A break is always welcome, even if it does kind of get in the way of progress and after enjoying a couple of weeks relaxing (ish), it was great to get back to work yesterday and didn’t the figures come up trumps!
The flat season starts, for me, tomorrow and punting in April is always done with me looking over my shoulder for ghosts. I’m as human as the next person and prone to errors of judgement, irrespective of what my figures tell me. I was guilty of such an error yesterday but, not before a success in the first rated race had put me clear of the layers, DUKE OF CLARENCE, trained by Richard Hannon, the only horse in that race to achieve a + figure holding off the favourite by a cosy neck, i thought.
My figures for that second rated race had one miles clear but, being the pedantic swine I am, I opted to read to much into the draw bias I had perceived and dropped the winner from my dutch. I shouldn’t be to hard on myself as I did have the 25/1 3rd placed horse in that bet and so working as I do will see me clear of the layers come season end….granted a dry summer.
My figures for yesterday are below and if anyone reading would like to see what today holds, please feel free to make a payment of just £2 for the daily download or, take up one of the packages available.
DUKE OF CLARENCE….+6 – WON 11/4 > 9/4
IF I WERE A BOY….-34
ADVICE – Rating both races today has come with a bit of a nightmare attached. In both the tissue favourites are wholly unexposed and I have absolutely no idea how good or otherwise HANSEATIC is. I think it fair to say the form of his one race to date has worked out brilliantly, as the first three that finished behind him that day have all won since and were he to win this pulling double it will not come as a surprise. We have just one horse in the race with winning form on good to soft but he’s a miler and of no interest to me here. In a nutshell, I expect the favourite to win “if” he has trained on, improves for stepping up in trip and performs as well on grass as he did on sand. For purely an interest (and because I have worked on the race), I’ll have a 20/80 DUKE OF CLARENCE as Hannon and Hughes took this race last year with a 13/2 shot that beat a Noseda/Moore favourite who was well fancied and hopefully they repeat the dose.
ATTWAAL….+18 – WON 4/1
ADVICE – COUSIN KHEE is the one causing me angst here. Only two runs on the board, well drawn in 10 (high favoured over low, middle akin to a coffin box), if he handles good to soft turf then even off top weight, he’ll be competitive. He too has only raced on sand before today and it’s simply another collection of “ifs” surrounding him. My top rated is miles clear on the numbers but he’s up in grade, the going is quicker than it was when he won two weeks ago, that draw looks minging, and there is enough doubt in my mind not to play him in a dutch….which is the only bet I will be having here. Those in the dutch will be those in my top six having won on good to soft and, having a draw 10-14….STAR DATE and SULA TWO fit the bill but, because I’m feeling cowardly I’ll bring in a low drawn one that loves it here, CHORAL FESTIVAL. This mare has won or placed in 18 of her 22 starts here and whilst one placing from three starts on good to soft is not encouraging, it’s in because she acts on the track.