More poor decision making yesterday and whilst the confidence in the game itself is coming back, I’m looking closely at me! Why did I opt not to dutch at 4-00, when it was quite clear it was a two horse race on ratings? Dunno.
A couple of good spots in the OF INTEREST as two of the three selected in that section won for me, MIXOLOGIST 9/2 > 7/2 and DANCE OF TIME 15/8 > 11/8 and it was no surprise to me to see everything Southwell based outperform everything Carlisle based….that ground up there was seriously hard work. That poor beast I lumbered with a selection in the opener needs it no worse than soft if what I was watching is right and hopefully that’s only money lent.
My figures themselves were not half bad. As you know, once I’ve compiled my numbers it’s the top six horses I am looking at for my winners and if we look at carlisle yesterday this is what we find….
*RENOYR….-3 – 2ND 9/4
*YESYOUCAN….-12 – WON 11/4
THREE TO DUTCH – VELOCE, COOL BARANCA, RENOYR
20/80 – VELOCE
EXOTICS – VELOCE, COOL BARANCA, RENOYR
LAY – NONE
ADVICE – More than happy with my figures and if the winner is outside my top four I’ll take up knitting. VELOCE is surely still on an upward curve and I’m happy to punt as above. Obviously we have the trip to consider but with just rated horses 4 & 5 previously successful over this distance it’s probably a sensible option to drop COOL BARANCA and bring in YESYOUCAN…but if I was sensible some of Saturday’s decisions would not have been made!!
*MY BOY PADDY….+9
*SYDNEY PAGET….+9 – 2ND 5/1
*EMPEROR’S CHOICE….+8 – WON 15/8
YOU KNOW YOURSELF….-35
THREE TO DUTCH – ROSENEATH, MARKADAM, MY BOY PADDY
20/80 – ROSENEATH
EXOTICS – ROSENEATH, MARKADAM, MY BOY PADDY
LAY – NONE
ADVICE – Wonderful race for a Monday. We have a top rated horse coming back off an absence bordering on a year but, he’s best fresh and he’ll be right up there with paint in that respect today. Obviously I need insurance and that’s where the dutch comes in. Again the trip is a mystery for many here including MARKADAM but he’s looked an improver recently and I’m happy to have him onside. Looking forward to this one!
*OVERLADY….-5 – 3RD 18/1
*BILLY CUCKOO….-7 – WON 13/2
WHAT A DREAM….-14 – 2ND 10/1
BOBBLE HAT BOB….-15
GLEANN NA NDOCHAIS….-34
FULL OF JOY….-40
THREE TO DUTCH – CAMDEN GEORGE, AREMDANDDANGEROUS, ET MAINTENANT
20/80 – ARMEDANDDANGEROUS
EXOTICS – CAMDEN GEORGE, ARMEDANDDANGEROUS, ET MAINTENANT
LAY – NONE
ADVICE – Another superbly competitive race….this is a seriously good card for a Monday. Logic suggests my second highest rated horse is most likely to succeed as my top one has been away even longer than that previous top rated horse. ARMEDANDDANGEROUS certainly has everything in his favour and i’m hopeful of drawing a profit from this one.
*NOWURHURLIN….+10 – 3RD 7/2
IMJOEKING….-2 – 2ND 6/4
MY IDEA….-16 – WON 12/1
ADVICE – I’m simply pinning my play on two things here….my figures are right and, the only horse in here with winning form on soft is….my top rated. I’ll just have a 20/80 and leave it at that….the winner will be in my top pair though so, toss that cooing at your end!
The figures are only half the battle really. once compiled it’s then the fun begins, looking through those top six for my play. Yesterday I opted to simply work with them as they had fallen and it cost me.
Taunton today rides heavy and of the 62 horses taking to the track there this afternoon, only three has produced winning form on it. Two of them run in the 3-40, a six runner event. Quite simply, it’s not racing for betting on. You require guesswork and if anyone sends you messages advising they have certain winners there, ignore them. That doesn’t mean to say they wont actually win but until these horses today have won on heavy, they haven’t. I’m not about to put down my hard-earned guessing whether I’m right or not.
TAUNTON – HEAVY
WETHERBY – SOFT
* INDICATES HORSES WITH WINNING FORM ON THE GOING AS CURRENTLY DESCRIBED.
LEAC AN SCAIL….-25
ADVICE – Top two dutch, 20/80 AGGLESTONE ROCK and reverse an exotic. Possibly the trip will scupper my top rated but F’m thinking FORTY CROWN will need further and it’s all part of the conundrum. DAWN RIDE has plenty going for it. track, trip and going spot on but I’ll work with the younger horses and hope they can keep the crusty at bay.
THE LAST BRIDGE….-40
JIM JOB JONES….-40
ADVICE – Quite simply a waste of my time. I would not punt this if you put electrodes in places you shouldn’t put electrodes, and threatened to pull the switch if I refused to bet.
CHESIL BEACH BOY….-40
ADVICE – Only two of these has winning form on heavy so, dutch, 20/80 MEGANISI and en exotic but staking will hardly register.
NO THROUGH ROAD….-40
MAN OF LEISURE….-40
MY FRIEND RIQUET….-40
SPIRIT OF LAKE….-40
ADVICE – I refer you the comments made directly beneath that 2-30 race here. This is a shocker….pun very much intended.
Obviously nowt at Taunton!
You might see a Cheltenham winner at Wetherby. WHISPERING GALLERY is entered in several of the big novice events but still also holds an entry in the World Hurdle. He should dot up at 3-50 but he’ll not be a working mans price.
I would not have a bet in the opening race there using stolen money but i’ll have a 20/80 WESTON LODGE at 2-10
NO SECRETS at 3-15 is a straight win play but probably the most interesting horse running here this afternoon goes in the bumper at 5-00. WILLPOWER cost 280,000euros and his trainer, Mark Johnston, has opted to lob him into a Wetherby Bumper, and coaxed Robert Thornton here for just this one ride. Initeresting with a capital I….but I’ll just watch to see how he gets on, rather than part with shekels guessing whether or not he’ll live up to that price tag.
Have a great day and best of luck if you punt.