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Today’s Ratings and Advice 06/04/13

It’s going to be a big day for the four lads now heading off to aintree in possession of their owner/trainer badges! I’m actually going to be there to meet them, too. I got an e-mail from Bob Champion’s people on Wednesday thanking us for letting them borrow Rosie and saying they were looking forward to meeting us. I just wrote back advising them we only had four badges and felt it should be our members enjoying them and they got back right away saying they would send me a couple of Lord Sefton Stand badges and a letter that gets me into the parade ring for our race only. Brilliant! I will have to leave more or less after our Rosie has done her thing because we had made other arrangements for our day but it will be great to meet the four members and the Legends!

I think we knew yesterday would be a bit like shelling peas and as indicated in the Newsletter, those short priced favourites only had to turn up in form and they would win. I know plenty of you were on the acca at 13/1+ so well done you! I just threw a few quid at the first three in a treble and left out ATFISHERSCROSS because I had that niggling doubt about track and going…totally unfounded, weren’t they!

I suppose I had best get straight to this if I have to get to Aintree!

I’m going to start with the Grand National. Because of the changes being made, especially the lowering of the fences (which I feel actually makes it more dangerous because jockeys are less inclined to take it easy), it has meant that the perceived notion that “finding the winner” is impossible, is now true. I used to have very little problem boxing this race off and the year Hedgehunter won I was telling everyone (even the taxi driver that took me to the track that day), that the horse would win doing handsprings. Look back at the last six years and you will find we have had three 33/1 winners of the race. Look back at the 20 years previous and you will see only two such priced horses had won. Coincidence? One of those years was that in which race commentator Malcolm Tomlinson won the Tote Ten To Follow, because he had Red Marauder in his lists and that year the ground was so bad only a couple finished!

Now it’s probably easier to win the Lottery than to produce a definitive selection. You will read a million words about today’s race, from those employed to write them and find so many different selections, all of which are perfectly valid, they’ll give you no clues whatsoever. If you spot up the winner, simply count your lucky stars.

I have rated the race….which is nigh on impossible because I have so little data to work with regarding this kind of race….and the figures for my top six have come out like so:

*ALWAYS WAINING….+9
*ROBERTO GOLDBACK….+9
*SAINT ARE….+7
*BALTHAZAR KING….+/-0
CHICAGO GREY….-7
*JOIN TOGETHER….-11

I do not look outside my top six myself but if you are wondering how the more fancied ones have come out then:

*ON HIS OWN….-19
COLBERT STATION….-37
SEABASS….-40
*CAPPA BLEU….-35
*IMPERIAL COMMANDER….-21
*SUNNYHILLBOY….-21
*TEAFORTHREE….-35

They are the seven fronting the market and the tissue favourite is sitting top of them and 9th best overall.

I will work with my figures but the first thing I’m doing is dropping my top rated. Loves this track but the trip will probably find him out. I’m thinking it’s a big ask for a seven year old to win this race and so, I’m reluctantly dropping SAINT ARE. He is another that loves Aintree though and everything looks right for a huge run. That leaves me with three having the * against there names – ROBERTO GOLDBACK, BALTHAZAR KING and JOIN TOGETHER. I will dutch them, have my 20/80 on the Hobbs horse and play the exotics because it’ll be life changing if I grab that pot!

The rest of today’s Ratings are:

AINTREE 3-25

CANNINGTON BROOK….+9
*PROBLEMA TIC….-4
*PLANET OF SOUND….-5
*DUKE OF LUCCA….-11
*BATTLE GROUP….-19
*STORM SURVIVOR….-21
*RUSSIAN WAR….-26
*MAC AEDA….-31
*BLENHEIM BROOK….-35
*IKORODU ROAD….-40
*BRAVE SPARTACUS….-40
*OPENING BATSMAN….-40
*LOCH BA….-40
TOUR DES CHAMPS….-40
JOHNS SPIRIT….-40
CANTLOW….-40
GARYNELLA….-40
BALLYOLIVER….-40

ADVICE – Did you know that PROBLEMA TIC is unbeaten when racing on good ground? He is 4-4 on it, has won a Bumper at this track, came alive in Spring last year and with first time blinkers applied I’d be mad to think he’ll do anything other than run a big race. If BATTLE GROUP turns up in the same form as that we witnessed a couple of days ago then he’ll be tough to beat but that’s one quirky hoss and what I will be doing is dutching the three below my top rated horse, having my 20/80 PROBLEMA TIC and shuffling my exotics.

NEWCASTLE 1-35

*CHOSEN ONE….-13
*GREENHEAD HIGH….-15
PULL THE PIN….-18
*CHARLES PARNELL….-19
PAVERS STAR….-22
ROY’S LEGACY….-28
DARTRIX….-30
CODE SIX….-40

NEWCASTLE 2-40

*LA BACOUETTEUSE….+5
COME HERE YEW….-6
*MOHAWK RIDGE….-15
*GRACEFUL DESCENT….-16
MISTER BOB….-18
ACTIVATE….-19
LIGHT THE CITY….-19
THECORNISHCOWBOY….-28
BEAT THE SHOWER….-33
GENEROUS DREAM….-39
ROC DE PRINCE….-40

NEWCASTLE 3-15

*TRES CORONAS….+9
*ROCKTHERUNWAY….+3
DOC’S LEGACY….-7
BEAUMONT’S PARTY….-7
ONLY ORSENFOOLSIES….-11
BLADES LAD….-14
MAYBEAGREY….-25
BROCKFIELD….-28
HONEST DEAL….-31

If you watch back the racing from Leicester yesterday you will see for yourselves just why I tend to sit on my hands when it comes to punting flat racing during this month. Run those races again in July or August and you would witness something completely different. Odds on shots tailed off, horses never being put into a race, it’s just not for getting heavily involved in at all. David clearly has his ready to go, which augurs well for 500 Club members and I’ll have news tomorrow of Grandorio, Hiddon Coin and Vital Edition, who looks set to make his racecourse debut in May.

Whilst I’m here….if anyone texts me, e-mails me of asks me via Facebook about Rosie’s chances of winning today, I will have them dipped in boiling oil. It’s a Charity race being run for fun and to raise a few £’s for the Bob Champion Cancer Trust and that’s all. It is most certainly not for betting on!

The rest of the Aintree card and a couple OF INTEREST (which has produced two winning selections from the two advised in the last couple of days).

I’m still anything by convinced that the McCain team are on blob. That swerves me away from getting involved in either UP AND GO in the opener or OVERTURN in the Maghull novices’ Chase at 2-15pm. Both races were easily solved last year as you simply played the Henderson horses and they won 4/9 and 1/7….I would not be getting a re-mortgage to punt either race this year though but would expect both DODGING BULLETS and BAILY GREEN to provide some “fun money” punting enjoyment.

If SOLWHIT turns up wearing his World Hurdle clothes at 2-50pm then he’s impossible to beat. I’ll not even bother trying to spot up one to do that.

SHOTAVODKA did us all a right old turn recently but I’m expecting RANJAAN to give me a run for my 20/80 at 5-10pm and if I bother with the Bumper it’ll probably be another small 20/80 TISTORY.

OF INTEREST

LUCKY PRIZE (Newcastle 2-10) – 20/80
TRIXIE MALONE (Newcastle 3-55) – 20/80
MASH POTATO (Newcastle 5-00pm) – 20/80

Sunday and Monday provide no flat racing but I’ll prepare figures for the jumps meetings taking place on those todays before we get to work on the flat from Tuesday onwards.

Have a great day and the very best of luck if you are punting today

Kindest regards

Ron

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