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Today’s Ratings and Advice 01/05/13

We had to wait until the very last rated race for a “result” yesterday but, it was worth waiting for. That Bath 5-20 was the only race in which we had a definite draw bias to work with and everything panned out nicely.

BATH 5-20

*THE NAME IS FRANK….+11 – 6th 20/1
*KYLLACHY STORM….+11 – 2ND 10/1
*DREAMS OF GLORY….+9 – WON 8/1
*VOLCANIC DUST….+/-0 – 5th 25/1
TRENDING….-1
LOYAL ROYAL….-3
*ATHWAAB….-6
WHERE’S REILEY….-7
*EVEN BOLDER….-10
JOLLY RANCH….-13
*SIR DON….-15
FICELLE….-22
PICANSORT….-27
MANDY’S HERO….-28
COURAGEOUS….-33

ADVICE – This was another that, on first inspection sent a shudder down my spine. Again less than £2k to the winner but this is much stronger and, I see a definite draw bias to work with. High drawn are what I want….middle not far off them but low are binned. My top rated has everything in his favour but I’m very concerned about the trip….looks on the short side to me. It’s another race I’ll just punt using those October Rules again. My top three has two drawn right where I want them, another drawn middle and all three good to go on good to firm.

RESULT – My top rated did indeed find the trip on the short side and I’ll be watching for him over further in the very near future. He was finishing his race off as well as any, finishing 6th. The figures played a blinder with my top four in the first six past the winning post and me nailing that 102/1 Exacta and the 76/1 CSF.

Today the season starts “proper”. I’ll be taking things seriously from here and playing properly.

We have two meetings at Ascot and Pontefract to work with but each offers up just one rated race. I’ve added a race at Kempton’s all weather meeting after receiving a request from a member to do so, last night. I think he’s going to be mighty pleased with the figures!

Assumptions:

ASCOT – Flat (Updated:30/04/2013 at 10:08:46)   

GoingGood, Good to Soft in places
(GoingStick: Straight : 7.3, Round : 8.2 on Monday at 08:30)StallsStraight Course: CentreWeather3mm rain on Sat.Dry since then. Due to be dry now through to
raceday.

CHELTENHAM – Jump (Updated:30/04/2013 at 16:34:10)   

GoingGood to Soft, Good in Places
(GoingStick: 7.0 on Monday at 14:00)WeatherDry and warm.WateringWatered.

KEMPTON PARK – Flat (Updated:29/04/2013 at 14:40:06)   

GoingStandardStallsAll Races: Inside

WateringWatering

PONTEFRACT – Flat (Updated:30/04/2013 at 11:11:01)   

GoingGood to Firm, Good in places
(GoingStick: 8.5 on Tuesday at 11:00)StallsInside all racesWeatherNegligible rain on Thursday with 1/2mm rain on Saturday morning.
Otherwise dry and bright week.
Dry on Sunday and breezy on Monday.
Tuesday is dry and bright and the forecast is for the same on
Wednesday.WateringWe watered on Friday (5mm)and Monday (5mm).
We are watering selectively on Tuesday with a max of 2mm to
maintain.

SOUTHWELL – Jump (Updated:30/04/2013 at 07:49:28)   

GoingGood,
(Watered)
(GoingStick: 7.6 on Tuesday at 07:30)RailsThe fences will be on the outside rail.
The bend into the home straight will be on its outer most line
The Golf club bend on it’s inner most lineWeather2mm of rainfall Monday morning
Dry Monday pm with temp highs of +12
Forecast
Dry Tuesday with temp high +11
Dry Wednesday with temp high +14WateringWill water to maintain if required.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described.

ASCOT 4-45

*YOJIMBO….+8
*FIRST POST….+8
*SNOW TROOPER….+5
ROCKALONG….-8
*UPPERCUT….-9
*TOGA TIGER….-10
KAAFEL….-10
*CHAPTER AND VERSE….-13
TWENTY ONE CHOICE….-23
FOREST ROW….-25
HURRICANE LADY….-27
*KARAKA JACK….-28
ANOTHER TRY….-35
FROG HOLLOW….-37
TIGERS TALE….-37
ROCKY REEF….-40
SCOTTISH STAR….-40
POISSON D’OR….-40
GOOD AUTHORITY….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – YOJIMBO, FIRST POST, SNOW TROOPER
20/80 – FIRST POST
EXOTICS – YOJIMBO, FIRST POST, SNOW TROOPER
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Ultra competitive heat and I am pining my hopes on my having read the draw correctly. I’m favouring high over middle, with low just off them. Plenty will depend on whether the ground continues to dry out as that might alter things slightly. If I’m of a mind it’s getting quicker through the day I will revisit the race and send out any revisions. My top three have a + figure, good to go on the ground “as is”, two are drawn spot on if I’m right about the high numbers having it best and at the prices they are on the tissue I have to speculate. I’m very wary of ROCKALONG. He has done his winning on the sand so far and as we saw at Windsor on Monday, when two other such favourites, HANSEATIC and COUSIN KHEE were turned over, until they’ve done it on grass, we can wait until that form is in the book. If he does transfer his form to turf then he has a great chance so, if he’s your fancy, he’s more than well enough rated to be considered a punt.
I’ve opted to run with FIRST POST as my 20/80 despite the fact Dane O’Neill finds riding winners here a bit of a chore. No winners from 54 rides here over the last five years is worrying but at the odds, I’ll have a small pop at it. The horse likes it here so, that’s a plus.

PONTEFRACT 3-20

*BLUE MAISEY….+7
*DAKOTA CANYON….+/-0
*TALENT SCOUT….-8
MAKBULLET….-9
*ALLURING STAR….-17
SEHNSUCHT….-22
EASTWARD HO….-24
EUTROPIUS….-27
SAVE THE BEES….-36
DIALOGUE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – BLUE MAISEY, DAKOTA CANYON, TALENT SCOUT
20/80 – BLUE MAISEY
EXOTICS – BLUE MAISEY, DAKOTA CANYON, TALENT SCOUT
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – I will happily work with my figures here. no draw bias to worry about, a clear top rated horse for whom trip and ground are right so, let’s just see what comes back.

KEMPTON 7-00

*MISTER GREEN….+11
*ALHABAN….+11
*WHINGING WILLIE….+10
*DIVINE RULE….+10
*WEST LEAKE….+9
*UNCLE FRED….+9
*ADDIKT….+9
*WARBOND….+8
*MISHRIF….+8
*CATCHANOVA….+8
*KAKAPUKA….-4
SPIRIT OF XAAR….-17
GRAND THEFT EQUINE….-18
WHITSTABLE NATIVE….-24

ADVICE – As you know, I generally look at something else when all we have is all weather racing but I have seen plenty of evidence in the past that when the prize money is worth racing for, my figures tend to perform….that does not apply here, however and, if you put faith in my numbers to punt this race, say a prayer first!

OF INTEREST

CHAT (Ascot 2-30) – straight win
STIPULATE (Ascot 3-00) – straight win
SNOW KING (Ascot 4-10) – 20/80
GIOIA DI VITA (Pontefract 4-30) – 20/80

BET/LAY OF THE DAY

I had intended posting something up on the website sections but with so little racing to work with nothing appeals as a major play today.

WELL HANDICAPPED HORSES

I am still tinkering with the formula for this as it’s nothing like as cut and dried as I had hoped but, I’m getting there. Once I am happy things are “right”, we’ll launch this section on the site.

Have a brilliant day and the very best of luck.

Kindest regards

Ron

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