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Today’s Ratings and Advice 09/04/13

With the news of Rosie being injured running in the Charity race having come through yesterday, we are all belting over to Helmsley this morning to obtain full details, find out where she will be resting up and reporting back in full tonight. We had intended mapping out a summer hurdling campaign for her this season but that will not now happen. A shame as we felt she would rattle up a few wins over timber for the charities but, such are the ups and downs of horse racing.

Whilst we are there today we will discuss with David and Roger what they require from us regarding the stable visit on May 19th. You still have time to put your name down for that if you have not yet done so and if you could let Paul know that you would like to come along for the naming ceremony of you filly, that would be great.

We still want your idea for names and what I will do to help in this regard is send out her full pedigree. Once we have a full list of names we will send them out to you for your consideration and you then pick one from the list. the most popular will be announced on the day!

The 500 Club admission for this Club year will close April 30th and that will mean only those on board at that time will have a share in the ownership of the filly for the two years we own her. If you are not yet a 500 Club member but would like to get involved in this exciting opportunity please e-mail me for full details. If any current 500 Club members know of anyone that would like to get involved again, please ask them to contact me. It’s not every year we will be given a free lease by Coolmore on one of their fillies and it’s a wonderful opportunity to be part of something special, for less than the price of a cup of Tesco’s tea per day.

Today we have some flat racing. Given it is Pontefract, the emphasis is on horses that are fit and ready to roll because you come here short of a gallop and you’ll be needing oxygen coming off that home bend!

Assumptions:

PONTEFRACT – Flat (Updated:08/04/2013 at 13:40:00)   

GoingGood to Soft, Good in places
(GoingStick: 6.8 on Monday at 13:30)

StallsStalls inside all races

WeatherNo rain/snow since 23rd March. It’s been cold and dry and the
course has been drying slowly since the snow melted.
Monday is more overcast and there is possible light drizzle
overnight.
Tuesday is forecast to be overcast but dry.
If we stay dry, then we may change to ‘Good, Good to Soft in
places’ on raceday.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described.

I have worked on the basis it is good to soft and my own selections have been based on that description being correct. If it does dry to good that brings more horses into the equation from a going point of view and you would then be looking for good ground horses in my top six rated.

PONTEFRACT 2-10

BLUE MAISEY….+14
*DOLPHIN ROCK….+9
SNOOKY….+7
BRIGADOON….-6
ELSPETH’S BOY….-8
BUZZ LAW….-10
PIVOTMAN….-10
TALENT SCOUT….-12
MERCHANT OF MEDICI….-14
CROWN CHOICE….-20
PICENO….-23
HAYEK….-25
KING OF PARADISE….-25
CUFFLINK….-33
FALCON’S REIGN….-40
TIGHT LIPPED….-40

ADVICE – A high draw here is akin to a ball and chain. My top rated would be binned on that basis alone. I’m looking primarily for horses drawn 1-6, in my top six rated, proven on good to soft ground and the only horse with a tick in all three of those boxes is DOLPHIN ROCK.
SNOOKY ticks two of them, draw and rating so, with that pair fronting the morning tissue it would be a simple common sense decision to dutch them, go 20/80 DOLPHIN ROCK and play up the exotics. Looking for a potential tricast play BUZZ LAW would be best drawn, if you consider low end of middle acceptable.

PONTEFRACT 3-40

*MY ARCH….+7
*MR CRYSTAL….+1
CTAPPERS….-12
*DORRY K….-17
*ZAPLAMATION….-22
ALL THAT REMAINS….-24
LINKABLE….-26
MAID OF MEFT….-27
*BATHWICK STREET….-28
HIDDEN JUSTICE….-34
MARMAS….-37
THERE’S NO RULES….-40
STICKLEBACK….-40
FATHER SHINE….-40

ADVICE – No draw bias to concern us here but fitness a very “must have” commodity. I would be inclined to select horse proven on the going, in my top six rated, that have run recently on the flat or over hurdles. They would be rated horses 1,4, 5…..now we’ll all watch MR CRYSTAL bolt in!
ALL THAT REMAINS is wholly unexposed on the flat and makes it’s handicap debut today having run fourth in a Bumper 12 days ago. No surprise if he were to improve enough to win this but I’ll not be on if he does.
I will simply set up a dutch MY ARCH, DORRY K and ZAPLAMATION, have a small 20/80 MY ARCH and tinker with those exotics but it will be just pennies used for the play.

PONTEFRACT 4-15

*EASY TERMS….+17
*LAS VERGLAS STAR….+11
*LICENCE TO TILL….+10
*SIRVINO….+9
*LADY LOCH….+8
*FLUIDITY….+8
*SPANISH DUKE….+6
*SILVERY MOON….-4
KINGSDESIRE….-13
WARLU WAY….-20
HIT THE JACKPOT….-22
*MOCCASIN….-24

ADVICE – Again no particular draw bias to concern me although high might be considered a snooker. Race fitness might be a concern for all bar two of these, one of which is trained by David O’Meara (rated 11th best) but for whom the current going and the trip are issues, in my humble opinion.
With LAS VERGLAS STAR having run just 10 days ago, being a previous CD winner and the ground being just fine, he’s in my dutch but being drawn high gives me a chin rubbing moment. It’ll be the top three for that play, my 20/80 will go to EASY TERMS, who won first time up last season following a long lay off, and exotics. Tiny stakes again though.

PONTEFRACT 5-15

SUNNYBRIDGE BOY….+12
*KODICIL….+10
GOLD SHOW….+6
WARCROWN….-1
CARRAGOLD….-9
CASHPOINT….-13
REGAL SWAIN….-16
JONNY LESTERS HAIR….-20
SIX SILVER LANE….-20
SYNCOPATE….-23
RAYADOUR….-24
DUBAIANSWER….-24
TENHOO….-25
GRAN MAESTRO….-33

ADVICE – Only one of these has won previously on good to soft, is in my top six, is drawn right where I want him and is 16/1 on the tissue. I’ve played KODICIL 20/80. I do perceive a draw bias here but it’s only those rated above eight I would not be interested in. That though, rules out my top rated horse. If i put on my pedantic hat then it’s only very slightly that I favour low (1-4)….GOLD SHOW and CARRAGOLD will get the thumbs up to join the Walford horse in my dutch and exotics but again, staking will be for “testing purposes only” limits

OF INTEREST

FLASHLIGHT (Pontefract 3-10) – straight win

I had best now get ready to leave here for Helmsley.

Have a great day and the very best of luck if you get involved. please remember though, we are still walking through the land of the funky result and don’t see the clearing until May 1st so keep staking seriously low!

Kindest regards

Ron

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