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Today’s ratings and advice 16/02/13

What a terrific day all round!

A nice 14/1 winner deciphered from that Sandown rated race, the decision to get involved in laying SPECIAL ROBON proven absolutely bang on as that favourite was the first horse beaten in the one I worked on at Fakenham, two of the four OF INTEREST selections winning, Rosie running a cracker to come home second to the Mark Johnston hot pot in her race at Wolverhampton and…the sun shone for most of the day. Rosie added another decent wedge to that Charity pot, too whilst proving Class 5 is well within her compass and a win beckons! The Racing Post Analysis reads, “travelled supremely well but didn’t have the finishing effort of the winner. After a couple of wins in lowly company, she’s proving that she’s up to this class and has just run into one”….a perfect summing up and it’s all roads leading to Cheltenham now….although speaking to David last night, he may be looking for something in between.

Absolutely perfect oh, and we got everything in place regarding the two new websites that have been added to the fold, too. They will go live a week next Friday. I hope plenty of you get involved in the new forum, which will have a 500 Club Lounge incorporated and, the Classified ads website will offer both 500 Club and Site members a 100% free to use facility for selling everything and anything. Everyone employed within the horse racing industry will have free use of this facility, too.

Those of you that followed Michel-Jean’s golfing advice are also sitting very pretty this morning. Three of his selected sit 6th, 6th and 9th so plenty for golfing fans to look forward to over the weekend!

The racing today is terrific and whilst the going will be testing at all three meetings, I’m happy with both my figures and the fact the weather is set fair and so, it’s unlikely to get worse! I am looking out of my office window right now and the sun is just coming up…..l have blue skies, thin wispy grey clouds that are ablaze with the orange of that rising sun….crikey, I just had a Wordsworth moment!

ASSUMPTIONS:

ASCOT – SOFT, HEAVY IN PLACES
HAYDOCK – HEAVY
WINCANTON – HEAVY

* INDICATES HORSES HAVING WON PREVIOUSLY ON GOING AS CURRENTLY DESCRIBED.

Wincanton will be hard work. the going there ensured they will not be running any races over fences, an all hurdles card on offer….but my figures for all three there look solid enough.

ASCOT 2-40

*THE RAINBOW HUNTER….+12
*TATANEN….+11
*PROBLEMA TIC….+10
*ASHKAZAR….+8
CAPPA BLEU….-7
VINO GRIEGO….-8
*MAJOR MALARKEY….-15
*IDARAH….-23
*BRACKLOON HIGH….-25
SAINT ARE….-26

THREE TO DUTCH – THE RAINBOW HUNTER, TATANEN, PROBLEMA TIC
20/80 – THE RAINBOW HUNTER
EXOTICS – THE RAINBOW HUNTER, TATANEN, PROBLEMA TIC
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Pricewise, Tom Segal in the Racing Post, seems to believe it will be a Gary Moore fiesta time today but, if he’s right, I’m going to be way wrong! His advice here is a win bet VINO GRIEGO, sitting sixth best on my numbers and, with all three of this horses wins to date coming on heavy you have to feel he has a slight question mark hanging over him. Having said that, he performed well here, on soft, over this trip (all wins to date over shorter), when second to THE MINACK in November 2011, with last years Grand National winner behind in fourth. In form with “buts” attached I can see where Tom is coming from but, I’ve five rated higher, four of them previous winners on soft and I will work with them….despite David Pipe feeling the ground might be to soft for his PROBLEMA TIC. This one has won two of his five races on soft and whilst his record on good ground is awesome (four wins from four runs on it), I’ll include him in my bets. I like the fact THE RAINBOW HUNTER tops my figures because Kim Bailey’s record here with steeplechasers is stonkingly good…three of the six he has sent here in the last five years have been successful and that includes this course and distance winner. TATANEN has a trip issue, for sure but he loves this track and the ground is fine. Let’s just see if we cannot squeeze a little profit from this one.

ASCOT 3-15

*BOURNE….+14
*GENERAL MILLER….+13
*EL DANCER….+10
*HOLD COURT….+9
*TOP OF THE RANGE….+9
*KUILSRIVER….-7
*QUEENS GROVE….-10
*WHITBY JACK….-14
SADLERS RISK….-18
THE COCKNEY MACKEM….-20
TANGO DE JUILLEY….-21
THE BEAR TRAP….-29
LORD OF HOUSE….-36

THREE TO DUTCH – BOURNE, GENERAL MILLER, EL DANCER
20/80 – BOURNE
EXOTICS – BOURNE, GENERAL MILLER, EL DANCER
LAY – THE BEAR TRAP

ADVICE – Tom’s pick here is WHITBY JACK and this one landed a heck of a touch last time up. He won his novice over a trip just one furlong shy of today’s race and I’d not be overly concerned about that plus, soft ground suits fine. He may well prove my figures wrong but, as with SPECIAL ROBON yesterday, until they do, they haven’t and I work with what I have. My top rated won this race last season and this race will be very much run to suit. The only problem is…weight. He needs to improve again to take this pot home for a second time but I’m hopeful that with everything in his favour, he’ll run a big one.
GENERAL MILLER has not seen a racecourse since 2011 but he’s been dropped by 6lb and if fit (he will be coming from the henderson yard), he’ll be competitive. The ground will certainly hold no fears but if I have a doubt, it’s the trip. I will be laying the tissue favourite THE BEAR TRAP. I don’t trust heavy ground Ffos Las form to travel and whilst my data on this is limited right now, I’ll trust that until I have evidence to the contrary. He’s also unplaced all three attempts going right handed so, I’ll have to take this favourite on.

HAYDOCK 2-55

*CANNINGTON BROOK….+17
*GILES CROSS….+16
*NEPTUNE EQUESTER….+14
*SILVER BY NATURE….+9
LIVELY BARON….+9
TRIGGER THE LIGHT….+/-0
*MONBEG DUDE….-5
RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE….-5
MAC AEDA….-6
*TEAFORTHREE….-10
*WELL REFRESHED….-15
*VIKING BLOND….-16
LACKAMON….-25
TRIGGERMAN….-34

THREE TO DUTCH – CANNINGTON BROOK, GILES CROSS, NEPTUNE EQUESTER
20/80 – CANNINGTON BROOK, GILES CROSS
EXOTICS – CANNINGTON BROOK, GILES CROSS, NEPTUNE EQUESTER
LAY – RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE, TEAFORTHREE

ADVICE – It really is going to be a glorious success or an ignominious failure this afternoon. Here I’m laying two horses, one trained by Rebecca Curtis, TEAFORTHREE who is very much a rising star in the handicap field and RIGADEN DE BEAUCHENE, trained by probably the hottest trainer in the country right now (we did get hers beaten yesterday). I’ll be adding Tom Segal’s tip, WELL REFRESHED to my lay portfolio here, if he goes favourite and early indications are, he may well do. I am, however, going to be punting my top rated, who is unbeaten in handicaps at this track, and last years winner of this race, GILES CROSS. Victor Dartnell has suffered badly from a bug in his yard all season but seems to be getting things moving now, as was proven yesterday by RICHARDS SUNDANCE, a very nice 14/1 winner for us. I love having horses on side that are proven under the conditions they will face today….track, trip, going and the three I’m working with sit top of my figures and have those ticks in the right boxes. I just have to hope Tom is wrong now!

HAYDOCK 4-40

*QUARTZ DE THAIX….+8
HOLD ON JULIO….+/-0
*KNOCK A HAND….-2
*NAGPUR….-6
*SIXTY SOMETHING….-10
*MAURICETHEATHLETE….-15
*SEYMOUR ERIC….-25
BOUGGLER….-30
FLORAFERN….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – QUARTZ DE THAIX, KNOCK A HAND, NAGPUR
20/80 – QUARTZ DE THAIX
EXOTICS – QUARTZ DE THAIX, KNOCK A HAND, NAGPUR
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – I have just one with a + figure here, no Pricewise selection to worry about and I’ll work with the three highest rated having that * next to their names. I cannot have HOLD ON JULIO on heavy ground, all three wins to date on good to soft. Probably better going the other way around, too. With two of Venetia’s in my three selected I’m happy to play as indicated.

WINCANTON 2-30

*AMIGO….+11
BENVOLIO….+10
COUP ROYALE….-2
SEMI COLON….-3
BUCK MAGIC….-8
LAFLAMMEDEGLORIE….-18
OLD TRICKS….-20
WHO OWNS ME….-27
THE JUGOPOLIST….-27
MADAM NOSO….-36

ADVICE – With the going here as testing as it will be, I’m simply going to work with those horses having won on heavy. Here I have just one…AMIGO….and just two horses having obtained a + figure. It might be prudent to dutch that pair because whilst I have no proof that BENVOLIO will handle it, I’ve no evidence he wont, either….this is his first run on it. He’s 1-1 on soft and so yes, I’ll dutch but have my 20/80 AMIGO, who has that tick and reverse an exacta. COUP ROYALE also has his first run on heavy too and is one win, one placing from six attempts on soft so, lob him in for a tricast.

WINCANTON 4-15

*DIAMOND’S RETURN….+13
MAXI CHOP….+9
DRAGON’S DEN….-6
*ARRAYAN….-10
*JUMPS ROAD….-11
*SOUTH STACK….-17
DREAMBROOK LADY….-21
SCOTER FONTAINE….-23
ARCH EVENT….-30
DOUBLE HANDFUL….-31
HEADLY’S BRIDGE….-33
RIOR….-34
ZULU PRINCIPLE….-36

ADVICE – Again two clear on my figures and, again, my top rated a winner on soup so, we’ll do exactly the same as above but, instead of lobbing DRAGON’S DEN into my tricast scenarios, I’ll use ARRAYAN.

WINCANTON 4-50

*XAARCET….+9
BRAVO BRAVO….-1
*LIGHT THE WORLD….-7
*JUST CLOUDY….-8
BINCOMBE….-9
BAMBALEO….-14
ORDENSRITTER….-19
FASHION WEEK….-21
IN THE POST….-23
HOPATINA….-31
BLACK PHANTOM….-33
BEN CEE PEE M….-34
COURTING WHITNEY….-34
NOBLE CHIC….-40
TRIFOLLET….-40

ADVICE – If we have a “worst rated race of the day”, it’s probably this one. Having said that it’s still mighty competitive. I have three in my top four with that * next to their names and I’ll play in exactly the same way as I am the other two rated races here. 20/80 XAARCET, dutch that trio and faff about with the exotics.

OF INTEREST

UP AND GO (Ascot 1-30) – 20/80
CAPTAIN CHRIS (Ascot 3-50) – straight win
CAPTAIN CUTTER (Ascot 5-00) – straight win
TWO ROCKERS (Haydock 3-25) – straight win
OHIO GOLD (Haydock 4-05) – straight win
WORKBENCH (Wincanton 1-20) – straight win

THE ONE TO RECOUP THOSE DONATIONS

I had originally intended putting up CAPTAIN CUTTER. His trainer, Nicky Henderson has an unreal record with Bumper horses here and it’s just the fact he’s giving 9lb to the odds on favourite that stops me.

Instead, it’s OHIO GOLD that gets the gig. He makes his handicap debut over fences in the Haydock 4-05 and with trip and ground right, jockey Tom O’Brien having a magnificent record for Colin Tizzard when riding for him here (four winners from five rides), and Colin Tizzard himself having run nine steeplechasers at Haydock in the last five seasons and having scored with three of them, you have to think this horse will be primed for a very big run today.

I’m thinking that lot will do for today so have a good one and the very best of luck if you get involved.

Kindest regards

Ron

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