ground right so, I will work with them.

YORK 3-30

*BOLLIN GRETA….-1
*WARLU WAY….-11
*NANTON….-12
*HIGH OFFICE….-14
*ART SCHOLAR….-22
BRIDLE BELLE….-27
ITHOUGHTITWASOVER….-33
KIWAYU….-37

ADVICE – My figures suggest we can expect a repeat of the result we saw in this race last season and so, 20/80 BOLLIN GRETA, top two dutch to pay for that bet and an exotic….NANTON in for a tricast.

YORK 4-05

§*LADY GIBRALTAR….+10
§*PONTY ACCLAIM….+8
*SECRET ASSET….+8
*TAX FREE….+7
*HAZELRIGG….+3
*FITZ FLYER….-4
*LOVE ISLAND….-8
§ARCTIC FEELING….-14
§*STONE OF FOLCA….-15
§*LAST SOVEREIGN….-15
*DEMORA….-17
CHEVIOT….-17
BAPAK CHINTA….-18
*DORBACK….-20
§MAYFIELD GIRL….-23
UBETTERBEGOOD….-26

THREE TO DUTCH – LADY GIBRALTAR, PONTY ACCLAIM, SECRET ASSET
20/80 – LADY GIBRALTAR
EXOTICS – LADY GIBRALTAR, PONTY ACCLAIM, SECRET ASSET
LAY – DEMORA
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low best.

ADVICE – Top pair have going and draw right and SECRET ASSET is drawn to be competitive, if not quite as competitive as those low. I’ll happily work with my top three. I know I will hit the buffers eventually, laying these favourites but whilst the iron is hot, let’s strike it.

YORK 4-40

§*CHANCERY….+10
§*CHRISTMAS LIGHT….+8
§OETZI….+8
§ALMAGEST….+6
§*SIZE….+6
§*JO’BURG….+5
§*MAVEN….+/-0
*BARREN BROOK….-5
§*CARRAGOLD….-6
*TITUS BOLT….-15
§*DADDY WARBUCKS….-20
*LUCKY HENRY….-25
§PROPHESY….-31
ELTHEEB….-32

THREE TO DUTCH – CHANCERY, CHRISTMAS LIGHT, SIZE
20/80 – CHANCERY
EXOTICS – CHANCERY, CHRISTMAS LIGHT, SIZE
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low/middle best, high struggling.

ADVICE – David O’Meara is throwing the kitchen sink at this! Four of the 14 runners going to post making the short trip from Helmsley which I guess means a tiny fuel bill for their owners. Three of his four sit inside my top six and I guess that means he has things sorted….if my figures are right. I’ve plucked three in my size marked §* for my own play and we’ll see if i’m right.

CHEPSTOW 7-40

*THE SCUTTLER….+9
*PEAK STORM….+2
SACRED SQUARE….-9
OFFBEAT SAFARIS….-20
DANA’S PRESENT….-28
ANOTHER SQUEEZE….-29
SCOTTISH GLEN….-33

ADVICE – My third best looks nailed on to improve past my figure and if he wins pulling a cart I’ll not be surprised. I’ll just have a 20/80 my top one and we’ll see if the runes speak true.

CHEPSTOW 8-10

FEHAYDI….-8
*POSTSCRIPT….-8
*VAINGLORY….-10
FLASHLIGHT….-11
*THE CAYTERERS….-19
SHAHDAROBA….-21

ADVICE – My top rated looks a good thing but I’d not be taking odds on in a handicap, no sirree Bob! If I can get me some evens I will go straight win but otherwise, I’m just a bystander.

CHEPSTOW 8-40

SARANGOO….+9
ANGELIC UPSTART….-8
*CORPORAL MADDOX….-13
DASHING DAVID….-21
ELNADWA….-23
*KAMCHATKA….-25

ADVICE – Horrible little race. I might chuck a small 20/80 at CORPORAL MADDOX, as he is the highest rated horse here having won on good to firm.

CHESTER 8-50

§MASKED DANCE….+13
§*GREEN PARK….+9
§*FERDY….+8
*MUFTARRES….+8
§*SEE THE STORM….+1
§*THE MONGOOSE….-9
*ELUSIVE HAWK….-15
PICENO….-21
KIMBALI….-23
*GABRIAL’S GIFT….-24
AN CAT DUBH….-29
ONE SCOOP OR TWO….-29
NEZAMI….-37

THREE TO DUTCH – GREEN PARK, FERDY, SEE THE STORM
20/80 – GREEN PARK
EXOTICS – GREEN PARK, FERDY, SEE THE STORM
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low best

ADVICE – I’m not going to complicate things here….three best rated, in my top six, having §*, get the gig.

OF INTEREST

FIRE BLAZE (Newmarket 2-10) – 20/80
TRUE STORY (Newmarket 3-50) – straight win
HESKIN (Chester 6-50) – straight win
SALFORD RED DEVIL (Chester 7-50) – straight win
BALTIC GIN (Chepstow 7-10) – 20/80

BET OF THE DAY

CHANCERY – everything looks set for a big run again today and my thoughts are he’s banker 20/80 material.

LAY OF THE DAY

None today

Have a brilliant day and the very best of luck!

Kindest regards

Ron

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