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Today’s Ratings and Advice 29/05/13

I was more than happy with how the figures performed yesterday. Not so happy with the lack of an accurate going description from Leicester, as the ground eased more than punters were being told, though.

Shortly before the 3-30 race Mark Johnston was interviewed on TV and it was suggested the ground would no longer suit his runner, BOUNTY HUNTER. He kinda half laughed and said, “well, they are still calling it good ground so, we’ll take our chance”, whilst agreeing ease in the ground would be a detriment to his horses chances. The horse finished tailed off, they interviewed a mud spattered Paul Hanagan, who rode the winner, who advised, almost sheepishly, “it’s at least good to soft, possibly soft, very hard work”.

I genuinely need to know…from a CoC, why they cannot just come out with the truth about underfoot conditions.

After that race, four horses were withdrawn from the last two races, because of unsuitable ground. There was 28 lengths between first and last in the six furlong 4-30 race and, 62 lengths between first and last in that now nine runner race at 5-00pm.

In the last race on the card, I had suggested BIRDY BOY was OF INTEREST. Not on that ground he wasn’t. That was Div.2 of the race in which 62 lengths separated first from last….here it was 72 and BIRDY BOY was tailed off.

I hope you took note of the comments regarding SWENDAB and his need for good to firm? On the changed ground he had to be a lay.

Whatever I send out each day you have to be very aware…changed ground = bin figures.

Today we have just a couple of meetings to look at and a paltry three races to work with.

Assumptions:

* indicates horse having won previously on the going as currently described

NOTTINGHAM 2-30

*DANCING MAITE….+/-0
AMBITIOUS ICARUS….-5
*FALASTEEN….-7
HAMIS AL BIN….-10
LORD BUFFHEAD….-11
POINT NORTH….-18
GABRIAL’S GIFT….-18
WHISKY BRAVO….-28
COMMON CENTS….-29
DANA’S PRESENT….-31
CONSISTANT….-31
BILASH….-39
TWO TURTLE DOVES….-39
CELTIC SIXPENCE….-40

ADVICE – We have two divisions of this race and they are quite simply chalk and cheese. I feel this race is simply all over the place and the only thing I find remotely interesting about it is that Danny tudhope comes here for one ride before belting back up to Beverley. he rides POINT NORTH. However, he has raced 12 times on turf and won just once, on soft….he has never even placed on anything quicker or slower.
My top rated has not won for over four years but has draw and ground right…he’s 4lb out of the handicap proper though and to call him a risky punt is like saying, “we’ll get Ahern to ride our hold up horse”.
Trip and ground are wrong for AMBITIOUS ICARUS although, he has won on one of his two visits here.
FALASTEEN has probably the worst of the draw….I’m seeing high best over middle, low third best spot to be drawn. Ground is right though and if this dodge pot decided it’s a going day, he’d be competitive.
HAMIS AL BIN….never placed on turf, never placed at this trip, what’s to like?….oh, he’s ridden by a jock that has been on two winners from 10 rides for the trainer here. Better drawn than his stable companion FALASTEEN but still a touch of divine intervention required.
LORD BUFFHEAD….drawn well, won at the trip but unplaced on anything faster than good to soft. If it eased then he’s interesting at a huge price.

A race I myself will swerve for punting purposes.

NOTTINGHAM 3-00

*BIG WAVE….+17
*INDEGO BLUES….+9
REGINALD CLAUDE….+8
*KINGS ‘N DREAMS….+8
*DIVERTIMENTI….+8
CLUBLAND….+2
*RULESN’REGULATIONS….-2
*QUASI CONGAREE….-2
PARISIAN PYRAMID….-7
QUALITY ART….-12
*HALF A CROWN….-20
COLOURBEARER….-20
LOYAL N TRUSTED….-24
KEY AMBITION….-29

THREE TO DUTCH – BIG WAVE, INDEGO BLUES, DIVERTIMENTI
20/80 – INDEGO BLUES
EXOTICS – BIG WAVE, INDEGO BLUES, DIVERTIMENTI
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Not much in it at all but high over middle over low.

ADVICE – I would have been all over BIG WAVE like a bad rash had he been drawn higher but I’m a little concerned about that draw. I still thing he’s primed to run a big race today.
I’ve run with INDEGO BLUES for the potential solo play as he has trip, ground and draw spot on.
I have to bring in DIVERTIMENTI because this is his stomping ground.

BEVERLEY 7-05

CLASSIC PUNCH….+17
CARRAGOLD….+11
WEST BRIT….+8
TARTAN GIGHA….+/-0
DEMOLITION….-2
THE LOCK MASTER….-11
THE TIDDLY TADPOLE….-11
GARDE COTIERE….-12
MOCCASIN….-17

THREE TO DUTCH – CLASSIC PUNCH, CARRAGOLD, WEST BRIT
20/80 – CLASSIC PUNCH
EXOTICS – CLASSIC PUNCH, CARRAGOLD, WEST BRIT
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – The reason Mr Tudhope is belting up from Nottingham is my top rated here, I’m sure. Top three for all bets.

OF INTEREST

DEFENDANT (Beverley 6-35) – straight win

BLOCKADE ( Beverley 7-35) – place only

MIRTH (Beverley 8-35) – 20/80

MUSHAAKIS (Beverley 9-05)

SEVEN OF CLUBS (Nottingham 2-00)

BOLD DUKE (Nottingham5-15)

Have a great day and the best of luck if you get involved

Kindest regards

Ron

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