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Today’s Ratings and advice 31/03/13

I have to be more than happy with how my figures performed yesterday. You had 20 races to work with and we found the winners of those races sitting top of my figures in no fewer than five of them….that’s a 25% strike rate on a Saturday! Those dutching would have found the winners in my top two rated in no fewer than nine of those races.

The prices of my top rated winners were 8/1, 7/1, 6/1, 11/4 and 5/2. Those other winners in my top two were priced 14/1, 7/2, 10/3 and 11/4.

I had one top rated horse beaten 1/2 a length @ 20/1 and two horses in my top two also ran home second @ 25/1 and 16/1.

We should also have had a 16/1 winner of the Lincoln, too.

Absolutely delighted with those results on what was an incredibly busy Saturday for me. My apologies again for not getting the Newsletter out before 10-30am but I’m sure, once you saw it, you would have understood why that was.

Just look back through each race and see for yourself how incredibly accurate they were and for so early in the flat season it really does augur well for the months to come.

MUSSELBURGH 3-35

*GREELEYS LOVE….+10
KHELMAN….+5
FANTACISE….-7
FRASERBURGH….-8
NEWSTEAD ABBEY….-19
PENNY ROSE….-25
LONDON CITIZEN….-30
PURE EXCELLENCE….-31
HIDDON COIN….-34
CARRY ON SYDNEY….-40

This is a three year old handicap and the horse bottom rated is there because he only has three runs on the board. I do not usually work on these races because the figures will always be unreliable due to the lack of information available to me but what it does show is a genuine figure for our horse I’m afraid. As explained, he is taking a serious jump in grade and a step up in trip. Factor in he has never raced right handed and his only turf win to date has come on genuine good ground and you sense he’s on one of those missions only Tom Cruise can contemplate. If he places in this I’ll be absolutely over the moon.
GREELEYS LOVE just keeps winking, and winking, and winking at me.

RESULT – I have never been more delighted to be so wrong! The 500 Club members should be absolutely delighted with their horse!

DONCASTER 1-20

*COLONEL MAK….+3
*THUNDERBALL….-6 – WON 14/1
FAST SHOT….-9
*SPINATRIX….-17 – 2ND 12/1
*IMPERIAL DJAY….-18
FARLOW….-22
KING OF JAZZ….-28
*JAMAICAN BOLT….-30
ALEJANDRO….-30
ANCIENT CROSS….-31
TRADE SECRET….-32
WEST LEAKE DIMAN….-33
SHROPSHIRE….-33
ALL OR NOTHIN….-39
ANOTHER WISE KID….-40
MASS RALLY….-40
CHUNKY DIAMOND….-40
CHOOSEDAY….-40

ADVICE – High numbers best here, I hope. My top rated, who won this at 33/1 last year and he’s sited to run very well again in 15. Over six here I don’t fancy low so my second best looks set to struggle, as does SPINATRIX and IMPERIAL DJAY. I might just have a little e.w. on my top one, for interest.

RESULT – I called the draw completely wrong I’m afraid but for sure, not a lot wrong with my figures!

DONCASTER 1-55

*YOJIMBO….+20 – 6TH 12/1
PATRIOTIC….+15 – 4TH 11/1
*LAS VERGLAS STAR….+10
HAAF A SIXPENCE….+3 – 3RD 12/1
*EXTRATERRESTRIAL….+2
*NAMEITWHATYOULIKE….+2
*FROG HOLLOW….-8
*MYBOYALFIE….-9
*DUBAI HILLS….-12
*MR SPIGGOTT….-12
*SATANIC BEAT….-13
GARDE COTIERE….-16
KING OF EDEN….-21
DOCOFTHEBAY….-22
GAUL WOOD….-27
DAY OF THE EAGLE….-28
BOOTS AND SPURS….-32
BARREN BROOK….-33
EDUCATE….-40
OCEAN TEMPEST….-40

ADVICE – High again, please but this time low will be closer…it’s middle I do not want. My numbers suggest a big run from my top one, if it’s fit enough to do himself justice….but therein lies the question! I might, just might, dutch rated horses 1 & 5 and see what happens.

RESULT – With three of the first six home in my top six and with my calling the draw right….even if I missed the winner by some distance….I have to be happy at this stage of the season.

DONCASTER 3-05

STRICTLY SILVER….+14 – 8TH 8/1
*JACK’S REVENGE….+12 – 5TH 16/1
GLADYS’ GAL….+11
*MAJESTIC MYLES….+9 – 7TH 33/1
*CHAPTER SEVEN….+8 – 6TH 12/1
*CAPAILL LIATH….+4
*LEVITATE….+4 – WON 20/1
LAHAAG….+2
*SWIFTLY DONE….-2
ESHTIBAAK….-2
*CAPTAIN BERTIE….-3
*MEMORY CLOTH….-4
BRAE HILL….-8
HIT THE JACKPOT….-8
*JUSTONEFORTHEROAD….-8
*MUFFIN MCLEAY….-10
*CHOSEN CHARACTER….-11
*GLOBAL VILLAGE….-11
ANDERIEGO….-17
BANNUANAHEIREANN….-19
PRINCE OF JOHANNE….-26
DUBAI DYNAMO….-26

ADVICE – I’m looking at this race in exactly the same way as that previous one. I prefer high over low and see middle wondering what the heck to do. My top rated is drawn nice but…ground concerns. JACK’S REVENGE looks a play and I’ll go small 20/80 and, happy as I am to play high drawn, a dutch rated horses 2, 5 and 6.

RESULT – I have to absolutely delighted with my figures for this race….and my decision making. My top rated couldn’t win on that ground but I suggest you watch this race again and see how unlucky my selection, JACK’S REVENGE, was. He has finished 5th absolutely tanking after having to wait for a break and is a winner in waiting. For sure, he goes in my Notebook section on the website!

The top five horses having the * next to their names finished 1st, 5th, 6th and 7th….and they were in my top seven rated horses.

DONCASTER 4-15

*NOGUCHI….+3 – 5TH 8/1
*THE LOCK MASTER….-9 – 3RD 13/2
*BROCKFIELD….-12
*SNOW TROOPER….-13 – 2ND 9/2
*PROPHESY….-16 – 4TH 8/1
*CUFFLINK….-25
EASTERN DESTINY….-26
ASKAUD….-27
MAVEN….-31
AMAZE….-34
MUSNAD….-40

RESULT – 2ND, 3RD, 4TH and 5TH in my top five….I am so looking forward to getting stuck in this summer!

DONCASTER 4-50

*HILLVIEW BOY….+9 – 3RD 6/1
*CARRAGOLD….-2
CANARY WHARF….-12
*KIWI BAY….-18 – 6TH 33/1
*SEATTLE DRIVE….-20 – 5TH 20/1
DOCS LEGACY….-21 – WON 7/2
STAR LAHIB….-27
INDEPUB….-31
GRAN MAESTRO….-31
THE FUN CRUSHER….-40

RESULT – Again extremely happy with my figures.

MUSSELBURGH 2-25

*OLDJOESAID….+9 – WON 8/1
LUPIN POOTER….+9
EXCEL BOLT….+4
*BONNIE CHARLIE….+3
GANDALAK….+1
MAPPIN TIME….-1
*GO GO GREEN….-2
ALASKAN BULLET….-16
*THIRTEEN SHIVERS….-17
CADEAUX PEARL….-26

ADVICE – OLDJOESAID has draw and going right…if I’m right. A 20/80 to pennies.

RESULT – Terrific result and, I actually punted it, too!

MUSSELBURGH 4-10

PLATINUM….+13 – NR
*AD VALUE….+9 – 6TH 10/3
FULL SPEED….+9 – WON 11/4
*FORREST FLYER….-9 – 4th 20/1
MASON HINDMARSH….-17 – NR
AZERODEGREE….-21 – 3RD 33/1
ACTIVATE….-23 – 2ND 2/1
HAWDYERWHEESHT….-29 – 5TH 6/1
OSTENTATION….-36
MAJOR ERADICATOR….-36

RESULT – The winner again in my top “two” and the “top six” rated that ran were the first six past the post.

MUSSELBURGH 4-45

*GALICIAN….+10 – 3RD 5/2
*HI THERE….+9 – WON 7/2
*KINGSWINFORD….+8
*SHESASTAR….+6
*RASAMAN….-3
*KLYNCH….-4
LAFFAN….-6
VERSE OF LOVE….-16
CHOKIDAR….-26

ADVICE – The play here will be a top two dutch, 20/80 GALICIAN and an exotic.

RESULT – The one thing we can take for granted right now is that, irrespective of whether or not his horses are the best in the race, Richard Fahey has his very well forward.

MUSSELBURGH 5-15

LOST IN PARIS….+8 – NR
*ROTHESAY CHANCER….+8 – 3RD 8/1
*INGLEBY STAR….+8
*MASTER ROONEY….-3
FLASH CITY….-4
JEDWARD….-6
MOVE IN TIME….-7
COME ON DAVE….-17
CRIMSON KNOT….-23
BASSETT ROAD….-23

ADVICE – ROTHESAY CHANCER will do for a 20/80. INGLEBY STAR looks to have things “right” too but I’ll leave it at that.

I tend to swerve anything but the top class NH racing at this time of year and will not be getting involved personally at any of the three meetings being run today.

RESULT – All three races I bet on here produced profits this afternoon, the sole play here running home in 3rd.

HAYDOCK 2-05

BORIS THE BLADE….+13
*EMPROR CONCERTO….+10 – 6TH 18/1
*YOU KNOW YOURSELF….+5
*KING FONTAINE….+1 – 2ND 13/2
*MONSIEUR CADOU….-9 – WON 10/1
*JURISDICTION….-17
*HANDY ANDY….-18 – 3RD 7/2
*POSH BIRD….-24
*ABNAKI….-27
CAPTAIN AMERICO….-37
*CIRCUS OF DREAMS….-40
RHUM….-40

RESULT – Four of the first six home in the top six runners having the * next to their names

HAYDOCK 2-40

VELOCE….+9 – NR
FLEET DAWN….-3 – WON 7/1
SOFTSONG….-6
MASTER BENJAMIN….-10 – 2ND 11/1
*ROMEO AMERICO….-12
QUADDICK LAKE….-16 – 4TH 14/1
FLAMING CHARMER….-17
LANDSCAPE….-19
LEADER OF THE GANG….-20
CAPELLANUS….-29
SPANISH ARCH….-30
COVERHOLDER….-35
SPIEKEROOG….-37
ULTIMATE….-38
MUBROOK….-38
LIFETIME….-38
ROMAN FLIGHT….-40
CLOUDY BOB….-40
WHITE FUSION….-40
FARMER MATT….-40

RESULT – Top rated winner, three of the first four home in my top five rated, I’d suggest that maybe those that punted this did ok?

HAYDOCK 3-15

*SYDNEY PAGET….+11
*BOCCIANI….+10 – 5TH 33/1
*CEDRE BLEU….+9 – WON 10/1
*CLOUDY TOO….+8 – 3RD 12/1
TRIPTICO….+1 – 4TH 20/1
*SHOEGAZER….-7
*TONY STAR….-8
*PIGEON ISLAND….-15
*BRUNSWICK GOLD….-20
OHIO GOLD….-40
PEPITE ROSE….-40
INOOGOO….-40

RESULT – May I respectively say the figures here were simply awesome?

HAYDOCK 3-50

*NOBLE LEGEND….+14 – WON 6/1
SIMONSIDE….+11
*PATSY FINNEGAN….+9 – 2ND 10/1
KING’S GRACE….+4
*RYDALIS….-6
ANDREO BAMBALEO….-14
*REGINALDINHO….-19
FRONTIER DANCER….-25
LITTLE CHIP….-34
*CHRISTOPHER WREN….-35
FRONTIER SPIRIT….-35
*ROUGE ET BLANC….-35
SIR FRANK….-38
BALINROAB….-40
THE BIG FREEZE….-40
NO NO BINGO….-40

RESULT – At this point and, having seen how well my numbers were performing, I split a few quid across this one, dutch, 20/80 my top one and exotics and was rewarded for keeping the faith. I hope a few did likewise!

NEWTON ABBOT 2-10

*HEAVENSTOWN….+8 – 2ND 20/1
*CALL ME SIR….-7
DECIMUS….-9 – WON 85/40
RIOR….-16 – 3RD 14/1
*DUNE SHINE….-22
*TOLKEINS TANGO….-24
*LAFLAMMEDEGLORIE….-33
LOST LEGEND….-35
BRODY BLEU….-35
UNION SAINT….-35
SAMINGLORY….-40
WALLS WAY….-40

RESULT – The first three home in my top four and oh so close to a seriously nice top rated 20/1 shot….done just half a length.

NEWTON ABBOT 2-45

*TEN FIRES….+10
*JOAACI….+9 – 2ND 25/1
*JUPITER REX….-8 – WON 8/13
*CYPRESS GROVE….-15
FAIRWOOD MASSINI….-20
PLINY….-20

NEWTON ABBOT 5-05

ROYAL CHATELIER….+14 – NR
MINELLA RANGER….-7 – WON 11/4
ROYBUOY….-10
PETIE MCSWEETIE….-16
GLEANNACREIM….-18
BACKSTREET BILLY….-22

RESULT – Yet another top rated winner….the hard work yesterday morning really did pay off!

CARLISLE 3-45

*HUMBIE….+10 – WON 5/2
*DOUGLAS JULIAN….+8
PREMIER SAGAS….+8
*DEVOTION TO DUTY….+5
*TYRONE HOUSE….-2
*WILLIE HALL….-6
*ZITENKA….-8
*FRENCH TIES….-15
NETMINDER….-17
*RUDEMEISTER….-20

RESULT – And yet ANOTHER top rated winner!

CARLISLE 4-20

*HANNAH JACQUES….+11
*HURRABORU….-1 – 2ND 16/1
*SOLIS….-2 – 3RD 8/1
*FLYING DOCTOR….-13
FORTY CROWN….-14
DARLINGTON COUNTY….-17
*PENA DORADA….-19
GULF PUNCH….-22
*PURCELL’S BRIDGE….-25
*GWLADYS STREET….-25
MARY MILAN….-26
MILANO MAGIC….-29
FIDDLERS REEL….-38
TROUBLE IN PARIS….-40

RESULT – The wheels here were going to come off sometime but the figures still performed admirably.

CARLISLE 4-55

*BOB’S DREAM….+8
*QUITE THE MAN….-2 – WON 10/3
RISKIER….-3
SADDLE PACK….-11
*CLASSICAL MIST….-15
SERGEANT PINK….-18
CASTLELAWN….-25
SUPRISE VENDOR….-33
ON GOSSAMER WINGS….-33
GLEANN NA NDOCHAIS….-40
TWENTYPOUNDLUCK….-40

RESULT – Winner in my top pair so what’s not to like?

OF INTEREST

SKYE’S THE LIMIT (Musselburgh 1-50) – 20/80

RESULT – 2ND 4/1….we didn’t really expect to beat the odds on shot but 2nd and another that will pay to punt next time up.

TODAY

Musselburgh and two NH meetings to work with and, whilst I will be working with Aintree and the Grand National, that’s it for the 2012/2013 NH season. As mentioned yesterday though, if you ever require an NH race rating, please let me know and I will get that done for you.

Assumptions:

MUSSELBURGH – Flat (Updated:31/03/2013 at 06:55:08)
Going
Good to Soft, Soft in Places
(GoingStick: 5.9 on Sunday at 06:45)

Stalls
5f and 2m Stands side

Weather
Dry overnight -2 grass frost
Forecast: Bright Clear Day with long spells of Sun +6

Other
COC Harriet Graham 07843 380401
Twitter harrietgraham1
Stable bookings musselburghstables@gmail.com

PLUMPTON – Jump (Updated:31/03/2013 at 07:03:50)
Going
Good to Soft
(GoingStick: 5.7 Hurdle 5.6 Chase on Friday at 07:30)

Weather
Dry overnight with a -4C frost at dawn, due to peak today
around +6C with sunshine.

TOWCESTER – Jump (Updated:30/03/2013 at 11:27:41)
Going
Soft

Rails
Hurdle Course on inside line

Weather
Minor areas of snow cover disappearing.
Course currently raceable, Temp +5c

Inspections
No Inspections planned

* indicates horses having previously won on the going as currently described

MUSSELBURGH 2-20

FLIPPING….-12
*COSMIC MOON….-14
CHEERS FOR THEA….-18
SARTINGO….-23
*JORDAURA….-23
TITUS BOLT….-27
BANDY BOB….-29
REMEBER ROCKY….-39
OSTENTATION….-40
MAJOR ERADICATOR….-40
ONE MILLION….-40

ADVICE – One of only two in here with winning form on good to soft, trained by the highest flying trainer in town, Richard Fahey, I will just have a 20/80 COSMIC MOON.

MUSSELBURGH 2-50

*RIO COBOLO….+8
NANT SAESON….+/-0
HOPPY’S FLYER….-1
GONINODAETHAT….-2
GLADSOME….-14
DREAM WALKER….-16
OUTLAW TORN….-19
MICHAEL’S NOOK….-20
RISE TO GLORY….-20
CELESTIAL DAWN….-24
MEDAM….-29

ADVICE – The only race today where I perceive the draw matters at all and ideally I want those drawn high onside. My top rated is the only one in here with winning form on today’s ground but, he’s got a low box. I’m thinking that, if I play here, it’ll just be a top three dutch.

MUSSELBURGH 3-50

*MICA MIKA….+9
*LADY KASHAAN….+8
*THE BULL HAYES….+5
*GETABUZZ….-3
*MOIDORE….-15
COSMIC SUN….-17
*PORGY….-18
LOS NADIS….-25
SOLARAS EXHIBITION….-39
NANTON….-40
ANGEL GABRIAL….-40

ADVICE – The top two rated are directly linked to our very own Rosie’s Lady! We raced against my top rated in that Cheltenham Charity race and twice last season, Lady Kashaan beat us into second place so, nice to see them topping my figures, even if that lot means nothing at all in the context of this race. I’ll dutch my top three, have a 20/80 MICA MIKA and exotics to my October Rules levels of staking.

MUSSELBURGH 5-25

PULL THE PIN….-7
*WICKED WILMA….-8
GREENHEAD HIGH….-15
HEADSTIGHT….-21
MISERERE MEI….-29
ROY’S LEGACY….-40
BUSY BIMBO….-40

ADVICE – WICKED WILMA loves this place, is priced attractively (if my figures are right), and I’ll have a playful 20/80 to buttons.

I will only be having a bet on the 4-00 at Plumpton from those below. You can probably trust the numbers but it’s simply that it’s the end of the season and I do not want to be kicking myself for having wasted my shekels.

PLUMPTON 3-00

BALLYMAN….+3
LAJIDAAL….-12
FLUGZEUG….-14
DOHENY BAR….-17
RED ANCHOR….-18
ROSOFF….-31
BETHEHOLYGOBS….-40

PLUMPTON 4-00

*ACT OF KALANISI….+24
*BALDER SUCCES….+17
*RED INCA….+14
*CONSTANT CONTACT….+12
*DARKESTBEFOREDAWN….+12
*COURT MINSTREL….+10
*STONE LIGHT….+3
*HI NOTE….-7
*RONALDO DES MOTTES….-16
HOME RUN….-21
SPECIALAGENT ALFIE….-32
CLOUDY BOB….-35

ADVICE – My fourth best is up for sale….£65k….interested? This is a crackerjack of a race. I’m going to play my top three in usual style – dutch, 20/80 ACT OF KALANISI and exotics. Staking wont be anything higher than low but we’ll see if we cannot squeeze a little profit from it.

TOWCESTER 3-10

*MY VIKING BAY….+4
SEAQUEL….-8
*DIRTY DEAL….-9
VALRENE….-9
ALL ANNALENA….-10
SHROPSHIRELASS….-27
CHILWORTH SCREAMER….-30

TOWCESTER 3-40

*KILVERGAN BOY….-10
*IRISH GUARD….-12
*KILCASCAN….-22
*KEEVERFIELD….-35
*GIDAM GIDAM….-35
*MATMATA DE TENDRON….-35
TOP BENEFIT….-40

OF INTEREST

No mileage in trying to guess whether Fahey or Johnston will take the 3-20 / 4-55 races at Musselburgh and theirs are short enough to do so, to make them unattractive betting propositions.

I’ll just let the rest of it happen today, I think.

Have a great Easter Sunday and the best of luck if you are punting!

Kindest regards

Ron

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