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Today’s Ratings and Advice 21/02/13

Again, apologies for this going out so late but that was less than funny this morning and I feel like I still have something underneath my upper eye lid on my right eye giving me serious grief! I’m actually wearing sunglasses to put this Newsletter together as even a dim light has the eye streaming.

Anyway, enough moaning. I want to first tell you of the most interesting horse running today. BERKELEY AVENUE, 4-10 Sedgefield. It’s a seven runner Bumper, paying £1559.52 to the winner but, this should have been a 500 Club horse. A few months ago Brendan Powell and I were negotiating the purchase of this one from Tor Sturgis, who was running the horse under the name of its current trainer, Warren Greatrex. She was gong back to Argentina and wanted to sell all of her horses and we were offered this one for £15k. Brendan told me to watch the run at Lingfield and get back to him if I was interested. I was. Noel Fehily, who rode that day, advised the horse would be a steal at £15k and Brendan and I agreed he price. He was supposed to be going to have the horse vetted next day but Warren advised Tor he wanted to keep it in his yard and she gave him the rest of the week to find a buyer within his yard, if he could. It appears he bought it himself, as the horse still runs in his name.

We didn’t get this one and I think it’s a shame as he’ll make a wonderful dual purpose horse. Today Warren has booked AP to ride and it’s going to be mighty interesting to see how he gets on. Half of me wants to see him win head in chest, half of me wants to come away after the race thinking we saved £15k….I’ll not part with a penny on the race but like I say, very interesting.

ASSUMPTIONS:

HUNTINGDON – SOFT
AYR – SOFT (THIRD INSPECTION PLANNED FOR 11-30AM)
SEDGEFIELD – SOFT, GOOD TO SOFT IN PLACES

* INDICATES HORSES HAVING WON PREVIOUSLY ON THE GOING AS CURRENTLY DESCRIBED

HUNTINGDON 2-30

*MR MUDDLE….+14
GREY MISSILE….+9
PRINCE BUSTER….+4
*DENALI HIGHWAY….+3
OSCAR DAVY….-2
MASTER MILAN….-9
*CRUCHAIN….-15
*MENTALIST….-23
*TAKE OF SHOC’S….-32
SIR FRANK….-40
WHISPERING JACK….-40
ARCTIC WATCH….-40
JOIN THE NAVY….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – MR MUDDLE, GREY MISSILE, DENALI HIGHWAY
20/80 – MR MUDDLE
EXOTICS – MR MUDDLE, GREY MISSILE, DENALI HIGHWAY
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – The horse holding up the rest on my figures is the one I’m most interested in. Not because I’m suggesting it’s worth a bet but because of the way it has been ridden the last twice…once it worked, once it palpably failed. Watch it, you’ll see what I mean. Low staking race under any circumstances because everything running would have a Post Racing squiggle, were there such a thing.

HUNTINGDON 5-00

*WILLIAM HOGARTH….+17
GENERAL ROSS….+10
*AWARD WINNER….+10
MAJORICA KING….+7
*COUNTY ZEN….-11
LOST IN NEWYORK….-20
SEE YOU JACK….-20
BALLYMOAT….-22
CRYSTAL SWING….-34
RIVER PURPLE….-35
CALL IT ON….-40
CRESCENT BEACH….-40
BELLOSGUARDO….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – WILLIAM HOGARTH, AWARD WINNER, COUNTY ZEN
20/80 – AWARD WINNER
EXOTICS – WILLIAM HOGARTH, AWARD WINNER, COUNTY ZEN
LAY – BALLYMOAT

ADVICE – Another race in which staking on all fronts would be best kept to minimal. Only three have previously prevailed when encountering soft ground, only one of that trio has won over this kind of trip and it’s a conundrum of largish proportions. I’m laying the tissue favourite because it has yet to win a race of any description, is unplaced in two previous attempts at the distance, the one attempt going right handed resulted in another unplaced effort and if he does manage to win, it’s simply indicative of how bad this race is.

AYR 2-50

*MERRYDOWN….+4
*SEVEN IS LUCKY….+1
*POLITICAL PADDY….-5
*MAKHZOON….-12
*DUNDOCK….-15
SPIRIT OF A NATION….-23
YOUR BUSY….-40

AYR 4-20

*THE TRACEY SHUFFLE….+11
*EMBSAY CRAG….+9
*ROCKAWANGO….-8
*LADY BLUESKY….-15
SIMPLY NED….-22
STAR OF ARAGON….-40

In both cases here, any decision to punt will only be made once I’m 100% sure of what they race on. If a heavy frost has gotten into the ground it’ll become very cloying once it thaws and will ride very testing.

SEDGEFIELD 3-10

*SOUDAIN….+10
FRONTIER BOY….-9
CRAFTI BOOKIE….-16
HEEZ A STEEL….-18
ANGEL SUN….-19
JURISDICTION….-24
CALL ME MULLIGAN….-26
TIM THE CHAIR….-40

ADVICE – I will simply have me a straight win my top rated. The only runner in the field with winning form on soft and has won over further so, I’m less concerned about the trip had he only ever won over shorter. Not a great race and staking levels will reflect that but I’m happy with my numbers.

SEDGEFIELD 3-40

LEITH WALK….+11
MY FLORA….+10
PHASE SHIFT….+9
*SPARKLING HAND….+8
*UMADACHAR….-3
ZEFOOHA….-12
*WHEYAYE….-16
*VINETTA….-23
*KINDLY NOTE….-25

ADVICE – None of my top three has yet won on soft….PHASE SHIFT yet to win and unplaced on both attempts on soft, MY FLORA only won on good and my top rated, whilst going her preferred way around, has managed just two wins from 24 attempts over hurdles. I’m going to dutch rated horses 4 & 5, faff about with a teedly exotic and may indulge in a small 20/80 SPARKLING HAND but my stakes will not get the trading rooms running for cover.

AYR 4-40

*DOMOLY….+8
*TWICE LUCKY….+8
REASONABLE FORCE….-2
ANCIENT TIMES….-13
MAN OF PRINCIPLES….-16
*SAM PATCH….-16
PEAK SEASONS….-26
MYSTIFIED….-40

ADVICE – Two clear on my figures. both having won on soft, it’s a dutch, a 20/80 DOMOLY and an exotic….SAM PATCH in for a tricast if I can summon an urge.

AYR 5-10

*PAMAK D’AIRY….-2
*OVERLAW….-11
VARDAS SUPREME….-17
ON GOSSAMER WINGS….-19
TURF TRIVIA….-19
NO WAY HOZAY….-22
*RED ROCK….-25
TOPO GIGIO….-40

ADVICE – Emma Lavelle has sent three here today….not sure she has ever had a runner at Sedgefield before….and all three are ridden by a 7lb claimer who has never ridden here before. Just thought I’d mention it. Mighty low staking here as my top pair are about as trustworthy as the 639 that park their backsides in the House Of Commons.

OF INTEREST

DOYLY CARTE (Sedgefield 2-10) – straight win
TETLAMI (Huntingdon 3-00) – straight win
KLIMURVY (Huntingdon 3-30) – 20/80
VINTAGE VIXON (Huntingdon 4-00) – 20/80

Again, many apologies for this coming out so late but it really was unavoidable.

Have a great day but please bear in mind the text of the first Newsletter today….this could be very scary this afternoon!

Kindest regards

Ron

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