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Today’s Ratings and Advice 05/07/13

When I had finished compiling my figures yesterday my thoughts were with those that would be punting my top rated horses only. We had several races I would not (could not), trust and only a couple of races I felt I myself could punt with confidence, the Haydock 4-20 and the Epsom 7-45. I have been providing those members that have kindly registered for our free daily Newsletter with one race per day and, obviously, I am going to try and point them at a winner because we would like them to join you. I gave them that 4-20 race and, for the third successive day, they achieved a profit.

We have only been sending the new Newsletter out for three days so a 100% strike rate thus far. Obviously I’ll probably need to do a lot better than that over a month or so but, it’s a start.

The top rated horses at Epsom had, on the book, little chance of success but if one had obliged then a profit was looking assured for the day. So close, too. I thought Honourable Knight ran a blinder in the first, beaten around a length @ 33/1….55 on Betfair. Amadeus Wolfe Tone finished fourth and then Spirit Of Sharjah was probably an unlucky loser when finishing third @ 25/1. Obviously if you are playing 20/80’s then you will have made a nice return of the place odds on two of those. Nordic Quest then of course ran third in the finale….13/2….behind the horse I explained was the reason I myself would simply watch….how did they allow Court Pastoral to go off 4/1?

Earlier in the day we saw another top rated horse finishing third at 25/1, Strike Force at Yarmouth…..the top three in that race being the first three home. Sir Geoffrey had earlier been a nice 12/1 winner in my dutch there and so again, happy enough with that.

Haydock started well, King Kurt providing me with a winning dutch and a profit and that 4-20 was everything I thought it would be…well, nearly, my top three 1st, 2nd and 4th so not quite “right”.

The suggested laying again of Mutafaakir proved spot on for the second time in a week and with Ardmay a non-runner in the last race Mont Ras came into my bets and I enjoyed a nice winning dutch and the exotics. My “top” three finished 5th, 2nd and 1st in that one so again, very close to a full house.

Today is another very busy, very long one for me. I have five meetings to work with today and six meetings to prep up for tomorrow….no wonder I’m finding absolutely no time to get onto the Forum!

Assumptions:

*indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses perceived as being best drawn

SANDOWN 2-20

§*JOE PACKET….+9
§*EFFIE B….+9
*EDGE CLOSER….+8
*NAABEGHA….+8
*LUPO D’ORO….+8
§*PABUSAR….+3
*GLADIATRIX….+3
§*TAAJUB….-1
§*DOCTOR PARKES….-4
DUNGANNON….-4
*STEPS….-13
*RYLEE MOOCH….-15
FAIR VALUE….-22
KYLEAKIN LASS….-27
FREDDY WITH A Y….-34

THREE TO DUTCH – JOE PACKET, EFFIE B, PABUSAR
20/80 – JOE PACKET
EXOTICS – JOE PACKET, EFFIE B, PABUSAR
LAY – GLADIATRIX
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low favoured

ADVICE – Three in my top six having §* and they will do for me. GLADIATRIX is only just a lay and should one of my top six come out then he’s not. Whilst I have six I prefer though, he’s spotted up.

SANDOWN 4-35

TIGHT LIPPED….+6
*CARAZAM….+2
PILGRIMS REST….-7
*AL SAHAM….-9
CASHPOINT….-19
CODE OF HONOUR….-26
MAWAAKEF….-34
MUSHAAKIS….-38
BENZANNO….-40
JAKE’S DESTINY….-40

ADVICE – Only a brace of these has won previously on the going as currently described. With an unexposed three year old heading the morning tissue I’m inclined to think this is one for watching only.

SANDOWN 5-05

BOLIVIA….+12
*AUSTRALIA DAY….+6
*DUNHOY….-4
*SABORIDO….-10
*GOOD EVANS….-12
AULD ALLIANCE….-16
ABUNDANTLY….-17
PRIORS GOLD….-21
BALLINDERRY BOY….-24
SERGEANT ABLETT….-25
ALBONNY….-27

ADVICE – Again we have unexposed three year olds messing with our minds and another is a short priced favourite to succeed here. It’s not rocket science coming to the conclusion that Sir Michael Stoute’s AULD ALLIANCE is a good few lbs better than we’ve seen so far and this is another I’ll just watch. We have plenty more races to work with, that I do feel comfortable punting.

DONCASTER 3-35

*OTTO THE GREAT….+10
*CREEK FALCON….+3
EMKANAAT….-3
*SHOWBOATING….-5
FILS ANGES….-12
GLEN MOSS….-19
DEFENDANT….-25
HADAJ….-29

ADVICE – Yet another Sir Michael Stoute curve ball being thrown at me in the shape of DEFENDANT. If I play it will just be a top two dutch and that’s it.

DONCASTER 4-10

LITTLE DUTCH GIRL….+12
*FERSAH….+8
*BOLLIN GRETA….-1
*COSMIC HALO….-3
*LOOKS LIKE RAIN….-8
HEPWORTH….-9
RUASHAN….-15
CONTROVERSY….-15

ADVICE – An easy decision to make here. No bet. We have three three year olds coming into this race with just seven races between them to date and yet another Sir Michael Stoute short priced favourite, RAUSHAN, having just two runs on the board.

DONCASTER 4-45

*MANKINI….-1
*SPIEKEROOG….-5
BADEA….-10
MISTER CARTER….-17
BOBS HER UNCLE….-29
MUZHIL….-34
MOROCCO….-35
THE LODGE ROAD….-40

ADVICE – If my top rated cannot win this then Luca has a problem! Straight win bet.

DONCASTER 5-15

§*SUNNY SIDE UP….+9
*MEY BLOSSOM….+8
§*PASSIONADA….+2
*MINALISA….-1
§*SULIS MINERVA….-3
DREAMING OF RUBIES….-11
§CINCINNATI KIT….-19
*CRIMSON QUEEN….-20
CATS EYES….-22
PHOENIX CLUBS….-36

THREE TO DUTCH – SUNNY SIDE UP, PASSIONADA, SULIS MINERVA
20/80 – SUNNY SIDE UP
EXOTICS – SUNNY SIDE UP, PASSIONADA, SULIS MINERVA
LAY – CRIMSON QUEEN
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High just preferred.

ADVICE – Three in my top six §* so I’m not going to look anywhere else for my play. My suggested lay has the ground right, the trip right but is drawn low….slightly hampered there I reckon. In the last two season he has won two on the bounce and laying is dangerous but hey, let’s live on the edge!

WARWICK 4-20

AMBER HEIGHTS….+8
*BELLE BAYARDO….-6
*EMERALD GIRL….-18
*VOLITO….-19
*RUTTERKIN….-25
SOLE DANSER….-35
STORM LIGHTNING….-36
FARMERS DREAM….-38

ADVICE – I’ll just tinker with my top pair – it’s a bog awful race and it’ll be only pennies that are parted with.

WARWICK 4-55

INTO THE WIND….+10
SAINGLEND….+8
FALCUN….-10
WORLD MAP….-20
BOOGIE DE BISPO….-24
MISS TIGER LILY….-33
*ROYAL DEFENCE….-35
BLACKSTONE VEGAS….-38
BLEWIT….-39
MR VENDMAN….-40
CHAPTER FIVE….-40
STAR HILL….-40
DANISA….-40
MARIET….-40

ADVICE – Horrible. My top one is a CD winner so I’ll have a small 20/80 but nowt else.

BEVERLEY 7-30

*COPPERWOOD….+14
§ALTHAROOS….+12
*SHADOWTIME….+10
§*MUJAADEL….+9
*POLISH WORLD….+9
§*MUFTARRES….+9
ADIATOR….-3
*BLUE MAISEY….-8
§*DECENT FELLA….-10
RICH FOREVER….-13
§CLUBLAND….-18
READY….-18
KUWAIT STAR….-20
REX ROMANORUM….-23

THREE TO DUTCH – ALTHAROOS, MUJAADEL, MUFTAARES
20/80 – ALTHAAROOS
EXOTICS – ALTHAROOS, MUJAADEL, MUFTAARES
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High just preferred in this one.

ADVICE – Sir Michael seems to be unleashing three year old hell across the country today and here I’m with him. My second highest rated is one of a trio of three year olds running against their elders and I’ll trust this previous CD winer to repeat the dose.

BEVERLEY 8-30

§*BONDI BEACH BOY….+13
*LITTLE JIMMY ODSOX….+9
*CHOC’A’MOCA….+9
*PAVERS STAR….+8
*BALTIC BOMBER….+8
TUIBAMA….+1
*IVESTAR….-2
*ARCH WALKER….-3
§*RIO’S GIRL….-9
*LADY KILDARE….-9
ONE KOOL DUDE….-13
§DOLLY DIVA….-14
*PISTE….-17
§ACE MASTER….-23
§INGENTI….-31
HEADSTIGHT….-38
§PULL THE PIN….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – BONDI BEACH BOY, LITTLE JIMMY ODSOX, CHOC’A’MOCA
20/80 – BONDI BEACH BOY
EXOTICS – BONDI BEACH BOY, LITTLE JIMMY ODSOX, CHOC’A’MOCA
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low preferred here.

ADVICE – My top one has absolutely everything I’m looking for so he’s the one horse I will be concentrating on.

BEVERLEY 9-00

BAVARIAN NORDIC….+10
*DEAN IARRACHT….+8
*CROFTAMIE….-6
VALENTINE’S GIFT….-13
RUBY GLASS….-23
CHANKILLO….-28
SWIFT ENCOUNTER….-29
QUEEN OF EPIRUS….-31
TORERO….-33
BLUE TOP….-40
GRAMMAR….-40
LACEY….-40

ADVICE – I will just play my second highest rated to a 20/80 and leave the rest. Not a great end to the evening!

HAYDOCK 7-45

FORGET ME NOT LANE….+8
*SEMEEN….+/-0
*ENGLISH SUMMER….-9
ZAFISIO….-11
*CONTINUUM….-18
ALL ANNALENA….-20
*DANCING PRIMO….-21
*FLYING POWER….-25
CHANCERY….-26
THE LOCK MASTER….-27
MASTERS BLAZING….-34

ADVICE – Conundrum. I know how good David O’Meara thinks CHANCERY is but until he produces it on the track, he’s not on my mind. CONTINUUM looks the part and is bound to improve on my figure, having only three runs to date for me to work off. The common sense play right now is SEMEEN and I will just have a small straight win bet that one.

OF INTEREST

VAN DER NEER (Sandown 4-00) – 20/80
TAWTHEEQ (Doncaster 2-00) – straight win
SPLIT ROCK (Beverley 7-00) – straight win

BET OF THE DAY

BONDI BEACH BOY – Back down in grade, perfect draw, track and trip right – I reckon they’ll need a sniper to keep him out of the first four home – 20/80

LAY OF THE DAY

None today

Have a brilliant day and best of luck!

Kindest regards

Ron

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