I not sure how to start this weeks piece off, really.
What I mean is, the Bay Hill is the final real battle for Florida, its over to the boring Texas plains and with skies that look bigger than the land.
The fact that is, this is a “pocket money” tournament for Tiger Woods, the seven times winner. Also, never has a rookie won this title so, it leaves you with a strange approach to selection.
I will say this, he has everything in his favour to win but at 3/1, I say NO big time. This course is commonplace for play-offs and, four player play-offs to boot, too. Suppose Tiger does win via a play-off, your winning bet becomes 5/12 so your fiver stake looks a bit tiny and quite skinny.
So exclude Tiger but firstly, what is it about this course that suits him? Well let’s see. It’s a power play 7500 yards, open lush fairways, Bermuda greens, plenty of flight with the ball, lots of carry, easy par breakers on all 3, 4 and 5 pars but, the hardest one putt holes in golf and, it’s a generous par 72.
So if you are one of the longest, straightest hitters, can putt on greens that pass 12 on the stimp meter, hit the ball high with topspin, break pars all the time and year on year is the one putt champion, then to cap it all its par 72 with 4 par 5`s that could give you -8 on eagle bearing par 5`s per round alone, you might just see my point.
However all is not doom and gloom and there is value here simply because yer man is 3/1,
There are 30 new rookies on tour. Bit of a misnomer that so lets say, shall we, rookies to the full PGAtour….not necessarily to other tours. Things then change a bit.
Next (and most important), is that this week the tour is already 33% over for the year and the players cast their eyes towards the Fedex Cup and where their position is. What, might you ask, is the Fedex Cup? Well, simply put by a layman (such as what I is), it is $35,000,000 worth of expenses. It’s a bit like saying Post Racing has 156 journalists working for it every week, writing pieces and getting paid for their endeavours and then, as a bonus at the end of the year, these journalists get paid further monies depending on how well the public responded to their pieces. Absolutely no different here. The players play, get placed in their respective tournaments and each week they receive credits. These credits are all added up and divided by the $35,000,000 and is then worth $X per credit. Nice work if you can get it.
At this point I would like to bring in my assistants – The Big Puddin and Lumps who, with one voice scream out loud that they pay on average, throughout the PGA, a fee to enter each of their Tournaments and belong to the PGA. On average they pay 30-40% tax on earnings and approximately 30% of income on expenses, getting from place to place each week. Now, that’s an average on winnings and this Cup was designed to reward the best players. For example the Champion get $10,000,000, but he who is ranked at 156 and beyond gets, say “tuppence” by comparison. So naturally everybody tries a little harder as the season goes by, to make sure his expenses are covered, at the very least least. Small omission regarding sponsorship monies donated by Titleist et al, but never mind eh boys
Anyway that’s some points that are worth remembering, and as of this week a new category is added ,relating to the Fedex Cup.
So my four to track this week are:
Brandt Snedeker in the hope that he is fit @ 18/1
Graeme McDowell because this is very much a European style course @22/1
Keegan Bradley, with 13 out of 14 cuts tells me he will stay there till he fails @ 28/1
And Yes “The Big Puddin” – Bo Van Pelt – because he lost 15 places in the Fedex run up by not playing last week and he is off a worthy 80/1
For the same reason but in reverse, Boo Weekley is playing as well as he did in 2009 and he moved up 69 places last week Fedex-wise, back him at an extraordinary 90/1
My next wild card is Peter Hanson, a rookie I agree but he has played Ryder Cup and at 55/1 is value
For 3 rounds Lucas Glover played brilliantly last week and for that he gets another chance so look out Bay Hill! – 125/1
My “if I biff it well I can win” section went well last week, so let`s try again
Graham DeLaet, has been playing very well….just how well we might find out this week – good Value @ 110/1
Finally South Africa`s new sensation George Coetzee. Now I am pretty upset with myself because Georgy boy was number 11 on my list last week and he played magnificently. Let`s hope he has another good week in him @ 80/1
Do I include “Lumps” No, perhaps not but he is not a forgotten hero. One week he will take you by surprise
Good Hunting, good gambling and speak to you when your older
Michel – Jean Caule De Marolan