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Today’s Ratings and Advice 02/07/13

July has started as June finished, top rated winners putting you ahead of the layers already, if that’s how you play the figures. Two winners from the five races produced yesterday and with both punted to win on the Exchanges, TALENT SCOUT 6/1 > 7/2 and EVANGELIST 9/4 > 7/4, those involved in shifting those markets had a healthy enough profit come close of play.

I’m not sure how sustainable this is but for sure, the current profit to Betfair SP is impressive and should enable those having achieved it to stay ahead of the layers should we hit a dry spell.

Today another three meetings to work with and hopefully we’ll keep things rolling along.

Assumptions:

BATH – Flat (Updated:02/07/2013 at 06:32:01)
Going
Firm
Dry overnight
(GoingStick: 9.0 on Friday at 11:00)

Stalls
5f & 5.5f Centre

Weather
Forecast: Light rain (2-3mm) from the afternoon onwards.

BRIGHTON – Flat (Updated:02/07/2013 at 06:57:29)
Going
Good to Firm, Good in places – Watered
(GoingStick: 8.0 on Tuesday at 06:45)

Stalls
5f,6f,7f Inside, 1m Centre, 1m2f & 1m4f Outside.

Rails
Rail will be dolled out from 6f to 2.5f by 4yds adding 12 yds to
distances.

Weather
Forecast: Sunny spells first thing then clouding over mid
morning.

Other
Roadworks on A23 coming into Brighton likely to cause minor
delays.

HAMILTON PARK – Flat (Updated:02/07/2013 at 06:53:13)
Going
Good, Good to Firm in places
(GoingStick: 8.9 on Monday at 08:45)

Stalls
2yrs 6F & 1M 4f – Standside

Rails
Due to the position of the rail on the loop, all races
over distances further than 6F shall be approx 25yds
shorter than the official measurements for this meeting.

Weather
0.1mm rain overnight. Dry and overcast early on Tuesday.
Forecast is light patchy rain from mid-morning with some
heavier spells possible during the afternoon (3-5mm).
Max temp 13C.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses perceived as best drawn

HAMILTON 3-30

*WADACRE SARKO….+11
SCHMOOZE….+9
*PERTUIS….-6
*LOCHEIL….-7
*BRIGADOON….-14
GRANDILOQUENT….-25
ALEKSANDAR….-32
RED EYES….-35

ADVICE – Mark Johnston saddles the only three year old in this contest and, it tops my figures. Mindful of his liking for getting stuck into the older horses in these all aged handicaps following Royal Ascot, i’m happy enough to work with my figures. The dutch will be the top three, it’s a straight win play my top one and exotics. I will have a lay ALEKSANDAR, too.

HAMILTON 5-00

§DIMAN WATERS….+13
§*SALVATORE FURY….+10
*IMPERIAL LEGEND….+9
ECONOMIC CRISIS….+8
§*DISTANT SUN….+8
CAPTAIN SCOOBY….+2
*SANDWITH….+/-0
*CAYMAN FOX….-2
*BONDI BEACH BOY….-10

THREE TO DUTCH – DIMAN WATERS, SALVATORE FURY, IMPERIAL LEGEND
20/80 – SALVATORE FURY
EXOTICS – DIMAN WATERS, SALVATORE FURY, IMPERIAL LEGEND
LAY – BONDI BEACH BOY
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Middle just preferred to low/high

ADVICE – What a little cracker of a race this is! If I have read the draw correctly then I’m hoping for a big run from my single play but the bias is negligible really and anything could win from anywhere. Looking forward to this one.

HAMILTON 5-30

§SINAI….+11
*AYASHA….+10
§HAB REEH….+8
DON’T TELL….+8
*INSOLENCEOFOFFICE….+8
*ROCK CANYON….+1
§SECRET ADVICE….+/-0
*MANDALAY KING….-4
*BUSY BIMBO….-5
*NEEDY MCCREDIE….-10
MONEL….-17
§DURHAM EXPRESS….-26

THREE TO DUTCH – SINAI, AYASHA, HAB REEH
20/80 – SINAI
EXOTICS – SINAI, AYASHA, HAB REEH
LAY – MONEL
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High look best placed over low, middle just off them

ADVICE – This might be low grade but it reads like a really competitive race. I have nothing having achieved §* so, I’m simply going to trust to my figures and cross the lot.

BRIGHTON 2-45

§DELPHICA….+15
*RIDGEWAY SAPPHIRE….+10
SWEET TALKING GUY….+5
§*TOOLEY WOODS….+3
§EXCELLENT AIM….+3
SURREY DREAM….-3
SLATEY HEN….-6
§MIAKORA….-12
RENOIR’S LADY….-16
§BOBBYOW….-22
SAKHEE’S ALROUND….-28

THREE TO DUTCH – DELPHICA, RIDGEWAY SAPPHIRE, TOOLEY WOODS
20/80 – RIDGEWAY SAPPHIRE
EXOTICS – DELPHICA, RIDGEWAY SAPPHIRE, TOOLEY WOODS
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Tight but just favouring middle.

ADVICE – I have a handicap debutante sitting third best and given its level of form I can only suggest you monitor the market. Right now I’ll play as indicated, to October Rules level of staking.

BRIGHTON 3-45

*BEACON LADY….+11
TATTING….+10
*ERMYNTRUDE….+9
*BENANDONNER….-2
*LIGHTNING SPIRIT….-2
LADY BARASTAR….-15
YOUNG JACKIE….-24
KEYHOLE KATE….-38
LINDSAY’S DREAM….-40

ADVICE – Not a race I myself will get overly involved in but my top rated looks set fair to run a big race and it’ll be a straight win punt. Rated horses 1, 3 and 4 dutched, to pay for that and any exotics I feel worth setting up.

BRIGHTON 4-45

*DECENT FELLA….+1
*MY LEARNED FRIEND….-7
AQUA ARDENS….-7
*FAIRY MIST….-8
*JONNIE SKULL….-13
SAINT IRENE….-21
EXCEEDEXPECTATIONS….-28

ADVICE – Another I’ll be playing to pennies. Straight win my top one, top two dutch and an exotic.

BATH 7-00

NATEEJA….+4
ZENAFIRE….-1
MOANING BUTCHER….-10
ESHTYAAQ….-16
MR BLUE NOSE….-27
DEFICIT….-28
FUSCHINO….-36

ADVICE – You punt this only if you require medical help. It’s a maiden handicap and I have only produced figures for it because that’s what i do here.

BATH 7-30

DUKE OF PERTH….+15
PERFECT CRACKER….-7
SANDY’S ROW….-10
APRIL CIEL….-15
STIFF UPPER LIP….-19
WILFRED PICKLES….-26
HONEY OF A KITTEN….-29
CIO CIO SAN….-34
FLYING TRADER….-37

ADVICE – Not a single one of this lot has won on firm ground, which is what they’ll get tonight. Simple choice….top rated straight win or, just watch.

BATH 8-30

*DOUBLE STAR….+12
§THE GREAT GABRIAL….-2
§BUDS BRUVVER….-4
§POETRY WRITER….-14
§CLASSIC VOICE….-18
EBONY SONG….-18
DEVON DIVA….-20
THE BAY BANDIT….-21
§PERFECT OUTLOOK….-27
COMPTON BIRD….-32
SONNETATION….-37
OFFBEAT SAFARIS….-40
OUR GOLDEN GIRL….-40

ADVICE – My top rated is the only runner here having previously won on firm. He is miles clear on my figures, drawn “second best” in middle and it’s a straight win play.

BATH 9-00

*CARA GINA….+11
*COMPTONSPIRIT….-4
*BEST BE CAREFUL….-9
MY OWN WAY HOME….-13
NIGHT TRADE….-23
MANDY LEXI….-39

ADVICE – It is either going to be like shelling peas here tonight or the punters are in for some shocks! I cannot ever advocate punting odds on in a handicap but if anyone goes evens, I’ll play up some of the earlier wings….should there be any!

OF INTEREST

None today

No bet or lay of the day either, I’m afraid. It’s poor stuff today and I suggest we keep those kegs of powder dry for when we get some decent racing.

Have a brilliant day and the very best of luck if you are punting

Kindest regards

Ron

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