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Today’s Ratings and Advice 04/04/13

Sorry these are later than expected but I wanted to run back over a few things regarding Aintree and update my figures to include the *….apologies for not having done so earlier.

Assumptions:

AINTREE – Jump (Updated:04/04/2013 at 06:51:57)   

GoingNational – Good to Soft, Good in places
Mildmay & Hurdle – Good, Good to Soft in places
(GoingStick: National 6.3 Mildmay 6.7 Hurdle 6.9 on Wednesday at
11:00)

RailsMildmay & Hurdle – all running rail and hurdles are on outside
line, adding approx. 25 yards on Mildmay and 95 yards hurdle
course per circuit
Bends will be moved in each day

Weather-3C o/night, dry.
Thursday – Sunny spells becoming cloudier pm 8C, 0C o/night
Friday – Mainly cloudy, some sunny spells 8C 0C o/night
Saturday – Dry and cloudy, poss’ shower pm 8C

WateringSelective watering all courses to maintain

TAUNTON – Jump (Updated:04/04/2013 at 07:01:43)   

GoingGood, Good to Firm in Places
(GoingStick: 7.3 on Tuesday at 15:00)

RailsRail moved on bends adding 76 yds per circuit to the Hurdles
course and reducing the Chase course by 79 yds.

WeatherA dry day with sunny spells forecast and a high of +6C

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described

RED RUM HANDICAP CHASE

*KID CASSIDY….+13
*REBEL REBELLION….+11
*ASTRACAD….+11
*CICERON….+8
*TANKS FOR THAT….+8
ECHO BOB….+3
*OISEAU DE NUIT….+/-0
*TOUBAB….-1
*PIRES….-1
*SILVER ROQUE….-7
*KINGS GREY….-11
DONNAS PALM….-12
*KIE….-12
*VIVA COLONIA….-15
*WEST WITH THE WIND….-23
*ANQUETTA….-23
*NOZIC….-30
*STAGECOACH PEARL….-36

ADVICE – I will simply set up a top three dutch, have a 20/80 KID CASSIDY (can we trust him to run two races alike!!), and tinker with the exotics. My top rated is an equine nutcase that often loses the race during the race itself by pulling it’s brains out. If he settles as well as he did at Cheltenham then he will run a big race for me….I hope.

SILVER CROSS HANDICAP HURDLE

EASTER DAY….+19
*OPEN HEARTED….+13
MANY CLOUDS….+10
DOUBLE ROSS….+9
*BARAFUNDLE….+9
*BATTLE GROUP….+8
*LIENOSUS….+8
*HOLLOW TREE….+7
*SIXTY SOMETHING….+7
JETSON….+7
*WILTON MILAN….+6
*CLOSE HOUSE….+6
BUTHELEZI….+6
ERICHT….+6
ELY BROWN….-2
*BABY SHINE….-5
*HADA MEN….-11
*BALLYBOUGH PAT….-17
*FIRST FANDANGO….-22
*SILVER GYPSY….-30
*CONNECTIVITY….-33
*SENTRY DUTY….-40

ADVICE – Again I’m very happy to play my top three but concerned BARAFUNDLE is winking at me. Dutch those three with a double figure + rating, a 20/80 EASTER DAY and exotics but given the history of this race and it’s ability to throw up a curve ball, staking will be low…unless I’m already miles clear on the day.

TAUNTON 2-10

*DALRYMPLE….-20
ISOLA BELLA….-27
*MY SISTER….-28
UNDERLAY UNDERLAY….-38
DRAWN FREE….-40
QUEEN OF THE WEST….-40
BACH ON TOW….-40
BATHWICK JUNIOR….-40
GOLDEN ACORN….-40
ON THE FEATHER….-40
JIGSAW FINANCIAL….-40
EMERALD GLADE….-40
COMICAL RED….-40

TAUNTON 3-20

*WOOLCOMBE FOLLY….+10
*JUMP CITY….+10
*ALASI….+8
*DOMTALINE….+3
CONSIGLIERE….-2
*HUNT BALL….-7
*FALCON ISLAND….-16

TAUNTON 3-55

*AAIM TO PROSPER….+11
BILLY MERRIOTT….+10
*MONETARY FUND….+5
ROYAL CHARM….-8
*ZAYNAR….-15
*WHO OWNS ME….-16
WATER GARDEN….-18
*VOLADOR….-25
*CUCUMBER RUN….-26
*OGEE….-35
*WEEKEND MILLIONAIR….-36
BENBANE HEAD….-36
MIC’S DELIGHT….-40
FRED THE SHRED….-40
PROMISED WINGS….-40
PAHRE ISLE….-40

TAUNTON 4-30

PALACE JESTER….+14
*PRINCE TOM….+9
*QIANSHAN LEADER….+8
*FINE PARCHMENT….+1
*HOLMWOOD LEGEND….-4
*MIDNIGHT SAIL….-9
*VIOLIN DAVIS….-10
*INSIDE DEALER….-11
SARANDO….-13
*TIME FOR SPRING….-15
*NATAANI….-20
*SONG SUNG BLUE….-23
RICHARD’S SUNDANCE….-24
AS DE FER….-27
BALLYPATRICK….-29

ADVICE – If my figures are right then I’ll be kicking myself because we had an option to purchase my top rated in November and I declined as I felt he would be gone come spring and needed it heavy….a Ffos Las horse only. In one way I hope I’m right, in another I hope I’m wrong. this good ground will surely be totally against him though?

TAUNTON 5-35

*EXTREMELY SO….-13
BEST DIRECTOR….-14
*DRAGON’S DEN….-16
*ARCTIC WATCH….-17
THE FOX’S DECREE….-26
HELIUM….-27
NO LIKEY….-30
SUN QUEST….-32
SPECIAL MATE….-34
I’M A COLLEGE BOY….-34
BACKHOMEINDERRY….-36
SCAMPI BOY….-36
CUSTER OF THE WEST….-37
GREAT KICKER….-40
KHAZIUM….-40
THUNDERING HOME….-40

With this ground now drying out at Taunton I’d be inclined to work only with horses marked * in my top six rated. If more than three, then the three highest rated horses only should be utilised. Staking should be kept minimal.

OF INTEREST

KARINGA DANCER (Taunton 2-45) – straight win

Again apologies for this coming out late but I’m having a head fog this morning….feels like a heavy cold coming on. hopefully some good racing will soon clear that lot up though (that and a Lemsip).

Have a brilliant day

Kindest regards

Ron

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