I had a gut feeling HEROSTATUS was going to run a decent race in that marathon and in he whizzed at 10/1….keep a close eye on anything that Jason Ward sends out, I sense we may be paying this guy a visit in the very near future.
I have another five weeks before I produce figures for 3-y-o only handicaps but that last race at Pontefract yesterday proved already that I’m on the right lines. the first two home in my top four, both having that * next to their names (the only two in that race to do so) and it augurs well.
Today we have a meeting to attend so apologies for this arriving a tad late but I have had to do everything in one hit again – no second Newsletter containing the evening figures.
CHEPSTOW – Flat (Updated:24/06/2013 at 06:56:56)
Good to Firm, Good in places
Dry on Sunday and overnight
2mm of rain Saturday
(GoingStick: 9.0 on Monday at 06:30)
Straight Course (5f – 1m) Centre
Forecast: Mainly dry with sunny spells, max temp 18C.
THIRSK – Flat (Updated:24/06/2013 at 06:36:38)
Good, Good to Soft in Places
Straight Course – Stands’Side
13mm rain since midday Sunday. Cloudy but dry day forecast.
WINDSOR – Flat (Updated:24/06/2013 at 07:17:55)
Going Stick reading to follow later.
Centre:- 1m 2f abt 7yds and 1m 3f abt 135yds.
Inner of Straight dolled out 17yds at 6f and 8yds at the Winning
Post. Top bend dolled out 11yds from normal inner configuration,
adding 45yds to race distances of 1m+
3.6mm rainfall (Saturday)
0.8mm rainfall yesterday (Sunday)
Monday:- dry with sunny intervals 18c.
5mm of irrigation applied Friday.
* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses perceived as being best drawn
*HONEY OF A KITTEN….-26
ADVICE – Not a nice way to start the days punting. Only one a previous winner on genuine good ground, a relatively unexposed one 5th best rated, the tissue favourite (2nd highest rated), looking best going right handed, although limited evidence given he’s only gone the other way once (unplaced) and it just feels “messy”.
I will probably just run up an October rules play to kick off proceedings.
§JACK MY BOY….-26
THREE TO DUTCH – DREAM CATCHER, KYLLACHY STORM, NIGHT TRADE
20/80 – DREAM CATCHER
EXOTICS – DREAM CATCHER, KYLLACHY STORM, NIGHT TRADE
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low/high preferred to middle.
ADVICE – I have run with the three in my top six looking best drawn and ground right.
ADVICE – It’s looking like another October Rules play but the 20/80 will go to GRIFFIN POINT, who has §* sited next to his name, the only runner in the field obtaining both. The draw bias is not that bad in truth, i just would not want to be drawn 8, 9 or 10 for win purposes.
*HIP HIP HOORAY….-2
*IF I WERE A BOY….-11
ADVICE – Yet another to October Rules levels of staking but the horses I’ll work with are those rated 1, 3 and 5. My 20/80 goes to HIP HIP HOORAY by virtue of her having that good ground win to her name but it’s not a race I’d be considering for anything other than a loose change punt.
§THE LODGE ROAD….-40
§QUEEN OF EPIRUS….-40
ADVICE I will not be punting this race due to the presence of GUNBOAT. Making it’s handicap debut this evening I have absolutely no idea how good, bad or indifferent he is but at this level and with Ed Dunlop having send him on a 368 mile round trip, you have to think there is a scent of rat in the air. If you opt to work with my figures, consider candles having been lit.
*BEAT THE SHOWER….-2
ADVICE – A marathon in which my 5th best rated, who won recently on handicap debut, and was punted like a goodun to do so. David O’Meara saddles ESTEMAALA, who has just three runs on the board and whilst disappointing to date, you don’t want to be writing her off just yet.
Two choice…well, three….you check the market and if the tissue favourite is punted again, you join in, October Rules or, a 20/80 BEAT THE SHOWER, for interest.
THREE TO DUTCH – PARAMOUR, LOLITA LEBRON, STEEL STOCKHOLDER
20/80 – PARAMOUR
EXOTICS – PARAMOUR, LOLITA LEBRON, STEEL STOCKHOLDER
LAY – EWELL PLACE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low for me.
ADVICE – My top one has placed on good, won on quicker and slower and is best going left handed, which he does tonight.
My third highest rated has never won over further than six furlongs and that’s why he’s dropped.
HAZZA THE JAZZA….-31
THREE TO DUTCH – MCGONAGLE, CAPTAIN ROYALE, ICEBLAST
20/80 – ICEBLAST
EXOTICS – MCGONAGLE, CPATAIN ROYALE, ICEBLAST
LAY – CHOC’A’MOCA
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High over low with middle anchored.
ADVICE – What a way to finish…a 20 runner Class 6 Handicap. I’m happy with my figures and will simply trust them allied to going/draw preferences.
SULTANAH HEYAM (Chepstow 3-00) – 20/80
MESSILA STAR (Windsor 7-40) – straight win
NOBLE DEED (Windsor 8-10) – straight win
BET OF THE DAY
Not a single one of my top rated screams “banker” and I’ll again run with an OF INTEREST horse
MESSILA STAR (Windsor 7-40) – I expect Ryan Moore to ride a few winners tonight but this looks the best of his ride. He has ridden 13 horses for Jeremy Noseda at this venue and won on five of them. Stepping up in trip tonight having won over seven furlongs on sand last time up (cosy win), Ryan will hopefully squeeze improvement from him – straight win
LAY OF THE DAY –
Have a great day and the very best of luck!