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Today’s Ratings and Advice 05/04/13

I’m blaming the clocks.

Have you ever had a day when you wish you’d never got out of bed? I had one of those yesterday. Aintree is a meeting I don’t really enjoy that much. that seems almost sacrilegious given it’s on my doorstep and I much prefer NH racing to the flat but April is a month I simply do not trust any formlines, that are relevant, to stand up. Good horses, who have had a long season, simply don’t turn up and run their races.

At least I made someone laugh yesterday. I had suggested the Fox Hunters’ was a race we could simply work with the tissue to squeeze a profit from (usually very true, the 4/1 favourites had won it last year), and I received an e-mail with that line cut and pasted from my text, with the result below it. 100/1, 33/1, 40/1. To be fair, the horse I had selected, who loves to be on the front end, completely missed the start (which, let’s face it, was bedlam). Sam then had to use the horse up to get into a challenging position but then the legs went to jelly and he finished a 15 length eighth. One of those that could have stopped me looking foolish came home 4th but, foolish I looked.

Then we saw First Lieutenant winning his first race in 18 months….and his first Grade 1. Silviniaco Conti didn’t look with a mile the same horse we had seen at Cheltenham, neither did Grandouet and that makes me wonder about Sprinter Sacre today. The nut case that is Kid Cassidy decided yesterday was a day to fizz and watching him going to the start you knew you had left your money behind….but that’s the chance you take with horse like him. The first six home in that race were all double figure prices, the first four 20/1, 20/1, 25/1, 20/1….it’s April.

Why I bothered to even look at Taunton I’ll never know. Can you believe, after everything that has been happening with our ground, that it went good to firm? NH horses are simply not built to run on that (hence I avoid all aspects of summer jumping), and all rated races were rendered totally useless, not least because half of the field in two of those races, were pulled out.

BRING ON THE FLAT!

I’m loathe to even look through today’s cards that involve horses going over obstacles but, I’ll have a squint.

Assumptions:

AINTREE – Jump (Updated:04/04/2013 at 13:37:18)   

GoingNational – Good to Soft, Good in places
Mildmay & Hurdle – Good, Good to Soft in places
(GoingStick: National 6.0 Mildmay 7.0 Hurdle 6.8 on Wednesday at
11:00)

RailsMildmay & Hurdle – all running rail and hurdles are on outside
line, adding approx. 25 yards on Mildmay and 95 yards hurdle
course per circuit
Bends will be moved in each day

Weather-3C o/night, dry.
Thursday – Sunny spells becoming cloudier pm 8C, 0C o/night
Friday – Mainly cloudy, some sunny spells 8C 0C o/night
Saturday – Dry and cloudy, poss’ shower pm 8C

WateringSelective watering all courses to maintain

LEICESTER – Flat (Updated:04/04/2013 at 16:30:36)   

GoingGood to Soft,Soft in places.
(GoingStick: 5.7 on Thursday at 16:00)

StallsStraight-5f centre,6f and 7f stands side.

RailsThere is a false rail from the top of the hill on the back
straight all the way to the winning line increasing all the round
course races by 17 yards.

WeatherDry overnight min temp 0c.Forecast:Thursday- Dry overnight
min temp -1c.Friday-Dry and cold max temp 6c.

OtherPlease note that due to the prolonged cold spell the grass is not
as well established as we would like in particular the national
hunt winter crossing points (4f-5f,1f-Finish line)

SEDGEFIELD – Jump (Updated:04/04/2013 at 07:19:43)   

GoingCHS: GOOD to SOFT
HUR: GOOD (GOOD to SOFT in places)
(GoingStick: 7.0 on Thursday at 07:00)

RailsDivided bends which have all been moved to provide as much
fresh ground as possible. Hurdles on the outside.

WeatherDry and sunny yesterday with a strong breeze and temperature of
8C. Patchy cloud and sunny intervals today but the chance of any
rain has seemed to have dissappeared. Temperatures of 6C forecast
for today and Friday and remaining dry so there may be some
further dry back.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described

AINTREE

No point me even trying to get the likes of MY TENT OR YOURS, DYNASTE or SPRINTER SACRE beaten because, if those three turn up on blob, they win their races….but will they? Not a single one of those races is a betting proposition. Likewise AT FISHERS CROSS. Will this horse be as effective on quicker ground? Rebecca Curtis seems to think he’ll have no problem…but what about the combination of quicker ground and flatter track? I’d not be a punter at 5/4 but, neither would I be a layer!

Then we have the Topham. A great race to watch and it’s been like shelling peas in recent years…all you needed to do was punt ALWAYS WAINING….but he’s not around this year. Rating such races is impossible really. We have 30 horses, most of which will have seen nothing like what they’ll see today and it’s generally safe to work with horses having had a good experience of these fences in the past….although how the changes made to the fences will affect the result, I’ve again no idea. We may find horses that would usually have gone base over apex standing up and then running a solid race but “if, buts and maybes” cannot be factored into a punting strategy.

Having seen the change of ground produce a return to form of the Alan king horses, might I suggest a dutch at 4-50?….MEISTER ECKHART and MANYRIVERSTOCROSS both come here fresh as paint and both having run cracking good races at cheltenham. Of course, it may be both left this race behind them at Prestbury Park but I do know both worked seriously well last weekend and I’ll have a 20/80 MANYRIVERSTOCROSS, in addition to that dutch.

The Bumper….as with the Fox Hunters’ yesterday, the market generally has these right but, I’m not going to say that after what happened yesterday!

I will be mainly watching proceedings from my local track and punting to pennies as and when I do punt.

LEICESTER 4-05

*AERODYNAMIC….+12
MAGIC CITY….+4
KICKINGTHELILLY….+3
*GREENSWARD….-3
*PRESIDENT LINCOLN….-5
*CHISWICK BEY….-15
HAFTOHAF….-15
MUSIC IN THE RAIN….-20

LEICESTER 5-45

*FINAL DELIVERY….+9
*WEST END LAD….-5
ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE….-10
AQUA ARDENS….-20
*SKYFIRE….-25
*GEORGE BENJAMIN….-25
BROWN PETE….-31

SEDGEFIELD 2-45

*SCRIPTWRITER….+9
CARA COURT….+9
*ONIZ TIPTOES….-9
GRANWOOD….-14
*CORKY DANCER….-19
LORD LUSO….-22
PEGASUS PRINCE….-23
BALLYMARTIN KING….-24
*ANDY VIC….-25
ILLUSTRATION….-26
SOHCAHTOA….-31
HOAR FROST….-40
SAWPIT SAMBA….-40
BLUE COVE….-40

SEDGEFIELD 3-20

*KING’S CHORISTER….+9
*SHERIFF HALL….-3
APOLSKAPART….-9
CROCO BAY….-15
FORMULATION….-18
IKTIVIEW….-22
NEEDWOOD PARK….-26
TWEEDO PARADISO….-31

SEDGEFIELD 5-05

*MON CHEVALIER….+15
*BHALTAIR….+14
*GRANVILLE ISLAND….+8
*TAHITI PEARL….+8
SCHINKEN OTTO….-3
*BRIDLINGTON BYGONES….-11
*SAWPIT SUPREME….-25
EXOTIC MAN….-30

I myself will not be punting the rated races today for reasons previously stated but the following are OF INTEREST

HIGH TROJA (Leicester 5-15)
MASTER RAJEEM (Sedgefield 4-30)

Have a great day and if you are punting please tread carefully! I’ll be providing a full blow by blow look at the Grand National tomorrow and explaining just what has happened to the race in recent years, that makes it now a minefield for punters.

Kindest regards

Ron

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