Another very good day at the office yesterday….
FIRST MOHICAN….+8 – WON 11/2 > 3/1
THREE TO DUTCH – FIRST MOHICAN, ITLAAQ, BRIDLE BELLE
20/80 – FIRST MOHICAN
EXOTICS – FIRST MOHICAN, ITLAAQ, BRIDLE BELLE
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Those drawn 11, 12, 13 and 14 have work to do, I’m favouring low/middle, slight preference for those middle.
ADVICE – Taken literally, the more rain the better for my top rated, who has done his winning so far with juice in the ground, is drawn well enough in three so hopefully something to collect from that pay window.
RESULT – A visit to the pay window indeed. A very nice top rated winner to start off the day.
*FARLOW….+9 – 5TH 15/2
*NOCTURN….+8 – 2ND 4/1
*LOUIS THE PIOUS….+6 – 6TH 9/2
*EVENS AND ODDS….-15
THREE TO DUTCH – FARLOW, TAX FREE, LOUIS THE PIOUS
20/80 – FARLOW
EXOTICS – FARLOW, TAX FREE, LOUIS THE PIOUS
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Not a lot in this but I’m reading high over low, slightly, with low drawn scuppered.
ADVICE – If I’m reading this correctly then FARLOW and TAX FREE have plenty going for them. Rated horses 2, 4 and 5 have what I consider the worst of the draw and so, it’s that other trio getting the gig.
RESULT – Would not have touted up MASS RALLY for a big clock….I got this one wrong.
*NOVIRAK….+9 – 3RD 10/1
*BOLLIN GRETA….+9 – 4TH 25/1
*LIVIA’S DREAM….+5 – NR
THREE TO DUTCH – COSMIC SUN, NOVIRAK, SIRVINO
20/80 – COSMIC SUN, SIRVINO
EXOTICS – COSMIC SUN, NOVIRAK, SIRVINO
LAY – COCKNEY SPARROW
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Favouring high over low with middle needing snookers.
ADVICE – I have worked on the basis we’ll have good ground, although at the time I was prepping this lot, it was good to firm. They have had a fair bit of rain and it’s set to rain until noon-ish so, it might get worse. Bear that in mind when punting and check for updates. If Fahey can work his magic my top rated would win this but that’s why I dutch, we don’t know. I really do like SIRVINO, who should have run on Saturday….they have kept Hughes on board and with him being drawn where I want him and with good to soft not an issue (should it get that juicy), he’s an additional 20/80.
RESULT – High did indeed hold the winner in it’s ranks but watch this race back again and see how unlucky SIRVINO was. He has finished 11th full of running after being blocked off twice inside the final couple of furlongs. A winner waiting to happen.
MINCE (York 3-15) – straight win
RESULT – ran with the choke out from start to finish and was let down inside the last two furlongs. The rains will not have helped this one’s chances but we live to fight another day.
*DREAM MAKER….+8 – 6TH 20/1
UNKNOWN VILLAIN….-8 – 4TH 7/1
LANCELOT DU LAC….-13 – WON 8/1
LINE OF REASON….-23
OLD MAN CLEGG….-23
ADVICE – Not a race I myself will be punting but, I feel i should point out that the turf form of MUNDAHESH is, if taken literally, a bit better than the rest of these. His third to the 2000Gns third VAN DER NEER is pretty smokey form. He won on the all weather (easily) and has since been gelded. The draw he has copped for is spot on and I expect him to run a big race. My top rated has winning form on the going (good), but I’m not sure he has been drawn kindly.
RIGHT TOUCH has draw and ground right and if I was tempted to pop a shekel on, that would carry it.
RESULT – Nothing much wrong with the figures and I may start working on these races earlier than usual.
*DANISA….+7 – 3RD 10/1
ADVICE – Not a race that “inspires”. Only one horse a previous winner on good to soft, it tops my figures so, just a 20/80 that one.
RESULT – Top rated placed, profits banked, job done.
ADVICE – Not a single one of these has won on the going as currently described and for me it’s a no bet race.
ABOVE THE STARS….+16 – WON 9/2
ADVICE – This race could fall apart if those rains keep falling and so any bets at this end will be left until I know what’s actually turning out. My top rated was a lovely winner for us nine days back but this ground will be very different. The mare has never even placed on anything worse than good so she would have to be dropped if they have it worse than that. She has a great draw in seven but given her running style I’m of a mind she would need luck in running, too.
Only one horse has everything I am looking for in a bet here….FIRST REBELLION. In my top six rated, drawn right, ground no issue…20/80 if everything remains as is (15 runners, good to soft)….if that alters, so will my decision making.
RESULT – With so many non-runners I ended up playing my top rated to a small 20/80 and a cracking good end to the day.
BET OF THE DAY
If I had to nominate just one, it’s FARLOW – 20/80 – York 2-15. Only if it went soft would I up stumps there today but good or good to soft and I expect him to run a big race at a big price. Top rated, cracking good draw, ground currently right.
RESULT – Ran a cracker to finish 5th. Being placed wide on the outside with no cover didn’t help his cause as he had to race into the wind but he’ll win races this season, when getting his conditions.
LAY OF THE DAY
COCKNEY SPARROW – if it went soft then no, it’s no lay of the day, just a lay so please, monitor going conditions….prefers going right handed, needs more juice in the ground, drawn what I would consider to be the least favourable place in middle, he’ll do very well to win today.
RESULT – Now 4-4 with the Banker lays as this one finished 6th.
BONJOUR STEVE (Bath 6-10) – 20/80 (if less than eight runners, scrub it!) – all 8 went to post, placed 3rd 12/1 > 8/1, profits banked.
HARBOUR CAPTAIN (Bath 8-10) – 20/80 – 9/4 > 7/4, won pulling a caravan.
YORK – Flat (Updated:15/05/2013 at 16:11:11)
Going Stick reading at 8.30am – overall 7.7; homestraight –
7.6; centre – 7.7; standside 7.5.
(GoingStick: 7.7 on Wednesday at 08:30)StallsStalls: 5f, 6f and 1m4f – centre; remainder – inside rail.
RailsRail on traditional inside line around home bend for
Wednesday and Thursday – no adjustment to official race
distances. For Friday, rail from the 9f to entrance to home
straight will be moved out 3m, adding 7 yards to official
race distances of one mile and over.
Weather18mm overnight until 12 noon. Current conditions at 4pm:dry
cloudy,and cold. Met Office Forecast:Dry Wednesday night.
Thursday:sunny spells, chance of a passing shower. Friday:
showers during morning clearing in afternoon
* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
*JUDGE ‘N JURY….+8
STONE OF FOLCA….-32
THREE TO DUTCH – ANCIENT CROSS, JUDGE ‘N JURY, MAGICAL MACEY
20/80 – ANCIENT CROSS
EXOTICS – ANCIENT CROSS, JUDGE ‘N JURY
LAY – JAMAICAN BOLT
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Favouring low drawn, middle/high right on their coat tails.
ADVICE – Horses rated 2, 3 and 4 and drawn right where I want them and with no going issues I’m hopeful of a good run for my cash.
*TWO FOR TWO….+9
*PRINCE OF JOHANNE….-13
*DANCE AND DANCE….-14
SET THE TREND….-21
ES QUE LOVE….-22
THREE TO DUTCH – TWO FOR TWO, ANDERIEGO, MARCRET
20/80 – TWO FOR TWO
EXOTICS – TWO FOR TWO
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Middle preferred over low, high worst spot to be in.
ADVICE – I’m thinking David O’Meara has this boxed off. The draw slightly puts me off my top rated, but only because I have three where I want them, in my top six rated horses. In all honesty, if the winner is outside my top five I’ll take up knitting.
THE FUN CRUSHER….-17
COME HERE YEW….-19
FLEUR DE LA VIE….-40
ADVICE – A long distance affair that never really appeals as a betting medium. The horse that will have every member thinking is CHANCERY, one of my horses to follow this term. They think he could be a Cup horse and have campaigned him so far over an inadequate trip on ground faster than he likes, giving lumps of weight away to improving three year olds. I’ll probably just watch this one.
NO RATED RACES AT SALISBURY
That meeting has no all aged handicaps and so, nowt for me to work with.
The evening figures below but, before I break into song, I received an e-mail from a member asking how I had set about selecting ABOVE THE STARS in that last race at Bath yesterday, given the text applied to the race in question. He seemed quite sure my selection had been FIRST REBELLION and that I was dismissing my top rated because of the ground.
I have responded but, just to clear something up that is important….and this was a very fair question to ask of me, by the way….I will run through my response on here, just in case anyone else is thinking the same thing but is not looking to e-mail me for clarification.
When I rated that race my first thought was…what are they actually going to be racing on. The first line of the text reads, “This race could fall apart if those rains keep falling and so any bets at this end will be left until I know what’s actually turning out“. That is exactly what I did do. The race fell apart as expected but, when I was reading the times of the races that had gone before, it looked to me as if the ground was nothing like as bad as anyone feared. Even the 13 furlong race was only 4.75 secs shy of standard and the race run immediately before that 8-40pm job was just 2 seconds off standard so, I put my own 2+2 together, came up with my own 4 and just opted to work with my top one.
Again, in my text I wrote regarding FIRST REBELLION, “Only one horse has everything I am looking for in a bet here….FIRST REBELLION. In my top six rated, drawn right, ground no issue…20/80 if everything remains as is (15 runners, good to soft)….if that alters, so will my decision making. As far as I was concerned, everything had altered. The draw bias has been negated, I didn’t feel the ground was slow, and it felt to me a common sense decision to simply play my top rated, who was an in form horse that had been given a winning opportunity by virtue of those considerations having changed.
Had FIRST REBELLION won pulling a cart I would have taken great pleasure in letting you know I had indulged in self flagellation because I had punted another but as it was, he reared up coming out of the stalls, lost a good few lengths and finished 17 lengths last.
When you receive my Newsletters I’m trying to give you some idea of what I’m looking at and why but, come the time to have a bet, you yourself has to look at the race and decide if things have altered sufficiently for my ramblings to make no sense any more. I’ll be doing my best to provide clues etc but it’s impossible for me to get news out to everyone betting on the same race, regarding my own change of plan.
As someone watching yourself, you might disagree with my thoughts…I would expect that as I hope I’m not preaching to people who think I have a gourd and wear sandals. I’m just a punter like you. You might have looked at the ground and felt it did look slow.
At York yesterday the COC was interviewed on RUK and he advised listeners that he felt it could be riding soft but the pundit on duty, Eddy Fremantle, felt it was, if anything, good ground. He had walked the course himself and looking at the times, he and not the COC, was right. It was definitely not soft anywhere but, it’s just a difference of opinion. The most important thing yesterday was not to be leading. If you look at the finishing positions yesterday of those that forced the pace you know that, once they hit the straight, the headwind was proving a blessing for those in behind, using the front runners as wind breaks. In all bar one race yesterday the Racing Post Analysis/Comments about all bar one winner reads, “held up”. That factor was more important than any other there yesterday.
I had that written down after race two and I laid horses for the rest of the day, in running, that were running from the front when those gates opened….including the one I had posted as a straight win bet in my OF INTEREST section. MINCE had no chance of winning the Duke Of York and the market drift was absolutely spot on. Should I have mentioned that?…probably not because possibly you are now thinking, “yooooou swine!”….but had I got that call wrong, I would have been sitting here with egg on my face.
It is all about each of us, having the same information, to then make decisions. I tell you mine in my text, you yourself will make yours based on my figures, notes, your own perception and punt accordingly. But if you are not in my position, that being sat in front of my monitors and having up to the second information, once you have placed your bet and gone to work, you will be undone by drastic changes in circumstances. I have been asked several times by members to run their Betfair accounts for them, in return for a commission but that’s never going to happen. I’d never sleep at nights!
Doubtless I will be writing all that again at some point in the future and that’s why I would never, ever, become a tipster. Many punters honestly believe that tipsters are all criminals (some most certainly are) but a few will be trying to do things honestly and provide you with a winner. However, the damage is done once it rains heavy enough to change the ground, or horses you felt would make the pace are taken out and the way a race will be run changes. So many things can go wrong before and during a race, that render hours of work useless. Oh for this to be an exact science….but then if it was, nobody would be a layer.
Winning and losing, both wings on the same bird.
* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described.
THREE TO DUTCH – TARTAN GIGHA, STRIKE FPORCE, FROZEN OVER
20/80 – TARTAN GIGHA
EXOTICS – TARTAN GIGHA, STRIKE FORCE, FROZEN OVER
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High over low, middle third best place to be.
ADVICE – Rated horses 2, 3 and 4 are the only ones here with winning form on genuine good ground. The three best drawn of my top six are LAYLINE, ROYAL DUTCH and JUDICIOUS….so what do I do?. I’ve opted to play those having the good ground form. Two are drawn low, which is ok, just not best. Staking will reflect the fact I’ve angst regarding this race but hopefully the trips made by TARTAN GIGHA (364 MILE ROUND) and FROZEN OVER (436 MILE ROUND), were worth it for a first prize of £3,234.50.
ADVICE – A low scoring affair in which my top five have all won previously on good ground and so, I trust to my runes. Top three dutch, 20/80 ATTWAAL and exotics.
*MY SON MAX….-1
THREE TO DUTCH – RYLEE MOOCH, MACDILLON, BLUE JACK
20/80 – RYLEE MOOCH
EXOTICS – RYLEE MOOCH, MACDILLON, BLUE JACK
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low over high, middle looking to need just the lid nailing down.
ADVICE – Three obtaining a + figure, all drawn right, all having won on good, trip spot on, it would be rude of me not to utilise them.
SONGBIRD (Salisbury 1-30) – 20/80
ZEYRAN (Salisbury) – 20/80
MALAYSIAN BOLEH (Salisbury 4-15) – 20/80
ELKAAYED (Newmarket 6-25) – straight win
STARSCOPE (York 2-15) – straight win
GREATWOOD (York 2-45) – straight win
BET OF THE DAY
Nothing appeals as a good bet this afternoon. I’m happy with my figures but wouldn’t be looking to go max about them.
LAY OF THE DAY
Have a brilliant day and the very best of luck if you get involved.