Yesterday good for you? Once again the Ratings were terrific and even those three year old only events I looked at proved absolutely spot on. It really is simply about my accurately assessing a race and then the going remaining as advised….the rest is then up to horse and jockey.
Chepstow was effectively rained off but, as I wrote to one of our number on Facebook, the rains made ASTRA HALL as good a bet as we would find all day, and he duly obliged.
A quick look back and then I’ll have my York figures in this Newsletter, a second one coming out later with my numbers for the evening meeting at Bath
*MEY BLOSSOM….+8 – WON 14/1
*IRISH BOY….-1 – 2ND 20/1
THREE TO DUTCH – MEY BLOSSOM, INGLEBY STAR, IRISH BOY
20/80 – MEY BLOSSOM
EXOTICS – MEY BLOSSOM, INGLEBY STAR, IRISH BOY
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – I do not want to be drawn 1, 2 or 3 but anywhere else is fine.
ADVICE – My top two rated are drawn right, like good to firm, are previous CD winners and if they have a going day, I might just have a decent dividend awaiting me.
RESULT – Decent dividend indeed! Dutch, 20/80 the top rated (paid many points bigger on the Exchanges, believe me!), a 248/1 CSF and a 204/1 Exacta.
*SHADOWTIME….+13 – 3RD 7/1
*TOTO SKYLLACHY….+8 – WON 5/2
TWO TO DUTCH – TOTO SKYLLACHY, SHADOWTIME
20/80 – SHADOWTIME
EXOTIC – SHADOWTIME, TOTO SKYLLACHY
LAY – NONE
ADVICE – Top pair will do for all bets.
RESULT – Again, absolutely nothing wrong with the numbers and the profits banked off the dutch.
CONVERSING….+2 – 2ND 11/4
HURRICANE JOHN….-11 – 6TH 8/1
FLAMINGO BEAT….-16 – WON 3/1
HALFWAYTOCOOTEHILL….-31 – 3RD 12/1 > 8/1
FRENCH REVOLUTION….-32 – 5TH 20/1
EARLY ONE MORNING….-40
ADVICE – The first of those all “3-y-o” races….not one has won on good to firm….in fact, not one has won. We have no idea as to anything really and if you punt this, you must have just extricated yourself from a Straitjacket.
RESULT – Top five rated in the first six home, winner and runner up in my top three, perhaps not so mad after all….thanks for asking, Vince!
SHEARIAN….+9 – 4TH 8/1
WELLINGROVE….+7 – 2ND 9/2
MARHABA MALAYEEN….-17 – WON 9/1 > 9/2
INGLEBY SYMPHONY….-32 – 3RD 5/2
ADVICE – The second of the 3-y-o only handicaps. Put that Straitjacket back on.
RESULT – Top four rated, first four home. That’ll do for me.
*INDIAN TRAIL….+16 – 2ND 13/2
*DIAMOND BLUE….+10 – 3RD 13/2
*BALTIC BOMBER….+10 – 4TH 16/1
BLACK ANNIS BOWER….-10
THREE TO DUTCH – INDIAN TRAIL, DIAMOND BLUE, BALTIC BOMBER
20/80 – INDIAN TRAIL
EXOTICS – INDIAN TRAIL, DIAMOND BLUE, BALTIC BOMBER
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – I am seeing exactly the same scenario as that for the 3-10 race here.
ADVICE – Simply a case of trusting to the runes and hoping they come up trumps.
RESULT – Outstanding figures again and oh so close to another terrific dividend.
APRIL CIEL….+8 – 2ND 5/1
SIX SILVER LANE….-13
ADVICE – I’m loathe to even consider punting this because just two of the 16 runners has scored perviously on good to soft. They are both poorly drawn if my perception of the draw bias is right….low most certainly requiring of divine intervention. I would ideally want to be high end of middle to high and APRIL CIEL is boxed just great and has a soft ground win to his name. CD winner he’s probably the one to work with and if I do get involved it will just be a 20/80 that one.
RESULT – Profit banked, job done…..played to absolute buttons because of deteriorating going conditions but I’m not greedy, any profit will do.
ASTRA HALL….-26 – WON 1/1
ADVICE – Another race in which not a single horse has won previously on good to soft. The figures are right…it reads more like an all 3-y-o handicap…and if you yourself must play, I suggest it’s an October Rules jobby.
RESULT – Easy pickings and I did have a pretty decent go at this one, given the rains falling.
*JEWELLED DAGGER….+14 – NR
CASH INJECTION….-13 – NR
DREAM CATCHER….-23 – NR
STORY WRITER….-33 – NR
COOL HAND LUKE….-40 – NR
ADVICE – My top rated did us all a cracking good turn recently (surprised a fair few of you too, judging by my inbox next day!), and he looks to have been found another easy assignment. Problem is, can he reproduce that performance? If he does, he wins by virtue of the fact he’s miles clear on my figures and, he’s the only runner in the field with a win on good to soft. I hate it when something looks a “certainty” because you just know something, at this level of racing, is going to come to the aid of the layers. Just a straight win bet JEWELLED DAGGER and if it comes off, whoop de doo!
RESULT – I just walked away from this one once my top rated was pulled out.
YORK – Flat (Updated:15/05/2013 at 05:58:38)
(GoingStick: tba on Wednesday at 09:00)
Stalls: 5f, 6f and 1m4f – centre; remainder – inside rail.
Rail on traditional inside line around home bend for
Wednesday and Thursday – no adjustment to official race
distances. For Friday, rail from the 9f to entrance to home
straight will be moved out 3m, adding 7 yards to official
race distances of one mile and over.
13mm overnight until 5.45am. Current conditions at 6am: main
band of rain is passing to north to clear by 8am; then patchy
rain. Met Office Forecast: Wednesday morning – patchy light
rain / drizzle through to noon; afternoon – shower risk.
Thursday: dry night, sunny spells, chance of a passing shower.
Friday: mixture of sunny spells and showers.
* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described.
THREE TO DUTCH – FIRST MOHICAN, ITLAAQ, BRIDLE BELLE
20/80 – FIRST MOHICAN
EXOTICS – FIRST MOHICAN, ITLAAQ, BRIDLE BELLE
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Those drawn 11, 12, 13 and 14 have work to do, I’m favouring low/middle, slight preference for those middle.
ADVICE – Taken literally, the more rain the better for my top rated, who has done his winning so far with juice in the ground, is drawn well enough in three so hopefully something to collect from that pay window.
*LOUIS THE PIOUS….+6
*EVENS AND ODDS….-15
THREE TO DUTCH – FARLOW, TAX FREE, LOUIS THE PIOUS
20/80 – FARLOW
EXOTICS – FARLOW, TAX FREE, LOUIS THE PIOUS
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Not a lot in this but I’m reading high over low, slightly, with low drawn scuppered.
ADVICE – If I’m reading this correctly then FARLOW and TAX FREE have plenty going for them. Rated horses 2, 4 and 5 have what I consider the worst of the draw and so, it’s that other trio getting the gig.
THREE TO DUTCH – COSMIC SUN, NOVIRAK, SIRVINO
20/80 – COSMIC SUN, SIRVINO
EXOTICS – COSMIC SUN, NOVIRAK, SIRVINO
LAY – COCKNEY SPARROW
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Favouring high over low with middle needing snookers.
ADVICE – I have worked on the basis we’ll have good ground, although at the time I was prepping this lot, it was good to firm. They have had a fair bit of rain and it’s set to rain until noon-ish so, it might get worse. Bear that in mind when punting and check for updates. If Fahey can work his magic my top rated would win this but that’s why I dutch, we don’t know. I really do like SIRVINO, who should have run on Saturday….they have kept Hughes on board and with him being drawn where I want him and with good to soft not an issue (should it get that juicy), he’s an additional 20/80.
MINCE (York 3-15) – straight win
UPDATED 15/05/13 10-50AM
I have been sitting here, eating my toast and constantly refreshing the BHA website for going info…got it…Bath has gone good to soft. It seems both tracks are easing as I type and that might cause issues later on but, nowt I can do about that now.
Firstly, I have had the feedback from Grandorio’s latest run.
“Grandorio has returned home, has eaten up and been on the walker this morning, and seems to have taken his race well.
Grandorio ran a fine race at Doncaster. He was a close-up third in a handicap that, although short on numbers, looked a decent one. It was certainly a solid effort on figures, though perhaps not quite to his best – similarly to last year’s effort at Wolverhampton which came shortly after his win at Newcastle.
He appeared slightly outpaced at points in the race, which Danny confirmed after the race, suggesting that 10 furlongs may suit better.
We’ll now give Grandorio a little time to recover while we go through the racing calendar to find his next target, likely to be over 10 furlongs, and be back in touch next Friday 24th May with the latest training news and possible entry plans.”
BATH – Flat (Updated:15/05/2013 at 07:07:51)
Good to Soft, Good in Places
21mm of rain last 24hrs
(GoingStick: 7.7 on Wednesday at 06:30)
5f & 5.5f Centre
The rail position on the far bend adds approximately 10yds to
races of 1m and further.
Forecast: Patchy rain (4-5mm), clearing later.
* indicates winners on the going as currently described
LANCELOT DU LAC….-13
LINE OF REASON….-23
OLD MAN CLEGG….-23
ADVICE – Not a race I myself will be punting but, I feel i should point out that the turf form of MUNDAHESH is, if taken literally, a bit better than the rest of these. His third to the 2000Gns third VAN DER NEER is pretty smokey form. He won on the all weather (easily) and has since been gelded. The draw he has copped for is spot on and I expect him to run a big race. My top rated has winning form on the going (good), but I’m not sure he has been drawn kindly.
RIGHT TOUCH has draw and ground right and if I was tempted to pop a shekel on, that would carry it.
ADVICE – Not a race that “inspires”. Only one horse a previous winner on good to soft, it tops my figures so, just a 20/80 that one.
ADVICE – Not a single one of these has won on the going as currently described and for me it’s a no bet race.
ABOVE THE STARS….+16
ADVICE – This race could fall apart if those rains keep falling and so any bets at this end will be left until I know what’s actually turning out. My top rated was a lovely winner for us nine days back but this ground will be very different. The mare has never even placed on anything worse than good so she would have to be dropped if they have it worse than that. She has a great draw in seven but given her running style I’m of a mind she would need luck in running, too.
Only one horse has everything I am looking for in a bet here….FIRST REBELLION. In my top six rated, drawn right, ground no issue…20/80 if everything remains as is (15 runners, good to soft)….if that alters, so will my decision making.
BET OF THE DAY
If I had to nominate just one, it’s FARLOW – 20/80 – York 2-15. Only if it went soft would I up stumps there today but good or good to soft and I expect him to run a big race at a big price. Top rated, cracking good draw, ground currently right.
LAY OF THE DAY
COCKNEY SPARROW – if it went soft then no, it’s no lay of the day, just a lay so please, monitor going conditions….prefers going right handed, needs more juice in the ground, drawn what I would consider to be the least favourable place in middle, he’ll do very well to win today.
BONJOUR STEVE (Bath 6-10) – 20/80 (if less than eight runners, scrub it!)
HARBOUR CAPTAIN (Bath 8-10) – 20/80
Best of luck today, fingers crossed we get the ground we want.