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Today’s Ratings and Advice 07/06/13

One of the reasons I was Notebook in hand for that Newmarket 8-30 last night was because Fallon was stopping off for one ride, TESTUDO, a son of Duke Of Marmalade. He certainly did the family proud, winning by a very cosy neck and everything I’ve seen this season regarding the family suggests to me 500 Club members will have a good 2013/2014 season, with Maquesa Naranja.

A frustrating day though for those members punting the top rated horses:

2nd 33/1 > 25/1
3rd 16/1 > 14/1
2nd 8/1
2nd 5/2
4th 12/1
4th 12/1
3rd 5/4

….but for those dutching, not so bad at all, DHHAMAAN, also the 20/80, winning 22/1 > 16/1.

We have swings….and we have roundabouts.

Today is ultra busy so I’ll crack on….

Assumptions:

BATH – Flat (Updated:06/06/2013 at 10:04:17)
Going
Firm
(GoingStick: 9.5 on Thursday at 09:30)

Stalls
5f & 5.5f Centre

Rails
Far bend positioned 3-4yds off inside adding approximately 10yds
to races of 1mile and further (same position as all previous 2013
meetings).

Weather
Forecast: Staying dry and sunny, max temp 21C.

HAYDOCK PARK – Flat (Updated:06/06/2013 at 08:01:47)
Going
Good to Firm (Watering)
(GoingStick: 8.2 on Thursday at 07:30)

Stalls
Centre: 5f, 6f, 1m2f, & 1m4f

Rails
All races will run over the Inner Home Straight, except for the
6f Maiden, which will run over the Stand Side Home Straight.
Actual race distances: 5f, 6f, 7f 215yds, 1m 2f 90yds, 1m 3f
195yds

Weather
Warm (max temp 22 deg C) with diminishing chance of local
thundery showers at end of week.

Watering
Put 8mm of irrigation onto track on each of Monday, Tuesday and
Wednesday. Watering further 5mm on Thursday.

LINGFIELD PARK – Flat (Updated:07/06/2013 at 06:33:46)
Going
Turf Straight Course: Good to Firm (Watered)
AWT: Standard
(GoingStick: 8.7 on Thursday at 16:00)

Stalls
Turf: Stands Side

Rails
Stands Side rail will be moved in 3 metres reducing the safety
factor to 15 on the straight course.

Weather
Dry overnight
Forecast:
Friday – Dry and sunny, 18C

Watering
Wednesday May 5th – 5mm water applied
Thursday May 6th – 5mm water applied

Other
Clerk of the Course: Neil Mackenzie Ross (07917 326977)

NEWMARKET – Flat (Updated:06/06/2013 at 07:52:21)
Going
Good to Firm, Good in places (Watering)
(GoingStick: 7.7 on Wednesday at 08:00)

Stalls
Far Side Course

Rails
The first meeting of 2013 on the July Course.

Weather
Mainly dry, pleasantly warm and with sunny spells for the next
three days.

Watering
8mm applied to the course on Tuesday. A further 8mm of
irrigation to be applied to the course on Thursday.

PONTEFRACT – Flat (Updated:06/06/2013 at 15:53:08)
Going
Good, Good to Firm in places
(GoingStick: 7.7 on Wednesday at 16:30)

Stalls
Inside all races.

Rails
The rail has been moved out from the 6f marker to the winning
post to give fresh ground.
This has added approx 16yds to all races.

Weather
15mm rain last Thursday.
It’s been dry and sunny but with very light winds.
Wednesday was overcast and dull.
Thursday is dry, warm and sunny and the forecast for Friday
is to be the same.

Watering
We watered on Monday (7mm), Wednesday (between 7mm and 10mm)
and again on Thursday (5mm to 7mm).

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses I perceive as best drawn.

NEWMARKET 3-45

LAFFAN….+13
§*HIGHLAND COLORI….+10
*JOHHNY CASTLE….+9
*PRINCESS OF ORANGE….+8
§*ALBAQAA….+8
§ELUSIVE FLAME….+2
*KAKATOSI….+/-0
§*FAST FINIAN….-1
*COMMON TOUCH….-2
*SHOWBOATING….-2
FORCEFUL APPEAL….-8
TOP OFFER….-17
§AXIOM….-23
EMKANAAT….-29
BORN TO SURPRISE….-30

THREE TO DUTCH – HIGHLAND COLORI, JOHNNY CASTLE, ALBAQAA
20/80 – HIGHLAND COLORI
EXOTICS – HIGHLAND COLORI, JOHNNY CASTLE, ALBAQAA
LAY – TOP OFFER
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Middle look to hold sway but nothing at all between low/high for “second” spot.

ADVICE – TOP OFFER, my suggested lay, was fancied to win a 2000Gns not so long ago but obviously something went wrong. He has not been seen for 372 days, has suffered the “snip” and now runs in a Class 3 Handicap. If Roger Charlton has got him right, then he wins this pulling the proverbial caravan, doesn’t he? If I am wrong I lose but you must do what you think best. That’s exactly what I am doing.

NEWMARKET 5-30

*CURLY COME HOME….+6
*EMMAN BEE….-3
*GRAND LIAISON….-13
*LACONICOS….-14
ON MY OWN….-15
MCBIRNEY….-20
MANKINI….-20
WARDEN BOND….-20

ADVICE – MANKINI makes his handicap debut as a four year old and has obviously been difficult to keep sound. He has also suffered the snip and in all honesty, I have no idea how good or otherwise, he is. I will just work my top three to October Rules and if he wins, I’ll be just buttons down.

BATH 3-00

SPANISH PLUME….+3
GLENS WOBBLY….-2
HIGHLIFE DANCER….-7
YOUM JAMIL….-13
ICEMAN GEORGE….-16
ICE TREES….-16
GLADSTONE….-20
PERFECT OUTLOOK….-28

ADVICE – You know all is well with the going when you read Bath is riding firm. however, here we have eight horses that have never won on going that fast and for me it’s a no bet race. Those punting my top rated should be ok if he handles it….but will he?

BATH 5-45

*AMBER HEIGHTS….+11
§CHESTER’SLITTLEGEM….+9
*BABY QUEEN….+6
WOODEN KING….+/-0
MOLLY JONES….+/-0
§FATHOM FIVE….-9
§SWENDAB….-12
NOVABRIDGE….-14
POWERFUL WIND….-19
DANZIGER….-25
§GAELIC WIZARD….-32

ADVICE – My top rated has won here, won on firm and the only bet I will consider is a 20/80 AMBER HEIGHTS.

LINGFIELD 3-20

*THE MONGOOSE….+7
*COMADOIR….-3
BINT ALZAIN….-13
FLAVIUS VICTOR….-18
*WISHFORMORE….-21
HOMEARD STRUT….-21
JOHNNY SPLASH….-23
SURREY DREAM….-37

ADVICE – I always think of seven furlongs as being a bit of a specialists trip. My top rated has what look to be ideal conditions…quickish ground over that seven furlongs. Top two dutch, straight win THE MONGOOSE and an exotic….I’ll stop at that.

LINGFIELD 3-55

*MEMPHIS MAN….+9
*LEADENHALL LASS….+2
*JONNIE SKULL….-1
*DVINSKY….-7
*TAKITWO….-10
*DARNATHEAN….-11
HAWK MOTH….-14
WASPY….-36
PHAROAH JAKE….-40
ROOKNPASPBERRYRIPPLE….-40

ADVICE – It’s the second leg of that one above and every bit as poor. If Milton Bradley can rekindle the flame that once burned (ok, flickered), within MEMPHIS MAN, he has a squeak but no more than that. October Rules and cross the lot.

OF INTEREST

BLAZING KNIGHT (Lingfield 2-50) – straight win
CHORAL RHYTHM (Bath 5-15) – 20/80
IHTIMAL (Newmarket 2-10) – straight win
FLEDGED (Newmarket 3-10) – 20/80

HAYDOCK 8-15

JIROFT….+13
§*EXCELETTE….+10
§*SECRET ASSET….+9
*MY PROPELLER….+7
*FREE ZONE….+6
*NOCTURNAL AFFAIR….-4
MEDICEAN MAN….-5
JWALA….-7
§MISS LAHAR….-8
DOC HAY….-13
§SWAN SONG….-13

ADVICE – As I say, not a race I would normally be producing figures for but how I work does, when applied, transfer across to non-handicaps. My top rated is arguably poorly drawn, even in such a small field. I’m favouring middle over high, over low. My top rated has never won away from San Siro but is a pretty speedy sort, as demonstrated recently at Epsom. To date he has shown a marked preference for give in the ground, three of his last four wins coming on heavy, soft and good to soft….having also won on genuine good ground though and never having seen anything quicker, it’s hard to know whether it will suit or not. He has been versatile to date, though. What we also know is, he is now with a trainer genuinely brilliant with sprinters.
I myself, having now spent time on this, will have a two horse dutch, EXCELETTE and SECRET ASSET, with a 20/80 EXCELETTE….who won this race last season.

PONTEFRACT 7-05

*ORSIPPUS….+8
*MAID OF MEFT….-9
*EAGLE ROCK….-9
*DANVILLA….-10
MINISTEROFINTERIOR….-11
*OUR FOLLY….-15
*RIPTIDE….-15
MOJOLIKA….-18
MR CRYSTAL….-19
VIMIERO….-24
COME HERE YEW….-28
BRASSINGAMAN ERIC….-30
SCRIBE….-33

ADVICE – A marathon run on a course that seriously is stiff and takes some getting! For the last six furlongs you are basically running up a hill and a + for my top rated is that he has won here, over further, on soft, a year ago. For me though, it’s never more than an October Rules level of stake being passed across the counter and here it’s my top three charged with obtaining me a profit.

PONTEFRACT 7-35

§*MAYAASEM….+9
*LASTCHANCELUCAS….+8
§*HOOFALONG….+7
§RENE MATHIS….+4
§CAN YOU CONGA….+/-0
§BLUEGRASS BLUES….-4
§LINE OF REASON….-6
ELLE WOODS….-6
§BACHOTHEQUE….-6
FUNDING DEFICIT….-17
§PIPERS NOTE….-22

THREE TO DUTCH – MAYAASEM, HOOFALONG, RENE MATHIS
20/80 – MAYAASEM
EXOTICS – MAYAASEM
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – I simply do not want to be drawn 9, 10 or 11….anywhere else, just fine.

ADVICE – With my second highest rated drawn right where I do not want to be, he’s dropped….next three in the pecking order will suffice for all bets on what is another race I would not normally work on, being it’s a 3-y-o only handicap….at least one of our members is going racing here tonight and I just thought I’d try to help!

PONTEFRACT 8-05

DUKE OF PERTH….+10
*MAD JAZZ….+7
*MARHABA MALAYEEN….+5
*ROYAL SKIES….-4
ORIONS HERO….-6
CHEVALGRIS….-13
SURROUND SOUND….-16
MYSTICAL MAN….-18
STRAWBERRY JAM….-30

ADVICE – This was another race I received a request to rate. Principle reason being, Fallon has suggested his best chance of a winner this week is DUKE OF PERTH. Sits top, he’s missing rides in later races at Newmarket (probably MANKINI being one), to come up here and whilst several of these are open to plenty of improvement and if you accept my top rated is a winner without a penalty…as has been suggested….he might be one to go to war with….buyer beware though,

PONTEFRACT 8-40

DARTRIX….+11
*WHO’S SHIRL….+9
*HELLO STRANGER….-3
§*BECKERMET….-8
*ALBERT TATLOCK….-10
BUNCE….-13
§*ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE….-13
§*MANDALAY PRINCE….-13
§RIO COBOLO….-15
CONSISTANT….-20
§STRONG MAN….-23
SUNRAIDER….-26
MCGONAGLE….-30
POWERFUL PIERRE….-30
RUST….-40
MR MAN IN THE MOON….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – WHO’S SHIRL, HELLO STRANGER, BECKERMET
20/80 – BECKERMET
EXOTICS – WHO’S SHIRL, HELLO STRANGER, BECKERMET
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Middle over high/low.

ADVICE – I thought I would be able to read a genuine draw bias here but looking at how I think this will be run I’m only marginally favouring middle….6-12….in search of my winner. My top rated has placed on two of his six starts on ground quicker than good to soft but both wins to date have come on good to soft.
I’ve opted to run with three in my top four all having winning form on ground that will probably get quicker during the day and plucked from that trio BECKERMET, who has what I feel will prove the best of the draw.

PONTEFRACT 9-10

§*COMMANCHE RAIDER….+10
SPYKES BAY….+9
§*HAAJES….+4
*RED CAPE….-1
*PHOENIX CLUBS….-4
§*IMPERIAL LEGEND….-9
*MR MO JO….-9
*MEY BLOSSOM….-15
*INGENTI….-15
§LORD BUFFHEAD….-15
*BRONZE BEAU….-17
EL MCGLYNN….-19

THREE TO DUTCH – COMMANCHE RAIDER, HAAJES, IMPERIAL LEGEND
20/80 – COMMANCHE RAIDER
EXOTICS – COMMANCHE RAIDER, HAAJES, IMPERIAL LEGEND
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low look best over middle with high having much leg work to do.

ADVICE – I have selected three from my top six drawn where I want them and having all having won previously on the going as currently described. SPYKES BAY winked at me the minute I opened my papers and books this morning. Only the draw puts me off including him.

OF INTEREST

KHALICE (Pontefract 6-35) – 20/80
TICKING KATIE (Haydock 7-15) – 20/80
CAPTAIN WHOOSH (Haydock 7-45) – 20/80

Have a brilliant day and the very best of luck if you get involved

Kindest regards

Ron

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