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Today’s Ratings and Advice 25/02/13

Yesterday again saw those green shoots springing up with the top rated horses, in the main, performing very well. As a barometer they, rather than my own ramblings, are what counts and we can see below the number of winners and placed horses contained within the top six rated horses.

FONTWELL 3-15

*CYPRESS GROVE….+15 – 7TH 13/2
FINANCIAL CLIMATE….+10 – 2ND 7/2 > 2/1
*NO NO BINGO….-2 – 5TH 13/2
*TIME TO THINK….-7 – WON 4/1
PRINCELY HERO….-11 – 4TH 10/1
MEET THE CITICS….-12 – 3RD 16/1
KIND OF EASY….-17
*PLUM PUDDING….-22

THREE TO DUTCH – CYPRESS GROVE, NO NO BINGO, TIME TO THINK
20/80 – CYPRESS GROVE
EXOTICS – CYPRESS GROVE, NO NO BINGO, TIME TO THINK
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Very tempted to run with my figures as the tissue favourite sits second best but, me being totally pedantic, I’m working with the three in my top form with a win on soft. We have plenty of if’s buts and maybes, too. Trip is kinda funky for all but rated horses 5 & 6 but neither has won on soft. Cypress Grove loves Fontwell as actually, does Financial Climate. No No Bingo has also won here though and, whilst we have a couple of P’s to forgive regarding that one, and the trip is an issue, I’ll have him in my dutch. Track craft here is vital and I do like working with those proven….add that ground though and I’m thinking we may have a nice 20/80 in my top one.

FONTWELL 4-50

*INVICTA LAKE….+8 – 2ND 6/1 > 7/2
*KAMBIS….+4 – 4TH 5/1
*FARBREAGA….-2 – NR
PRIEST ISLAND….-13 – F
*MORESTEAD….-16 – 5TH 40/1
*SUN QUEST….-22 – F
*THE BISHOPS BABY….-29
*LAVA LAMP….-34
YA HAFED….-40
BATHCOUNTY….-40
*THUNDERING HOME….-40
ALL ANNALENA….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – INVICTA LAKE, KAMBIS, FARBREAGA
20/80 – INVICTA LAKE
EXOTICS – INVICTA LAKE, KAMBIS, FARBREAGA
LAY – THUNDERING HOME

ADVICE – I’m laying recent winner Thundering Home because, as far as I can see, the only thing he has going for him is the ground. Going left handed, which he will be here, has produced three unplaced efforts from three attempts at it and going right handed has produced two wins and two placed efforts from six attempts. Rated horses 1 & 3 have winning form at this track and will also enjoy underfoot conditions whilst Kambis is trained by the guy sitting top of the trainers table at Fontwell so, given all that, I’m happy to play as indicated.

TOWCESTER 2-50

*MY VIKING BAY….-16 – 6TH 10/1
*AUREATE….-20 – 5TH 25/1 > 16/1
*PRINCE PIPPIN….-28 – 2ND 3/1 > 9/4
COSAVITA….-28 – NR
*FIRST MORNING….-31 – 11TH 20/1
LADY ROMANZA….-34 – 8TH 8/1
CHILBURY HILL….-39
MOUNT WELCOME….-40
NICKY NUTJOB….-40
LODGICIAN….-40
KINGSTON TIGER….-40
KINGS ROAD….-40
CRACK AT DAWN….-40
EMERALD GLADE….-40

ADVICE – this and the 4-00pm race are as bad as they come, really and I’ll either go October Rules or leave them alone. Looking for potential lays, the criteria I use is…tissue favourite, outside my top six rated….that would indicate Chilbury Hill is a lay.

RESULT – Always tricky when a suggested/perceived lay sits seventh best on my numbers and then one above it comes out, putting it in my top six….not an impossible situation to address though.

TOWCESTER 3-25

VALLEY VIEW….+12 – 5TH 8/1
PENSNETT BAY….+11 – 2ND 4/1
*THE SAWYER….+9 – 7TH 10/1
*TOPAZE COLLONGES….-3 – UR
*PYRACANTHA….-4 – 3RD 14/2
SPEEDY BRUERE….-8 – WON 11/2
*ORANG OUTAN….-13
HANDSOME BUDDY….-25
JOIN THE NAVY….-25
FATHER SHINE….-40

ADVICE – Best race here today but full of strange and weird beings. Join The Navy is the horse I suggested you watch during the race it was due to run in recently….but they pulled it out. It will be interesting to see if young Brendan can keep it closer to the pace Not sure track, trip or ground will suit though and I’ll probably just play with those in my top six having the * next to their names – dutch, 20/80 the highest rated and faff with the exotics but as already indicated, only pennies will be used until we see green shoots!

TOWCESTER 4-00

BRAVO RIQUET….+11 – 2ND 12/1
*EARCOMESTHEDREAM….+10 – 4TH 10/1
*WAYWOOD PRINCESS….+8 – PU
TARABELA….-3 – WON 11/2
*HAZY BAY….-10 – 5TH 11/4
*WHATSABILLION….-15 – 12TH 33/1
MIDNIGHT CHOICE….-15
HEEZAGREY….-16
DUNEEN POINT….-19
GO AMWELL….-20
STARLIGHT AIR….-21
TOP BENEFIT….-25
NOUAILHAS….-33
WESTWIRE TOBY….-40
SACCO D’ORO….-40

ADVICE – My top rated won a race here not so long ago run on the worst ground anywhere outside of Ffos Las. My second best would be my main play, if such a thing existed in a race like this. I’m playing exactly the same way I will for that 2-50.

TODAY

Just Plumpton….

PLUMPTON – Jump (Updated:24/02/2013 at 07:59:16)   

 

GoingChase Course: Good to Soft. Hurdle Course: Good to Soft, Soft in
places
(GoingStick: 5.9 Hurdle 6.2 Chase on Sunday at 07:30)

WeatherDry overnight 0C, Forecast: Staying dry +3c today with tonight’s
low around the -1C mark and tomorrow dry and best temp +4C.

OtherFrost protection covers were deployed over the entire racing
surface on Thursday.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described.

PLUMPTON 3-10

BRODY BLEU….+20
*RIGHT STUFF….+15
*MANSHOOR….+9
TORNADO IN MILAN….+3
ENGAI….+3
SIR FREDALOT….-7
JUST BEWARE….-10
IRON DUKE….-22
STAR OF MASSINI….-26
NEMO SPIRIT….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – BRODY BLEU, RIGHT STUFF, MANSHOOR
20/80 – BRODY BLEU
EXOTICS – BRODY BLEU, RIGHT STUFF, MANSHOOR
LAY – STAR OF MASSINI

ADVICE – If I have got this one right then it’s pay day! the thing is, of course, very few of these would be trusted to carry a punt. the only two in the race with winning form (so far), on good to soft sit in my three topping the numbers and the tissue favourite has just once beneath him. He has yet to win a race of any description but his most recent run, his first on good to soft, resulted in a placing. However, I believe he’s best suited to right hand tracks and he’s going left this afternoon. This is only the horses second run for Seamus Mullins and it could be he’s found the key to him….if so, I lose on all fronts.

PLUMPTON 4-10

*ROYAL KICKS….+1
*STOP THE SHOW….+/-0
*ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES….-4
INEEDANAME….-12
CHAMPION VERSIONS….-23
DESTINED FOR FAME….-32
HERO’S CALL….-33
BUDSSON….-37
ACOSTA….-34
RED ANCHOR….-39

THREE TO DUTCH – ROYAL KICKS, STOP THE SHOW, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES
20/80 – ROYAL KICKS
EXOTICS – ROYAL KICKS, STOP THE SHOW, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES
LAY – RED ANCHOR

ADVICE – The very short priced favourite sits rock bottom of my numbers and I have to lay it. The problem is, everything in this race is seriously dodgy and he does at least come into this race off the back of a win. the scenario today though could hardly be more different. That race won was achieved on heavy ground, it was the horses first ever win, only three completed the race and he was the 20/1 rag. Today he is up in trip, on quicker ground and I will take him on. All bets on this event though will be to coppers.

PLUMPTON 4-40

*ROMNEY MARSH….+2
MIDNIGHT LIRA….-7
*LITTLE ROXY….-12
LADY FROM GENEVA….-25
OLD DREAMS….-33
BRUNETTE’SONLY….-34
*PETRACHICK….-35
MARIE DEJA LA….-40
JORDAN….-40
EGRETTA ISLAND….-40
THE SAUCY SNIPE….-40
MIDNIGHT BELLE….-40
SOUTHWAY QUEEN….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – ROMNEY MARSH, MIDNIGHT LIRA, LITTLE ROXY
20/80 – ROMNEY MARSH
EXOTICS – ROMNEY MARSH, MIDNIGHT LIRA, LITTLE ROXY
LAY – MIDNIGHT BELLE

ADVICE – Another tissue favourite so far down on the ratings they’d get the bends coming up to quick! Any form of any note has come going right handed, four attempts going left were abject failures. It could be she’ll improve for the better ground but, she’ll need to and I’d much rather have a horse with CD winning form in the book, twice the price, a winner on good to soft, running for my shekels. Romney Marsh has won or placed on six of the 16 races she has run here and whilst that win on good to soft has probably faded from her memory, it’s in the book. not a race you would be looking to play heavily but hopefully a profit to be squeezed from it.

OF INTEREST

OURMANMASSINI (2-10 Plumpton) – 20/80

Today the work starts on branding the new websites. By Friday we hope to have them live and you will have a superb Classified ads site to utilise plus, a nice shiny new Forum.

Tomorrow the office will be empty from the moment I send out the Newsletter because we are off to see the Duke Of Marmalade filly we hope to sign off for you. If I like her and she passes inspections, then 500 Club members really should have something to look forward to this coming flat season. If you are currently a Site Member and would like to upgrade to 500 Club and be part of it all, please e-mail Paul.

Have a great day and best of luck if you are punting

Kindest regards

Ron

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