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Today’s Ratings and Advice 20/03/13

Ron RobinsonI think it is very fair to say we have a lull. I doubt it is a coincidence…the rains returning and the very small fields we are seeing again. When we had that recent dry spell it was like an explosion of quadrupeds, all race more or less filled and the numbers of trainers all visiting the same track, even on a weekday, was incredible.

Yesterday just 39 runners competed across the entire Exeter racecard. Today just 45 go to Haydock and 47 race at Warwick. That’s a total of 92 horses across 14 races, an average of less than seven per race. And that’s before any other withdrawals.

Warwick will be run on ground you would not walk your dog on and further rain is forecast.

Just so you know.

Assumptions

HAYDOCK PARK – Jump (Updated:19/03/2013 at 07:49:02)   

GoingSoft
(GoingStick: Chase 5.1; Hurdle 5.0 on Monday at 09:15)Weather29mm of rain between Thursday and Saturday last week. Dry since
Sunday. Forecast about 3mm of rain in wintery showers between
now and racing.

WARWICK
 – Jump (Updated:19/03/2013 at 08:05:09)   
GoingHeavy, Soft in places
(GoingStick: C- 5.3, H- 5.5 on Tuesday at 07:30)Weather14.8mm Sat, 1.6mm Sun, 0.2mm Mon, 0.2mm Tues AM.
Forecast: Chance of showers each day (1-2mm)

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described.

WARWICK 4-05

*THE RED LAIRD….-9
PRIEST ISLAND….-11
HE’S THE DADDY….-12
*MADAME ALLSORTS….-16
*KILLIMORE COTTAGE….-21
ALL FOR CASH….-24
GILDED AGE….-40

ADVICE – My top three rated have the tissue sorted out…in fact my figures virtually mirror exactly how they stack up on the current market. Nothing obtains a + figure but my top rated does have soft ground winning form, is a CD winner and he’s a winner last time up. Against that though is, the fact he’s brittle. It would never be a race you would re-mortgage to play and I’ll just work with my top two…dutch, 20/80 THE RED LAIRD and an exotic.

HAYDOCK 3-45

*SPIEKEROOG….-1
RED INCA….-9
SOFTSONG….-12
KUDU COUNTRY….-15
*WHITE FUSION….-15
ROBBIE….-19
ULTIMATE….-27
ROCKAWANGO….-34

ADVICE – David O’Meara saddles two here and his longer priced one sits top of my figures. That horse has been missing for over a year now but you would have to think his defeat of BOURNE would make him competitive in this. Interesting to note he has booked the top jockey riding at Haydock to sit on top, whilst his shorter priced one has a pilot currently 0-18 all rides here. Interesting to also not that his two are the only ones in here with soft ground winning form. The others have all placed on it but, never quite managed to get their heads in front. Before anyone e-mails me to ask have I spoken to David….nope….he is a trainer of integrity and will never tell you about the chances of another owners horse and, quite right too. If I found out he had told others of Rosie’s chances in january we’d have a horse box waiting to pick it up first this next morning.
Here I will simply play my top two with WHITE FUSION. Dutch, 20/80 SPIEKEROOG and exotics but staking will be seriously low.

HAYDOCK 4-20

*SAFRAN DE COTTE….+10
*MR MOONSHINE….+1
*CHARINGWORTH….-10
MCMURROUGH….-12
*MR SYNTAX….-19
*QUINCY DES PICTONS….-25
SIMPLY WINGS….-30

ADVICE – If you take the formbook literally, SIMPLY WINGS just has to run around to collect…ish. He had a Cheltenham Festival winner a short head back in third when runner up at Exeter recently and that’s not bad on the old CV. However, he has never won above Class 3, looks to be a better horses going right handed and I’ll lay as long as all seven go to post.
My play will concern just my top two…dutch, 20/80 SAFFRAN DE COTTE and an exotic.

OF INTEREST

Had e-mails yesterday asking me if I could locate an AIM every day. Yeah, right. Akin to rocking horse manure, I’m afraid.

The Haydock 2-40 sees a horse, THUNDERSTORM, that has been ridden to win his races in the same fashion that Sergei Bubka used  to break the pole vault world record each time he attended a meet. He would raise the bar a couple of mm each time, break the record and trouser a huge wedge. Very canny. THUNDERSTORM has been ridden very much in that fashion, McCoy looking half animated, just getting the horse up on the line but, in truth, the horse has hardly done a tap.

GRAND EXIT (Warwick 4-35) – straight win

Have a great day and best of luck if you punt

Kindest regards

Ron

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