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Today’s Ratings and Advice 21/05/13

Working out what will be able to handle the ground and what wont is vital in the search for winners and I hope nobody went near the Redcar specialist BEDLOE’S ISLAND yesterday! He quite simply doesn’t handle ground with juice in it. It’s as important to have half decent figures to work with, too and they spoke volumes about the chances of PROOFREADER. The jockey booking would have also had you wincing slightly and that 7/4f had just one behind him crossing the line.

The figures for that race were stunning…top three first three home, including the 40/1 outsider, creating a 318/1 tricast for those that played the combo exotics. With just seven runners going to post as a result of withdrawals, it’s always worth a shilling.

Today is extremely busy with four meetings and my figures for tonights meeting at Pontefract will follow this tome!

Assumptions:

BRIGHTON – Flat (Updated:21/05/2013 at 06:53:56)
Going
GOOD TO FIRM – Watered
(GoingStick: 7.9 on Tuesday at 06:45)
Stalls
5f & 6f Inner, 7f & 1m Middle, 1m2f Outer.
Rails
Races to be run on the inner line.
Weather
Dry overnight.
Forecast: A dry day with sunny spells and windy. Wind dropping
later in the day.
Watering
Finishing the last bit of the watering cycle this morning then
no further watering.
Other
Several localised roadworks around Brighton making traffic
heavier on all routes, possibility of delays.
NEWCASTLE – Flat (Updated:21/05/2013 at 06:35:36)
Going
SOFT
Stalls
Straight course: Far side
Rails
Fresh ground to be provided after winning line & in back
straight.
Weather
8.2mm overnight. Remnants of Scottish thunder storms.
Total of 63mm (2.4 inches) of rain since last Weds.
Set dry & overcast today. 13c top temp.
NOTTINGHAM – Flat (Updated:21/05/2013 at 07:11:32)
Going
Good to Soft, Good in places
(GoingStick: 7.9 on Sunday at 07:30)
Stalls
5 & 6f – Stands side; 1m centre; remainder – inside
Weather
Dry overnight. Currently dry and overcast, expected to remain
similar throughout the day. Temperatures around 15C.
Other
Clerk of the Course – Jane Hedley: 07881 316027
PONTEFRACT – Flat (Updated:21/05/2013 at 06:45:40)
Going
Good
(GoingStick: 8.0 on Tuesday at 06:30)
Stalls
Inside all races.
Weather
1 mm rain overnight on Monday.
33 mm rain last week.
The forecast is for a cloudy, dull day with possible light
drizzle before sunny spells later this afternoon and into the
evening.
* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described.

NEWCASTLE 3-00

*LORD FRANKLIN….+6
TECTONIC….-8
ICEBLAST….-12
*PTOLOMEOS….-15
MADAME BLAVATSKY….-15
LAST DESTINATION….-16
NONAYNEVER….-17
DREAM WALKER….-21
GALILEE CHAPEL….-27
LOUKOUMI….-29
ROYAL HOLIDAY….-30
BLACKAMOOR HARRY….-33
TONY HOLLIS….-35
MA KELLYS….-37
WOLF HEART….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – LORD FRANKLIN, ICEBLAST, PTOLOMEOS
20/80 – LORD FRANKLIN
EXOTICS – LORD FRANKLIN, ICEBLAST, PTOLOMEOS
LAY – ROYAL HOLIDAY
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – LOW OVER MIDDLE WITH HIGH STRUGGLING.

ADVICE – Neither of the two divisions of this race will be punted wildly. They are very low grade affairs where much will depend on which fancies it today. Here it is simply a case of my believing the figures to be right, playing those having either winning form on the ground or having the best of the draw. Only my top rated has ticks in those boxes and a tiny 20/80 goes his way.

NEWCASTLE 3-30

*RASSELAS….+7
MAGGIE MEY….-2
*REMEMBER ROCKY….-5
SIR GEORGE….-8
*REGAL ACCLAIM….-11
GARZONI….-15
TUKITINYASOK….-24
THE BLUE BANANA….-25
DISTRICT ATTORNEY….-27
NAAFETHA….-28
JUPITER FIDIUS….-37
MONSIEUR PONTAVEN….-36
DOWNTOWN BOY….-37
TENACITY….-39
HEART BEAT SONG….-40
LIL SOPHELLA….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – RASSELAS, REMEMBER ROCKY, REGAL ACCLAIM
20/80 – RASSELAS
EXOTICS – RASSELAS, REMEMBER ROCKY, REGAL ACCLAIM
LAY – MONSIEUR PONTAVEN
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – EXACTLY AS FOR THE FIRST LEG….LOW OVER MIDDLE, HIGH HAVING A JOB ON.

ADVICE – I will be punting those selected for exactly the same reason given for that race directly above. It is also another low staking affair.

NEWCASTLE 4-30

*MEAN IT….+16
*JOSHUA THE FIRST….-2
TITUS BOLT….-3
I’M SUPER TOO….-5
TRIPLE EIGHT….-11
ARC LIGHT….-17
MOROCCO….-22
BLUE MAISEY….-28

ADVICE – Not a lot to worry about here if these figures are right. Straight win bet my top rated.

NEWCASTLE 5-00

NABURN….-8
MASKA PONY….-13
*KODICIL….-22
*AD VALUE….-23
*MERCHANT OF DUBAI….-25
MASON HINDMARSH….-25
JAN SMUTS….-27
BEAT THE SHOWER….-30
ROCK RELIEF….-34
STICKLEBACK….-35
LUCTOR EMERGO….-37
DAN’S HEIR….-40
TROPENFLEUR….-40
DESTINY AWAITS….-40
ALMOST GEMINI….-40
MISS MOHAWK….-40

ADVICE – Marathon that I’d rather watch than punt myself. I will probably concentrate my efforts on laying ALMOST GEMINI and JAN SMUTS.

NEWCASTLE 5-30

KINGSCROFT….+16
STEEL STOCKHOLDER….+9
WELL PAINTED….+8
GOURAY GIRL….+6
AMAZING AMORAY….+5
SAM NOMBULIST….-4
CHOOKIE ROYALE….-7
CHOOKIE AVON….-9
DIESCENTRIC….-10
XILERATOR….-16
SANDY LANE….-23
MYBOYALFIE….-30

THREE TO DUTCH – KINGSCROFT, GOURAY GIRL, SAM NOMBULIST
20/80 – KINGSCROFT
EXOTICS – KINGSCROFT, GOURAY GIRL, SAM NOMBULIST
LAY – SANDY LANE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – HIGH BEST, LOW WORST AND MIDDLE SO-SO.

ADVICE – The best race on this card by a mile but, not a single one has won previously on the going as it is at the time of writing and so, it’s pennies being punted.

NOTTINGHAM 3-20

ZAROSA….+17
ALBONNY….+16
ARASHI….+2
*MINISTEROFINTERIOR….-4
GENEROUS DREAM….-7
BEYEH….-8
PHANTOM RANCH….-14
COTTON KING….-17
WILY FOX….-17
QUEEN’S STAR….-18
CHAPTER FIVE….-22
JOE THE COAT….-28

ADVICE – This looks a half decent race on paper but again we have the ground a mystery for all bar one runner. Hopefully these rains disappear again and we can resume normal service….or is this once again, “normal service”? I will just watch….a no bet race for me.

NOTTINGHAM 5-50

*ALPHA DELTA WHISKY….+10
FALASTEEN….+8
QUALITY ART….+7
*DANZOE….+/-0
PASSIONADA….-3
ROYAL BAJAN….-10
*EL MCGLYNN….-10
SLEEPY BLUE OCEAN….-10
SHAWKANTANGO….-13
MONSIEUR JAMIE….-13
CHARMING….-20
MONNOYER….-22
IVESTAR….-23

THREE TO DUTCH – ALPHA DELTA WHISKY, FALASTEEN, PASSIONADA
20/80 – ALPHA DELTA WHISKY
EXOTICS – ALPHA DELTA WHISKY, FALASTEEN, PASSIONADA
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – LOW OVER MIDDLE, JUST, WITH HIGH STRUGGLING.

ADVICE – The top three in the handicap proper are the only previous winners on good to soft and one of them has a poor draw (DANZOE)….we’ll not be getting rich off this one and it’s another pennies for punting jobby.

BRIGHTON 3-10

*WOODEN KING….+12
*STONECRABSTOMORROW….+10
*RULESN’REGULATIONS….-2
*ABOVE THE STARS….-6
COMMANDINGPRESENCE….-10
PUTIN….-25
GUNG HO JACK….-38

ADVICE – This lot have been running against each other at Bath recently and I’ll just faff about with my top pair…dutch, 20/80 the top one and an exotic but stakes will barely register.

BRIGHTON 4-10

NAVE….-8
HIGHLAND DUKE….-13
PRESBURG….-18
*MEGALALA….-22
*SILVER ALLIANCE….-25
FINAL DELIVERY….-30

ADVICE – All together now, fingers down the throat and launch! I simply cannot bring myself to play here.

BRIGHTON 4-40

IRONS ON FIRE….+11
PEACE IN OUR TIME….+11
*MENADATI….+9
*BEACON LADY….+8
*HIGHLIFE DANCER….-1
*GREEN EARTH….-2
*REDOUTE STAR….-4
*ENTRANCE….-6
WHINGING WILLE….-7
HAVING A BALL….-15
*STRATEGIC ACTION….-20
FINDOLEX….-23
BESTFOOTFORWARD….-26
RHOSSILI BAY….-27
MAJOR BUCKLEY….-27
DOLLY COLMAN….-29
BESTFOOTFORWARD….-36

ADVICE – I have a definite draw bias to work with but, not the horses. Low look best, for sure and high look worst boxed and of those in my top six having found a prime box and having won previously on ground that makes hooves sound like castanets is STRATEGIC ACTION so, just a small 20/80 that one.

BRIGHTON 5-10

*BLOODSWEATANDTEARS….+17
*LIGHTNING SPIRIT….+10
*SIGNOR FRASI….+8
ANOTHER SQUEEZE….+2
*BYRD IN HAND….-3
SAINT IRENE….-9
ERMYN FLYER….-15
RAINBOW RICHES….-17
DIVINE FLYER….-19
DARNATHEAN….-19
FONTERUTOLI….-21
DEVON DIVA….-22
INDIAN VIOLET….-25
TRUST ME BOY….-27
HILL OF DREAMS….-27
ATTAIN….-36

THREE TO DUTCH – BLOODSWEATANDTEARS, LIGHTNING SPIRIT, SIGNOR FRASI
20/80 – BLOODSWEATANDTEARS
EXOTICS – BLOODSWEATANDTEARS, LIGHTNING SPIRIT, SIGNOR FRASI
LAY – HILL OF DREAMS
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – HIGH JUST PREFERRED OVER MIDDLE BUT NOT MUCH IN IT…I JUST WOULD NOT WANT LOW FOR WIN PURPOSES.

ADVICE – What a way to finish…a wildebeest stampede. Top three all good to go on good to firm and drawn half decently…bar the third highest rated. It’s quite obviously yet another very low staking race.

I now have brain funk. It’s been like working on a Saturday!

OF INTEREST

KWANTO (Brighton 2-10) – place only
BRAVE BOY (Nottingham 2-20) – straight win
SECRET ART (Nottingham 4-50) – straight win
GOWANHARRY (Newcastle 6-00) – 20/80

PONTEFRACT 6-20

*VIOLENT VELOCITY….+17
*SARDANAPALUS….+13
*THRUST CONTROL….+7
*SAVE THE BEES….-4
SEATTLE DRIVE….-13
FALCON’S REIGN….-17
IMAGINARY WORLD….-22
*ELLAAL….-28
HAKUNA MATATA….-33
CROQUEEMBOUCHE….-40
STRIKER TORRES….-40
SAREEAH….-40
CHRISTMAS LIGHT….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – VIOLENT VELOCITY, SARDANAPALUS, THRUST CONTROL
20/80 – VIOLENT VELOCITY
EXOTICS – VIOLENT VELOCITY, SARDANAPALUS, THRUST CONTROL
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low draw as big a must have as at Chester…if I have read this correctly. Certainly, drawn higher than nine and it’s ball and chain stuff.

ADVICE – Interesting to see Richard Hughes coming up here tonight and I expect Ryan Moore to beat him on the winners score tonight. He looks booked for two minimum but they’ll be shorties. Top three drawn well, winners on the ground, they get the call.

PONTEFRACT 6-50

*ARIZONA JOHN….-9
*PERSIAN PERIL….-9
*GETABUZZ….-13
*FOSSGATE….-14
*MAJOR DOMO….-17
*DARING INDIAN….-20
DEWALA….-22
WATTS UP SON….-23
*KANDARI….-25
*SIR BOSS….-25
MY GUARDIAN ANGEL….-40

ADVICE – No draw bias, most of this lot will handle the ground although PERSIAN PERIL probably wants some rain and I’ll again just put faith in my figures.

BET OF THE DAY

It is low grade racing today and I can find nothing I would fancy strongly amongst my rated races.

LAY OF THE DAY

ROYAL HOLIDAY (Newcastle 3-00) – never won on turf (never even placed on it!), to my mind poorly drawn, never won away from Southwell, I have to be a layer.
MONSIEUR PONTAVEN (Newcastle 3-30) – two placings from eight runs on anything slower than good, not won on turf since 2010, and whilst you would not be confident about finding a winner, I will lay this one.

I am now going to have a lay down in a dark room.

Be lucky!

Kindest regards

Ron

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