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Today’s Ratings and Advice 11/07/13

As much as it pains me to say it, we might have issues of a different kind, with the going. At Lingfield yesterday we saw it dry out to firm, which very few horses let themselves down on and today, with scorching conditions across the country, you need to factor that into any bets you might be considering.

Bath, for instance. It is always firm ground there, unless we have weather like 2012, but tonight we have very small fields and only four horses in my three rated races, that have won on it before….and three of them go in the 9-10pm event. I myself will not be betting there but the figures are below for you to check out and do with as you see fit.

If the ground continues to dry out at the other tracks then simply leave it for another day. Yesterday, at Lingfield, you saw a perfect reason for my saying this. The ground went officially firm and a horse I had top rated CANDOLUMINESCENCE, was given the tenderest of rides, and quite rightly so, when it was realised she simply wasn’t enjoying things James Doyle rode her to finish sound, as opposed to jarring her up.

Assumptions:

BATH – Flat (Updated:11/07/2013 at 06:31:03)
Going
Firm
(GoingStick: 11.2 on Monday at 08:00)

Stalls
5f & 5.5f Centre

Weather
Forecast: Warm with sunny spells, max temp 22C.

DONCASTER – Flat (Updated:11/07/2013 at 07:17:08)
Going
Good to Firm,
Watered
(GoingStick: 9.6 on Thursday at 07:00)

Stalls
Round Course: Inside

Rails
Rail out on the Round Course from the 1m2f start to the home
straight.

Weather
Dry Monday with temp high +21.
Tuesday- Dry with temp high +26.
Wednesday- Dry overcast temp high +18.
Forecast
Thursday- Dry with temp high of +21.

Watering
10mm applied to the Straight course Sunday
10mm applied to the round course Monday
12mm of water applied to the straight course Tuesday
15mm of water applied to the round course Wednesday

EPSOM DOWNS – Flat (Updated:11/07/2013 at 06:40:26)
Going
Good to Firm, Good in places
(GoingStick: 8.4 on Wednesday at 12:00)

Stalls
6f – Outside

Rails
Rail out from 1m to Winning Post – up to 8 yards from 1m to 6f,
then out 3 yards from 6f to Winning Post – adding 11 yards to
race distances of over 6f.

Weather
Dry overnight and sunny and warm day expected after a cloudy
start – 23/24 degrees.

Watering
2.5mm applied to Home Straight and first 2 furlongs of Back
Straight early Thursday morning.

NEWMARKET – Flat (Updated:11/07/2013 at 07:32:48)
Going
Good to Firm (Watered)
(GoingStick: 7.9 (Stand Side 7.9; Centre 7.8; Far Side 7.7) on
Wednesday at 16:00)

Stalls
Stand Side Course

Weather
Dry, warm and sunny for the remainder of the week.

Watering
12mm of irrigation applied to the course on Monday. A further
12mm of irrigation applied on Wednesday.

WARWICK – Flat (Updated:11/07/2013 at 07:05:56)
Going
Good to Firm (Watered)
(GoingStick: 8.1 on Tuesday at 08:00)

Stalls
All Races – Inside

Weather
Forecast: Morning cloud clearing for a warm and sunny afternoon.
Temperatures highs of 18-22c.

Watering
10mm applied to whole course over Sunday/Monday.
8-10mm applied to whole course over Tuesday/Wednesday.

* indicates horse having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses perceived as being best drawn

NEWMARKET 5-00

§*LAST SOVEREIGN….+16
*FRATELLINO….+9
§*DOCTOR PARKES….+6
*BOSUN BREESE….+3
*ROCKET ROB….+2
§*REBECCA ROMERO….-4
*MY SON MAX….-7
BADDILINI….-14
§MIDNIGHT RIDER….-18
§APPOINTEE….-26
AVON BREEZE….-29

THREE TO DUTCH – LAST SOVEREIGN, DOCTOR PARKES, REBECCA ROMERO
20/80 – LAST SOVEREIGN
EXOTICS – LAST SOVEREIGN, DOCTOR PARKES, REBECCA ROMERO
LAY – AVON BREEZE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Middle slightly favoured.

ADVICE – Three in my top six having achieved §* so they seem to be the sensible play here.

DONCASTER 2-00

ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE….+10
§*PTOLEMY….+8
*VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR….-8
§*IMPERATOR AUGUSTUS….-10
*BARNEY MCGREW….-15
*WHO’S SHIRL….-21
§*BAYLEYF….-25
*GOLD BEAU….-27
CLUMBER PLACE….-32
DARKSIDE….-40
§EVERVESCENT….-40
FAME AGAIN….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE, PTOLEMY, IMPERATOR AUGUSTUS
20/80 – PTOLEMY
EXOTICS – ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE, PTOLEMY, IMPERATOR AUGUSTUS
LAY – DARKSIDE, FAME AGAIN
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High preferred to middle, over low.

ADVICE – Only two in my top six drawn where I want them and good to go on good to firm, so I’ll take a flier with my top rated and lob him into the dutch with that pair but, the single play goes to the highest rated of the pair marked §*

DONCASTER 3-40

*HEKAAYAAT….+9
*SIMPLY SHINING….-7
*SPAVENTO….-8
*ODDYSEY….-17
*CERTRAL….-17
*LADY OF THE HOUSE….-21

ADVICE – Just a straight win my top one and an exotic my top pair.

DONCASTER 4-15

MASQUERADING….+11
*RENEW….+9
*DARK DUNE….-6
*REVE DE NUIT….-12
*SIR BOSS….-14
ROYAL PECULIAR….-24
WADI AL HATTAWI….-26

ADVICE – I have absolutely no idea how good my bottom rated horse might be and with just one juvenile run to work off you have to treat any figure for such a horse with caution. My top rated is running for a stable out of form and, has yet to win on ground this quick but my second highest rated, who is equally unexposed, has that * sited next to his name. I will just have a straight win play the Botti beast.

DONCASTER 4-50

*NAFA….+11
§*SLEEPY BLUE OCEAN….+11
*LADY ROYALE….+9
*DIMAN WATERS….+9
*ELAND ALLY….+6
§*MEY BLOSSOM….+5
§*CHUNKY DIAMOND….-9
MONUMENTAL MAN….-19
*MERCERS ROW….-20
§FLIRTINASKIRT….-27
I’LL BE GOOD….-35

THREE TO DUTCH – NAFA, SLEEPY BLUE OCEAN, MEY BLOSSOM
20/80 – SLEEPY BLUE OCEAN
EXOTICS – NAFA, SLEEPY BLUE OCEAN, MEY BLOSSOM
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Seeing high just about best but not a lot in it.

ADVICE – I would, normally, suggest laying CHUNKY DIAMOND but, having had a wind operation he has recaptured some form, is draw spot on, goes on the ground and I have him just outside my top six so no, I’ll not lay him. If he gets stuffed I’ll kick myself for lacking bottle but only if my dutch fails!

WARWICK 3-30

*SWENDAB….-10
*TIDAL’S BABY….-10
*WE HAVE A DREAM….-13
JARROW….-21
*MOUNT HOLLOW….-25
GENERALYSE….-27
JOHN COFFEY….-32
FIRMDECISIONS….-37

ADVICE – My top two front the tissue and I’m happy to have them running for me. Dutch, straight win SWENDAB, exotic. WE HAVE A DREAM in for a tricast….low staking though, none of this lot is famous for being ultra consistent.

EPSOM 7-20

*UPPERCUT….+5
*YOJIMBO….-1
*COPPERWOOD….-3
*STARWATCH….-3
HIGHLAND DUKE….-11
*KAMCHATKA….-15
*ERTIKAAN….-25
YOUNG DOTTIE….-40

ADVICE – Wouldn’t you just love to won one like COPPERWOOD. Top three for all bets…dutch, 20/80 the top one and exotics, to low staking all round.

EPSOM 7-55

*NAVE….+11
*COLINCA’S LAD….+10
*GOLD MINE….+9
*MIGHTY CLARETS….-14
BALADY….-28
TINGO IN THE TALE….-30
PALOMA’S PRINCE….-31

ADVICE – The winner is in the top three or it’s back to school for me! Straight win my top one and top two for exotics.

EPSOM 8-55

*PUTIN….-24
*PERFECT PASTIME….-26
AYE AYE DIGBY….-33
WHERE’S REILEY….-34
BALDEMAR….-40
LANGLEY VALE….-40
FREDDY WITH A Y….-40
SCHOOL FEES….-40

ADVICE – This has all the punting appeal of a plate of larks livers. It has come out totally skewed but i’ve double checked everything. If you punt this light candles and cross everything. I’ll abstain.

BATH 6-40

RED CURRENT….-11
GLENS WOBBLY….-22
NICKY NUTJOB….-36
SPEED STEED….-37
FUSCHINO….-39
NUMEN….-40

BATH 8-10

*HAWAIIAN FREEZE….+2
TARO TYWOD….-9
EDGEWORTH….-12
MULLINS WAY….-17
SANTADELACRUZE….-22
RAPID WATER….-34
ST IGNATIUS….-40
ENDURA….-40

BATH 9-10

*KYLLACHY STORM….+9
BILASH….-5
*COMPTONSPIRIT….-7
*THE NAME IS FRANK….-9
HAMIS AL BIN….-16
VOLCANIC DUST….-16
SAMBA NIGHT….-25
ATHWAAB….-32
APLHA DELTA WHISKY….-33

ADVICE – I’ll not touch the first two here using stolen money but here, if you really cannot resist, try a dutch the three marked *

OF INTEREST

ASTAIRE (Newmarket 2-10) – 20/80
ORIEL (Newmarket 3-50) – straight win
MONTIRIDGE (Newmarket 4-25) – straight win (evens or better)
FINESSE (Warwick 2-55) – straight win

Have a great day and the very best of luck

Kindest regards

Ron

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