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Today’s Ratings and Advice 29/04/13

Still cold, isn’t it!

We have a good few hours to wait before my first rated race today but these hands will not be idle as I’ve got plenty on, which is great. I will be putting a Newsletter together regarding one or two things I need to advise you about but it’ll be brief and will primarily revolve around the naming of your Duke Of Marmalade filly.

So, two rated races from the track I like least on the entire planet. It should be easy. Windsor is a track Hannon and Hughes mop up races but for some reason (and I know a fair few pro punters say the same), it’s a track I simply have difficulty in reading. Things never seem to pan out as you expect but as it’s still April, I’ll not be posing much by way of Euros if it all goes pear shaped.

Assumptions:

WINDSOR – Flat (Updated:28/04/2013 at 10:09:20)
Going
Good to Soft, Good in Places
(GoingStick: 7.7 on Sunday at 09:30)

Stalls
Centre:- 1m 2f abt 7yds and 1m 3f abt 135yds.

Rails
Inner of straight dolled out 6yds at 6f and 3yds at the winning
post. Top bend dolled out 5yds from normal inner configuration
adding 20yds to race distances of 1m+

Weather
3.5mm rainfall yesterday.
10mm total rainfall this week.
Dry overnight.
Sunday:- dry and bright sunny start to the day, becoming cloudy
with the possibility of light rain showers during the evening 9c.
Monday:- dry with sunny intervals 12c

* indicates those horses having won previously on the going as currently described.

WINDSOR 7-10

DUKE OF CLARENCE….+6
*STARWATCH….-7
KICKINGTHELILLY….-15
CAYUGA….-22
HANSEATIC….-30
ISHIKAWA….-33
IF I WERE A BOY….-34
TAKEITFROMALADY….-40
GREYLAMI….-40

ADVICE – Rating both races today has come with a bit of a nightmare attached. In both the tissue favourites are wholly unexposed and I have absolutely no idea how good or otherwise HANSEATIC is. I think it fair to say the form of his one race to date has worked out brilliantly, as the first three that finished behind him that day have all won since and were he to win this pulling double it will not come as a surprise. We have just one horse in the race with winning form on good to soft but he’s a miler and of no interest to me here. In a nutshell, I expect the favourite to win “if” he has trained on, improves for stepping up in trip and performs as well on grass as he did on sand. For purely an interest (and because I have worked on the race), I’ll have a 20/80 DUKE OF CLARENCE as Hannon and Hughes took this race last year with a 13/2 shot that beat a Noseda/Moore favourite who was well fancied and hopefully they repeat the dose.

WINDSOR 7-40

ATTWAAL….+18
PALOMA’S PRINCE….+8
*STAR DATE….-1
*SULA TWO….-5
*SONDEDURO….-10
CHORAL FESTIVAL….-11
REFRACTOR….-13
JACOBS SON….-13
*PERFECT DELIGHT….-14
DR LIVINGSTONE….-14
FOCAIL MAITH….-17
COUSIN KHEE….-21
SAINT HELENA….-23
BROWN PETE….-24

ADVICE – COUSIN KHEE is the one causing me angst here. Only two runs on the board, well drawn in 10 (high favoured over low, middle akin to a coffin box), if he handles good to soft turf then even off top weight, he’ll be competitive. He too has only raced on sand before today and it’s simply another collection of “ifs” surrounding him. My top rated is miles clear on the numbers but he’s up in grade, the going is quicker than it was when he won two weeks ago, that draw looks minging, and there is enough doubt in my mind not to play him in a dutch….which is the only bet I will be having here. Those in the dutch will be those in my top six having won on good to soft and, having a draw 10-14….STAR DATE and SULA TWO fit the bill but, because I’m feeling cowardly I’ll bring in a low drawn one that loves it here, CHORAL FESTIVAL. This mare has won or placed in 18 of her 22 starts here and whilst one placing from three starts on good to soft is not encouraging, it’s in because she acts on the track.

OF INTEREST

EVIDENT (Windsor 6-10) – 20/80

We’ll not be getting rich off this lot today, that’s for sure and if I can squeeze any kind of profit out of the rated races I’ll be delighted.

Have a great day and the best of luck if you get involved

Kindest regards

Ron

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