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Today’s Ratings and Advice 08/06/13

This is an incredibly busy weekend of racing and apologies if this is going out a little later than usual….you will see exactly why, below!

Again several of the top rated horses came agonisingly close yesterday:

2nd 7/1
2nd 7/2
3rd 11/4

Whilst winners in the dutch included:

HIGHLAND COLORI 11/2 > 4/1
WHO’S SHIRL 10/1
HAAJES 7/1

It really is recommended that however you choose to play, whichever horses you choose to work with,that you incorporate a dutch, if only for insurance purposes. Finding the winners of some of the double field handicaps, which is what we are trying to do, is very much needle in a haystack stuff.

Today is going to be extremely difficult. We have no less than 19 races to work with and I’ve gone gozzy working on them! I was here until just turned 11-00pm last night prepping this lot, then non stop from 5-00am this morning….let’s all hope the effort was worthwhile.

Assumptions:

BEVERLEY – Flat (Updated:08/06/2013 at 07:21:17)
Going
Good to Firm (Watered)
(GoingStick: 9.0 on Saturday at 07:00)
Stalls
Inside (all races)
Rails
The rail around the bottom bend has been moved out to provide
better ground, increasing all distances on the round course by
18yds.
Weather
Dry overnight
Saturday – Warm and sunny, 21C
Watering
Track has been watered since Wednesday, and was completed in the
early hours of this morning.
CATTERICK BRIDGE – Flat (Updated:08/06/2013 at 07:00:41)
Going
Good to Firm (Watered)
Stalls
7f & 2m – Centre
Weather
Dry overnight
Forecast: A dry, warm day with sunny spells, 19C
Watering
Watered – 10mm applied Tuesday/Wednesday
Further 10mm applied Thursday/Friday
CHESTER – Flat (Updated:08/06/2013 at 06:20:27)
Going
Good, Good to Firm in places (Watered)
(GoingStick: 7.5 on Friday at 15:30)
Stalls
1m 2f – Outside, All other races – Inside
Rails
The rail has been moved back to the very inside, meaning all
race distances will be as advertised.
Weather
Dry overnight. Dry and sunny day ahead, max daytime temp of
21c.
Watering
5mm applied to entire course on Tuesday, 5mm applied on
Thursday. Further 3mm applied on Friday.
HAYDOCK PARK – Flat (Updated:08/06/2013 at 07:07:29)
Going
Good to Firm (Watered)
(GoingStick: 8.4 on Saturday at 07:00)
Stalls
Centre: 5f, 6f, 1m2f, 1m4f.
Rails
All races will run over the Stand Side Home Straight.
Actual race distances: 5f, 6f, 7f 57yds, 1m 2f 152yds, 1m 4f
37yds, 2m 108yds
Weather
Warm and dry forecast (max temp 23 deg C).
Watering
30mm of irrigation onto track over past week.
NEWBURY – Flat (Updated:08/06/2013 at 07:37:39)
Going
Good to Firm (Watered)
(GoingStick: 7.2 on Friday at 16:15)
Stalls
Straight course – Stand Rail
Rails
Rail has been moved back in on the round course from the 8f to
5f all round races will be 9m longer.
The straight course far rail from the 5f has been moved out 4m
with a cut off at two and a half furlongs so as to rest ground
for later in the season.
Weather
We have had some light rain in the last 24hrs.
Forecast: Saturday Cloudy start with sunny spells later max 21.
NEWMARKET – Flat (Updated:08/06/2013 at 07:57:43)
Going
Good to Firm, Good in places (Watered)
(GoingStick: 7.8 on Saturday at 07:30)
Stalls
Far Side Course
Rails
The re-positioning of the bend into the home straight has
increased the distance of the 10f, 12f & 14f+ races by 18m.
Weather
Cloud clearing this morning to leave a dry and sunny afternoon
18C.
Watering
5mm applied to the course after racing on Friday.

· *indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
· § indicates horses I perceive as having the best of the draw

HAYDOCK 2-05

*BROCKWELL….+11
*LADY KASHAAN….+9
*CASTILO DEL DIABLO….+/-0
*SUN CENTRAL….-4
PALAZZO BIANCO….-9
*APACHE….-11
*DAZINSKI….-12
BODY LANGUAGE….-14
BEYOND CONCEIT….-20
DE RIGEUR….-27
ORIENTAL FOX….-32
THEOLOGY….-36
TAPPANAPPA….-37
KIAMA BAY….-40
MUNTASIR….-50

ADVICE – As with all such races I simply work to October Rules and have done with it.

NEWMARKET 2-20

NABUCCO….-1
HALFSIN….-7
*ASSIZES….-16
*INVISIBLE HUNTER….-16
*BEAUFORT TWELVE….-20
EHTEDAAM….-30
*BASSETERRE….-32
NICEOFYOUTOTELLME….-36
STATUS SYMBOL….-40

ADVICE – Not a fan of this race at all. My 7th best owes me but it’ll not be today I go chasing those losses.
Rated horses 1 & 6 are relatively unexposed and they front the tissue. Neither has, so far, run on ground as quick as they find it today so, who knows what is going to happen?
For punting purposes I’m just going to have a very small 20/80 HALFSIN. Trip, track, ground all good and, he’s a double figure price. A loss wont make much of a dent in the bank because staking levels will certainly reflect my dislike of this one.

NEWMARKET 2-55

VALBCHEK….+12
§*NOCTURN….+10
*HEAVY METAL….+10
*ENROL….+10
§*SECRET WITNESS….+9
§*CHEWOREE….+8
*GATEPOST….+8
§*ZERO MONEY….+3
*SUMMERINTHECITY….-2
*JOHANNES….-9
*DOCTOR PARKES….-17
*MEZZOTINT….-17
§GRAMERCY….-26
*WHOZTHECAT….-27
INTRANSIGENT….-35

THREE TO DUTCH – NOCTURN, SECRET WITNESS, CHEWOREE
20/80 – NOCTURN
EXOTICS – NOCTURN, SECRET WITNESS, CHEWOREE
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low best with high preferred to middle.

ADVICE – A proper race and superbly competitive. My figures suggest Noseda has this bang to rights, his pair topping my figures but it’s NOCTURN that gets the call. My top rated has arguably in the worst of the draw and it’s his first run for an epoch, having also suffered the “unkindest cut”.
I’ve plucked another pair from those drawn where I want them, and in my top six rated, for my own bets here but NOCTURN is the one I fancy a lot.

NEWMARKET 3-30

*ANGEL GABRIAL….+9
*NO HERETIC….-5
*HANDSOME MAN….-11
*HIGHLAND CASTLE….-11
*VASILY….-19
GABRIAL THE GREAT….-21
*SOLARAS EXHIBITION….-25
PARLOUR GAMES….-36
SUEGIOO….-40
SIGNED UP….-40
RAWAKI….-40

ADVICE – My top three will do for all bets and if the winner is elsewhere, I’m stuffed. Dutch, 20/80 ANGEL GABRIAL and exotics that trio….if the outlay is worth the potential dividend.

NEWMARKET 5-15

*MICA MIKA….-1
*GABRIAL’S KING….-5
MARIA’S CHOICE….-7
TEAK….-13
PORCINI….-17
TAGLIATELLE….-25
DARK RANGER….-29
KANGAROO COURT….-31

ADVICE – Not a one of these has won over this trip on the flat….bit of a funky one though, isn’t it.
With the short priced favourite third best on my numbers and, with my top tow having at least won on this type of ground, I’ll just set up a dutch that pairing.

CHESTER 2-45

*MEANDMYSHADOW….+16
§*NOVERRE TO GO….+10
*BUBBLY BALLERINA….+9
*LUCKY DAN….+9
*CHOOSEDAY….+8
§*ROKER PARK….+6
§*CHESTER ARISTOCRAT….-3
§*LUCKY NUMBERS….-3
*LEXI’S HERO….-6
*BALTY BOYS….-7
§*PICTURE DEALER….-11
*ELUSIVE HAWK….-13
*MOUNT HOLLOW….-20
*TYFOS….-21
AL’S MEMORY….-23
§TANGO SKY….-32

THREE TO DUTCH – NOVERRE TO GO, BUBBLY BALLERINA, ROKER PARK
20/80 – NOVERRE TO GO
EXOTICS – NOVERRE TO GO, BUBBLY BALLERINA, ROKER PARK
LAY – PICTURE DEALER
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low over middle, over high.

ADVICE – Another “proper” race. Love these. My top rated has everything but the draw in his favour and if he can win from 13, I’ll send Dale Swift a “Well Done” card.
NOVERRE TO GO has raced here once before and disappointed. I will take a chance that was just an off day and work with him as he’s got a lovely draw if Steve Drowne can take advantage of it.
BUBBLY BALLERINA has won here before and whilst that 8 draw is an issue, she’s better drawn than most in my top six and long with ROKER PARK, who we could have had a free lease on this season, she is in my dutch.
Three of these are well drawn with no going issues, including the one I’m laying….scary, eh!

CHESTER 3-20

§*CALAF….+18
§FORGOTTEN HERO….+17
*AN CAT DUBH….+14
§*AREA FIFTY ONE….-5
*KAY GEE BE….-10
GREELEYS LOVE….-13
*PROMPTER….-19
FENNELL BAY….-22
*BALDUCCI….-23
§SPIFER….-25
HAYLAMAN….-26
§TOTO SKYLLACHY….-28
MESPONE….-31

THREE TO DUTCH – CALAF, AN CAT DUBH, AREA FIFTY ONE
20/80 – AREA FIFTY ONE
EXOTICS – CALAF, AN CAT DUBH, AREA FIFTY ONE,
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low, over middle, over high

ADVICE – Another crackerjack of a race. I was tempted not to rated it because we have a 3-y-o propping up the weights but whilst most certainly considered a fly in the ointment, he’s not got the best of draws and, he is starting to look difficult to win with.
My three selected will do for me and it’s simply a common sense play going solo with AREA FIFTY ONE.

CHESTER 3-55

ISDAAL….+3
OUR PHYLLI VERA….-3
STAR LAHIB….-13
*DANCING PRIMO….-19
PANDORICA….-27
SAINT HELENA….-36
PRINCESS CAETANI….-38
AMOYA….-40

ADVICE – Another I do not like one jot. Only one has winning form on genuine good ground and I make it most definitely an October Rules or nowt sort of race.

CHESTER 4-30

*DOCOFTHEBAY….+21
§BEST TRIP….+16
SAM NOMBULIST….+15
*KINGSCROFT….+10
§*AL KHAN….+8
*VERSE OF LOVE….-1
§FREE SPIN….-2
§*AL MUHEER….-7
*ALEJANDRO….-8
*LIGHT FROM MARS….-12
§MODERN TUTOR….-18
*HARRISON GEORGE….-25
§SPRINGINMYSTEP….-28
*TELLOVOI….-30
ALBAQAA….-36
§FROG HOLLOW….-37
MUSIC IN THE RAIN….-38

THREE TO DUTCH – BEST TRIP, AL KHAN, VERSE OF LOVE
20/80 – AL KHAN
EXOTICS – BEST TRIP, AL KHAN, VERSE OF LOVE
LAY – MODERN TUTOR
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low, over middle, over high

ADVICE – This looks absolutely impossible. I can find more reasons to get each horse here beaten, than I can find for them winning. I have effectively drawn three from my top six that I hope will perform and with just AL KHAN having what I’m looking for in terms of draw/going, he’s the 20/80 but I couldn’t tell you for sure what’s going to happen here.

CHESTER 5-40

§*ASKAUD….+12
*LOLITA LEBRON….+10
§*SILVAS ROMANA….-7
§DUTCH MISTRESS….-9
IT’S MY TIME….-10
*PORTRUSH STORM….-10
*HOPPY’S FLYER….-11
§FINESSE….-16
REMIX….-20
STELLAR EXPRESS….-28

ADVICE – I will just take my top three against the field and summon up another October Rules type play.

BEVERLEY 2-35

§*DIAMOND BLUE….+9
§*BLACK ANNIS BOWER….+9
§*PASSIONADA….+5
§ELUSIVE BONUS….-1
§DREAMING OF RUBIES….-9
*COMPTONSPIRIT….-12
GOWANHARRY….-14
§NEEDY MCCREDIE….-18
CATS EYES….-25

THREE TO DUTCH – DIAMOND BLUE, BLACK ANIS BOWER, PASSIONADA
20/80 – DIAMOND BLUE
EXOICS – DIAMOND BLUE, BLACK ANNIS BOWER, PASSIONADA
LAY – GOWANHARRY
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – I’m thinking those drawn 1, 2 and 3 might struggle, even in such a small field.

ADVICE – I am thinking the tissue favourite is better on slower ground and, she’s drawn3….we’ll see if I’m right.
This might be the only time in my life I want to end up BLACK and BLUE….top three for my bets.

BEVERLEY 4-20

*COPPERWOOD….+4
LAST DESTINATION….-3
*ROCKWEILLER….-11
*SIR GEORGE….-15
SAVE THE BEES….-18
PIVOTMAN….-22
EASTWARD HO….-28
JOYFUL SOUND….-36
DISTRICT ATTORNEY….-37
FIREFLY….-40

ADVICE – Three of my top four have that * assigned to them and they will carry my shekels. Dutch, exotics and a 209/80 COPPERWOOD

BEVERLEY 5-30

*APACHE GLORY….+11
LADY MACDUFF….+11
*TRIBAL MYTH….+8
SAINT THOMAS….+4
*CHRISTAMS LIGHT….-7
*TRIPLE EIGHT….-7
GOING GREY….-9
DREAM WALKER….-12
RED SHUTTLE….-20

ADVICE – APACHE GLORY, TRIBAL MYTH and CHRISTMAS LIGHT for all bets, which will not exactly break my bank! It’ll be punted exactly like that previous race.

CATTERICK 3-35

*SMALLJOHN….+14
*ROBERT THE PAINTER….+9
*ORPSIE BOY….+8
*ORBIT THE MOON….+1
*WEST LEAKE HARE….+/-0
EWELL PLACE….-1
FAYR FALL….-4
*MAJESTIC DREAM….-14
*DECENT FELLA….-15
*HOLY ANGEL….-17
*HIERARCH….-25

ADVICE – Again, no ghost hunting here…top three punted in exactly the same fashion as the 4-20 and 5-30 at Beverley.

CATTERICK 4-10

*ABLE MASTER….+10
*POWERFUL PRESENCE….+8
CLOCKMAKER….-6
SOLAR SPIRIT….-8
SANDY LANE….-9
*NOBLE CITIZEN….-10
*GREEN PARK….-12
*POSTSCRIPT….-15

ADVICE – My figures tell me this nice prize is going back to Helmsley…which on e though?…figures say ABLE MASTER so, I’ll run with it. Top two dutch, 20/80 ABLE MASTER and an exotic. CLOCKMAKER for a tricasts, if greed kicks in.

CATTERICK 4-45

SPIEKROOG….+9
*ZAPLAMATION….+4
*BIJOU DAN….-6
*STRIKEMASTER….-7
*DUBARA REEF….-12
*AMIR PASHA….-17
*JEU DE ROSEAU….-21
*LA BACOUETTEUSE….-29
NASHVILLE….-30
MISS MACNAMARA….-38
COWSLIP….-40
BANDANAMAN….-40
SHEILA’S CASTLE….-40

ADVICE – Awful stuff. I’ll just play my top three marked * to October Rules and walk away.

CATTERICK 5-20

*RIO COBOLO….+11
*KUANYAO….+10
§SEE CLEARLY….+9
*LAYLA’S HERO….+8
*BALTIC BOMBER….+8
MUTAFAAKIR….+/-0
*DORBACK….-10
BLUE SHOES….-17
§RYLEE MOOCH….-22
§GUNG HO JACK….-25
HENRY BEE….-30
§SUNRISE DANCE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – KUANYO, SEE CLEARLY, LAYLA’S HERO
20/80 – SEE CLEARLY
EXOTICS – KUANYO, SEE CLEARLY, LAYLA’S HERO
LAY – DORBACK
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low preferred to high, middle squeezed out.

ADVICE – Another I’m seeing as a bit all over the place, the best drawn horses, bar one, not looking good enough.
I will dutch those selected and have a 20/80 my best drawn but it’s not a race I myself will be heavily involved in.

NEWBURY 7-30

*REE’S RASCAL….+11
*LORD OF THE SHADOWS….+8
NET WHIZZ….-6
SCOTTISH GLEN….-15
*YOJIMBO….-16
*STARWATCH….-23
ORTAC ROCK….-23
ERTIKAAN….-25
NAZREEF….-33
ORDERS FROM ROME….-37

ADVICE – My top pair will do here…dutch, 20/80 REE’S RASCAL and an exotic….NET WHIZZ in for a tricast.

NEWBURY 8-30

PASSION PLAY….-17
*KITTENS….-23
*VENIR ROUGE….-23
ADMIRABLE DUQUE….-33
ESHTYAAQ….-37
DOUBLE CEE….-40
GRAMS AND OUNCES….-40
MINORITY INTEREST….-40
HONOURABLE KNIGHT….-40
GINGER FIZZ….-40

ADVICE – If we are all looking to get out here, may the force be with us! An awful end to the days racing and I myself will decide closer to the time it if warrants an October Rules play or my just pouring a single malt and letting it wash over me.

OF INTEREST

SRINIGAR GIRL (Newbury 6-30) – 20/80
AMONTILLADO (Newbury 7-00) – 20/80
ANJAAL (Beverley 2-00) – straight win
MAXENTIUS (Beverley 3-45) – straight win
G M HOPKINS (Newmarket 1-45) – 20/80
RUFFLED (Newmarket 4-05) – 20/80
AMBIVALENT (Haydock 2-40) – straight win

BET OF THE DAY

SMALLJOHN (Catterick 3-35) – looks a rock solid 20/80. Trip and ground spot on and jockey (great to see Justin back and riding winners), having a 3-5 strike rate for Bryan Smart at this track, he’ll do for today.

LAY OF THE DAY

None today

That lot should keep you busy!

Have a brilliant day and, be lucky!!

Kindest regards

Ron

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