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Today’s Ratings and Advice 27/05/13

Ron RobinsonI have mentioned several times that we have set up a page on Facebook that feeds through to Twitter and, whilst both places are frequented by some very sad, sick people both offer us a chance to communicate quickly with members who have accounts set up with one or both. I use them for nothing but introducing Post Racing to those as yet unaware of what we are trying to do here, in the hope they see our results and opt to join in. If you do not have an account with one or either, I strongly urge you to set one up so that you can have access to my “doodlings”.

After I had set up and sent out my Newsletters yesterday I cast an eye over the racing in Ireland. I spotted a 28 runner handicap and just felt an urge. It didn’t take very long at all to work out which had the most obvious chance, based on a draw bias very pronounced and I “rated” those horses. My figures suggested I could concentrate on two and I threw those names up on the Post Racing Facebook wall, which in turn fed them through to Twitter….which is then displayed on the Post Racing website.

The two horses were VIA BALLYCROY and LAKE GEORGE. The first named was the most obvious selection and duly obliged at 11/1 (much bigger was up on betfair) and LAKE GEORGE ran a huge race to finish 4th 16/1, beaten a length and bits. The best advice I can give is get a Facebook account set up and give Post Racing a “LIKE”….that will ensure you receive such scribblings in the future.

Today is a typical Bank Holiday Monday – plenty of racing, most mediocre but something has to win those races and hopefully my figures have found us enough of them to add to this months profits.

Assumptions:

CARLISLE – Flat (Updated:27/05/2013 at 07:23:41)
Going
Good to Firm
(GoingStick: 8.6 on Monday at 07:00)

Stalls
All on inside, with exception of 5f and 1m 4f outside

Weather
Dry o/night
Monday – Clouding over from 8am, light rain from mid morning
some poss. heavy later 11C.

Other
Sand slitting drainage work five/six furlong chute to
four furlong, due to cold spring, has been slow to recover.
CofC Andrew Tulloch 07831 315104
Hd Grdsman Thomas Wootten 07889 987542

Watering
The whole course was watered yesterday prevent ground
drying out further, and to ensure safe
ground if forecast rain does not arrive by racing.

Other
For going updates follow @AntheaMorsead on Twitter. Mobile
no: 07837 559861.

LEICESTER – Flat (Updated:27/05/2013 at 06:47:27)
Going
Good to Firm, Good in places (Watered)
(GoingStick: 9.0 on Monday at 06:30)

Stalls
Straight – Stands side. Round – Inside.

Rails
There is a false rail from the top of the hill on the back
straight all the way around the bend, this has increased all
the round course distances by 17m.

Weather
Dry overnight. Forecast: Monday dry and sunny max temp 18c.
Tuesday rain is due during the night and
may continue on and off during the day max temp 14c.

REDCAR – Flat (Updated:27/05/2013 at 07:05:18)
Going
Good, Good to Firm in Places
(GoingStick: 7.7 on Sunday at 08:00)

Stalls
Straight – Centre

Weather
3mm Rain overnight (Monday).
Dry and overcast week, much cooler and breezy on Wednesday.
1mm rain Wednesday night.
5mm rain Thursday night.
cold, damp and blustery on Friday. Dry overnight into
Saturday.
Saturday – Dry, bright and sunny – 16C.
Sunday – Dry, bright and sunny – 17C.
Bright and sunny start on Monday, but cloud and breeze
expected to increase as day passes, temp 16C. Similar for
Tuesday, but slightly cooler 12C.

Other
Clerk of the Course – Jonjo Sanderson 07766 022893
Track Manager – Steve Berry 07789 984520

WINDSOR – Flat (Updated:27/05/2013 at 07:29:44)
Going
Good, Good to Firm in places (Watered)
(GoingStick: 8.7 on Monday at 07:00)

Stalls
Centre:- 1m 2f abt 7yds and 1m 3f abt 135yds.

Rails
Inner of Straight dolled out 14yds at 6f and 7yds at the Winning
Post. Top bend dolled out 8yds from normal inner configuration,
adding 34yds to race distances of 1m+

Weather
Dry overnight.
Monday- Dry, bright and sunny 18c.

Watering
3-5mm of irrigation applied.

* indicates horses having won on the going as currently described.

REDCAR 4-00

GABRIAL THE GREAT….+11
*TORUK MACTO….+10
*ELTHEEB….+10
*CLON BRULEE….+9
*NO POPPY….+8
*JO’BURG….+3
*WAR POET….+1
*LAS VERGLAS STAR….-3
*FORT BELVEDERE….-6
WARLU WAY….-12
*SILVER LIME….-15
TAHAAMAH….-16
ESHTIBAAK….-20

THREE TO DUTCH – TORUK MACTO, ELTHEEB, CLON BRULEE
20/80 – TORUK MACTO
EXOTICS – TORUK MACTO, ELTHEEB, CLON BRULEE
LAY – ESHTIBAAK

ADVICE – My top rated is unplaced to date on anything quicker than soft so, unless the heavens open up he’s got a job on. My next three are all good to go on today’s genuine good ground, are in my top six, no draw bias to ponder and I’m very happy to work with them
I’m laying ESHTIBAAK despite him being lightly raced but wouldn’t describe him as a banker lay. The form of his last run looks solid after the one that beat him won again and he’s never been out of the frame going left handed so, a risky one….should be fun this race!

REDCAR 5-05

*AD VALUE….-11
*POLITBUREAU….-16
DR IRV….-20
*GOLDEN FUTURE….-24
BRASINGAMAN ERIC….-26
MADRASA….-30
AMIR PASHA….-31
*TURJUMAN….-34
KINGAROO….-38
AURA BORA….-40
SUMMERLEA….-40
BANDANAMAN….-40

ADVICE – Both legs of this contest are purely October Rules jobbies. Top three dutch, 20/80 my top one and exotics but all to the absolute minimum staking.

REDCAR 5-35

*DENISON FLYER….+7
*MEDIEVAL BISHOP….-1
DUBARA REEF….-2
RED TYKE….-2
*DIMASHQ….-7
GREEN TO GOLD….-8
LOOKS LIKE RAIN….-16
SALLY FRIDAY….-24
BAVARIAN NORDIC….-24
MISS MYSTYRIOUS….-32
*DAN’S HEIR….-35
TORERO….-38
PRINCEOFTHEDESERT….-40
KIAN’S JOY….-40

ADVICE – I refer you to the comments of that race for Yaks directly above.

WINDSOR 3-20

*JOCASTA DAWN….+9
*DIVINE CALL….+2
*THE TICHBORNE….+1
CHEWOREE….-7
*SIR PEDRO….-7
*ORDERS FROM ROME….-8
ARCTIC LYNX….-17
ASHPAN SAM….-22
TROPICS….-24
NOVELLEN LAD….-25
PEACE SEEKER….-29
TARTAN TRIP….-29

THREE TO DUTCH – JOCASTA DAWN, DIVINE CALL, THE TICHBORNE
20/80 – JOCASTA DAWN
EXOTICS – JOCASTA DAWN, DIVINE CALL, THE TICHBORNE
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High just preferred to low with middle just off them

ADVICE – My top two have draw and going perfect, trip right, my top rated a previous CD winner here and i’m more than happy to work with them. My fourth highest rated looks set to run a big race too and the overall feel here is that the figures are ok.

WINDSOR 3-55

*ONELADYOWNER….+10
*APOLLO D’NEGRO….+4
*SIGNOR SASSI….-1
*MY KINGDOM….-2
*NASRI….-4
*KING OF JAZZ….-6
*UPRISE….-12
LUPO D’ORO….-15
*ROCKET ROB….-15
PERFECT PASTIME….-21
TOJAN ROCKET….-27
DON LIBRE….-31

THREE TO DUTCH – ONELADYOWNER, MY KINGDOM, KING OF JAZZ
20/80 – MY KINGDOM
EXOTICS – ONELADYOWNER, MY KINGDOM, KING OF JAZZ
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Exactly as for that race above.

ADVICE – I’ve taken my top rated with my fourth and sixth because he’s clear on my figures and the other pair are where I want them drawn. ONELADYOWNER is “second best” drawn but with not a lot in it I’ll play as indicated. If APOLLO D’NEGRO beats them all it’ll be no shock and if he’s your pick run with it. Ground right but both turf wins have come at Folkestone.

WINDSOR 5-30

*SIOUXPERHERO….-14
COME ON BLUE CHIP….-19
*ROBIN HOOD….-23
TINSHU….-24
BREAK RANK….-26
LUCKY HENRY….-31
SHEILA’S BUDDY….-35
PRINCE OF BURMA….-39
ADIYNARA….-40
TOP DIKTAT….-40

ADVICE – The figures speak volumes here and they, plus the fact only two have previously managed a win on good ground, means this is right up there with that pair from Redcar. October Rules races for sure.

WINDSOR 6-00

*CHORAL FESTIVAL….-3
MAMA QUILLA….-7
RUNNING DEER….-11
THE BLUE DOG….-20
*OPERETTIST….-21
PANETTONE….-25
DANISA….-34

ADVICE – Another low rating event with just two having won previously on good ground. The winner is in my top three or I’ll leap off the Shard but as they front the tissue and comfortably top my ratings, I reckon I’m safe. I will just dutch my top pair and have the 20/80 CHORAL FESTIVAL, with an exotics.

CARLISLE 4-20

*STAFF SERGEANT….+10
*SOUND ADVICE….+5
*EXTRATERRESTRIAL….+2
*SOLAR SPIRIT….+/-0
*THE OSTEOPATH….-9
*ROCK SUPREME….-17
PACIFIC HEIGHTS….-24
CORAL SANDS….-24
SHADOWTIME….-32
LE CHAT D’OR….-35
BLING KING….-40
DOS AMIGOS….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – STAFF SERGEANT, SOUND ADVICE, EXTRATERRESTRIAL
20/80 – STAFF SERGEANT
EXOTICS – STAFF SERGEANT, SOUND ADVICE, EXTRATERRESTRIAL
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low best with middle high more or less the same chances.

ADVICE – Two of my top three are “right” concerning draw and ground, SOUND ADVICE not drawn so well but picking a third one for dutching was not easy here and I’ll squeeze the Dalgleish horse in for that bet.
My top rated looks set to run a big race and hopefully Graham Lee can get a similar tune out of him again. I am acutely aware his best form has come at Musselburgh though and that he bounced last season, following a win first time up.

CARLISLE 4-55

WATTS UP SON….+14
*CHOISAN….+1
*COSMIC SUN….-2
*FORGET ME NOT LANE….-8
*BRIGHT APPLAUSE….-12
DISCAY….-16
PARTY DOCTOR….-21
MUBROOK….-24
FLY SOLO….-29
LEROY PARKER….-34
MUHARRER….-35

THREE TO DUTCH – CHOISAN, COSMIC SUN, FORGET ME NOT LANE
20/80 – CHOISAN
EXOTICS – CHOISAN, COSMIC SUN, FORGET ME NOT LANE
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – I have to drop my top rated, despite his high figure, because all his winning has come on ground with juice in it. I’ll just work with the next three in the pecking order and hope the rains arrive late…because they are on their way.

CARLISLE 5-25

*SMALLJOHN….+9
*CIRCUITOUS….+9
LITTLE JIMMY ODSOX….-4
*CLUMBER PLACE….-5
*TED’S BROTHER….-6
*LAYLA’S HERO….-12
BUNCE….-22
FERDY….-24
*YOUHAVECONTROL….-24
MITCHUM….-32
DIALOGUE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – SMALLJOHN, CIRCUITOUS, CLUMBER PLACE
20/80 – SMALLJOHN
EXOTICS – SMALLJOHN, CIRCUITOUS, CLUMBER PLACE
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low martially favoured to high with middle squeezed out.

ADVICE – The top three marked * seem as good a way into this as any with all good to go on good and drawn where I fancy the winner will come from.

LEICESTER 3-35

*WEST END LAD….+10
*SCAMPERDALE….+8
GAELIC ICE….+7
*BOLD CROSS….+1
*CRAVAT….+/-0
SEHNSUCHT….-8
*DANDY….-10
RESET CITY….-16
CONDUCTING….-25
TOUGNESS DANON….-31
ROCK SONG….-40
CHASIN’ RAINBOWS….-40
BEAUMONT COOPER….-40
KEPT….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – WEST END LAD, SCAMPERDALE, BOLD CROSS
20/80 – WEST END LAD
EXOTICS – WEST END LAD, SCAMPERDALE, BOLD CROSS
LAY – DANDY
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – I want high drawn ahead of middle with low but a tad off them.

ADVICE – If GAELIC ICE wins I’ll not be surprised but I’ve selected the three in that top four marked * because all three have ground and draw right, even if that are limited in terms of ability (it’s Class 5, so that’s applied to all of them). I’m thinking DANDY was gifted his win last week and today has the worst of the draw as I’m seeing things. Staking will not be earth shattering but hopefully a stunning dividend is passed my way because, if I’ve got this right, it’s fillet tonight.

LEICESTER 4-05

*ALICE ROSE….-11
IT’S MY TIME….-17
AVAILABLE….-17
*AZZURRA DU CAPRIO….-23
MALEKAT JAMAL….-31
MODERN ROMANCE….-32
REMIX….-39

ADVICE – This has all the appeal of a bowl of that soup served up in Papillon. I can just see the faces on Steve McQueen and Dustin Hoffman now, if asked to pick one from that lot. First reaction was the tissue favourite (2nd highest rated), would win pulling a caravan but any horse that obviously has some ability, that has still not won after eight starts, that keeps finding a couple to good, has to be treated with caution. Gun to head, a top two dutch, 20/80 ALICE ROSE and exotics but you can imagine how many shekels will be passed across.

OF INTEREST

SECONDO (Leicester 2-25) – straight win
UMNEYATI (Leicester 4-40) – 20/80
PLAYBILL (Leicester 5-10) – 20/80
HANDIWORK (Redcar 2-50) – 20/80
TRINITY BOY (Windsor 2-45) – 20/80
CONSIGN (Windsor 5-00) – straight win

Have a great day and let’s hope Grandorio brings home the bacon!

Kindest regards

Ron

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