I usually get up each morning buzzing. It’s a new day, another opportunity to get something done and that I make my living doing something I enjoy doing, is something I never take for granted. I’m lucky. I have never minded early starts, in fact I love them. When I get up I disturb the birds! Today though I’m looking at the racing, I’m checking the going description (always the first thing I’m looking at), and looking back through yesterday’s results again. Race times are, as you will be 100% aware, something I’m watching like a hawk and those recorded at Sandown yesterday do indicate it was as described…heavy….and looking at my figures for that track, I have to be happy with how they stacked up, if a little frustrated.
*EASTLAKE….-1 – WON 11/2
ADVICE – I am still keeping my powder dry and will not be betting myself. My top rated has yet to win on anything softer than good to soft so I could even consider him. If I was playing it would be rated horses 2, 3 and 4 to October Rules.
RESULT – The advice to steer well clear of TOUBAB, irrespective of his rating, was sound. Some, obviously not in receipt of that lot above, were lumping on him, at least four recorded bets of £1000 struck on course. He finished tailed off last of the eight that finished. The explanation for this poor run, recorded by the stewards, was, “the gelding was unsuited by the ground”. Anyone who punted that horse into 11/4 favourite needs help. The “top rated” of those with form on heavy duly obliged, so I (and a few of you), were happy.
*PLEIN POUVOIR….+1 – 2ND 4/1 > 10/3
*DASHING GEORGE….-3 – WON 6/1 > 4/1
*TAIL OF THE BANK….-25
ADVICE – Another “crusties” novelty race but hey, my figures the other day for a “like” race were absolutely spot on. I’m less concerned for my top rated here regarding the going as he has won on “very soft” and this track suits him perfectly. I would just be looking at my top pair, if I was thinking about parting with those shekels.
RESULT – I made an error here. I allowed myself to “think” something might happen, and that’s stupid….hence my frustration. My top rated should have again been ignored for punting purpose simply because he didn’t have that * next to his name. Had I done that and advised you properly you would, had you played, secured a dutch, an 18/1 exacta, the 17/1 CSF and the “80” back from the runner up. You have my apologies.
ON TREND….+12 – WON 7/1
ADVICE – My top three look set to dominate this, if I’m right and, with two of them previous winners on mush, they would very much appear the way to go. I’m certainly at odds with the Racing Post “Verdict” selections that naps the one holding up the six above him on my numbers and offers up Mister Hyde as the alternative option. I’ll just watch to see who is right.
RESULT – We will never know what might have happened had KEPPOLS HILL not fallen at the first fence and no point dwelling to much on this one. I’m happy I got one over on the “Verdict” though!
SHANGANI….-9 – WON 6/5F
TAKE OF SHOC’S….-40
ADVICE – Even if I was punting this is a race I’d be seriously shy of getting involved in. I have a horse clear on the figures but he really will need those first time blinkers to work, if he is to live up to that +9.
RESULT – Agan extremely happy with my figures. I think every man and his dog knew the top rated has gone at the game and simply isn’t enjoying racing. It was still a race I would not have played though.
Wetherby, by contrast, produced times that indicate heavier than heavy. so how did they still call it “SOFT, HEAVY IN PLACES”?….Only the first race was run in a time that would have indicated “normal” heavy ground and soft most certainly didn’t enter the equation. The rest run closer to a minute over standard and only one of them two seconds shy of 50 seconds “late”….
I was again happy with how the figures performed though and I know, as sure as eggs make omelettes, as soon as we get proper racing ground again, we will hammer into the layers and make up for lost time.
*MUBROOK….-1 – 4TH 10/1
*RENOYR….-6 – 3RD 11/4
*SAM LORD….-21 – 6TH 20/1
ADVICE – My top rated has been missing since Harold took one in the eye and he has only placed once from three attempts, on ground worse than good to soft. It would be rated horses 2, 3 and 4 to October Rules or nowt, this one!
RESULT – Another race in which the top rated was advised a no-hoper and, as with TOUBAB, he finished last of the 13 to complete this race. Three of the then “top six” finished in the first six home…the winner sitting just below them but not a race I would have got involved in to any great degree under normal circumstances.
*HERDSMAN….-9 – WON 4/1
*PAUSE AND CLAUSE….-18
ADVICE – Good little race, this is. My top rated is actually the rag on the tissue which looks nuts to me. however, i’ll stick to my no punting guns and watch. Only my second highest rated has yet to win on this ground they’ll encounter today but he’s totally unexposed so, punter beware.
RESULT – Two of my top three pulled up in what was a complete farce of a race. If you didn’t see how this panned out, visit one of the sites that provides replays and sit and wonder.
*DUNOWEN POINT….+12 – 2ND 5/2
*LEASE LEND….+9 – 3RD 5/1
*ZITENKA….+6 – 5TH 14/1
*WHATS UP WOODY….+3 – 6TH9/1
*NICEONEFRANKIE….-1 – NR
CLOUDY TOO….-20 – WON 9/2
ADVICE – Best race of the day. I thought my top rated was lucky to beat my second highest rated last time up but my figures suggest he’ll do so again today. I actually thought something went wrong with Lease Lend going to the last fence and was actually concerned for his health but, he’s here so obviously nothing was amiss.
RESULT – Why was the winner, who went off at a shortish price, so lowly rated? When I’m looking at a race I award marks for certain things and when it comes to jumping, it’s the ability to jump that accrues a few marks. The winner had fallen in four of its previous six attempts at jumping fences which, allied to the fact I was working with soft as the primary going condition, produced a low rating. Had I been working on the basis it was heavy, the horse would have rated significantly higher but, not high enough to have been in my bets….because of those jumping issues. Sometimes I’ll be right and sometimes I’ll be wrong….had I been right about CLOUDY TOO yesterday then we would have enjoyed success but, I was wrong.
The winners of five of my seven races yesterday were in the top three rated and I am more than pleased with that. Give me the ground and, I will be putting them your way.
Just Musselburgh and only two rated races. If the going does ride as described then I will be more than happy to work with them.
MUSSELBURGH – GOOD TO SOFT, SOFT IN PLACES
* INDICATES HORSES HAVING PREVIOUSLY WON ON THE GOING AS CURRENTLY DESCRIBED.
*QUITO DU TRESOR….+/-0
PRINCE OF DREAMS….-25
THREE TO DUTCH – STORMY WEATHER, CICERON, SWIFT ARROW
20/80 – STORMY WEATHER
EXOTICS – STORMY WEATHER, CICERON, SWIFT ARROW
LAY – NONE
ADVICE – An absolute diamond of a race. Only a small field but all bar my bottom rated horse has winning form on good to soft so pleeeeease, let it be good to soft! It is as tight as a ducks backside at the top of my figures and I will play them as they have popped out. My top rated is making his handicap debut this afternoon and that’s always a concern but this quicker ground might help him turn around recent form with my second highest rated horse, as might the cheekpieces which they put back on today. All systems go….i’m having a bet!
THE BULL HAYES….-30
THREE TO DUTCH – DONTPAYTHEFERRYMAN, CREEKSIDE, INGLEBY SPIRIT
20/80 – DONTPAYTHEFERRYMAN
EXOTICS – DONTPAYTHEFERRYMAN, CREEKSIDE, INGLEBY SPIRIT
LAY – NONE
ADVICE – My top rated in the previous race won this one last season and is trained by the bloke that saddles my top rated in this one, Brian Ellison. Spooky! I might be accused of being a mentalist come 3-40pm but with my being such a pedantic swine when it comes to the going, I have to drop BRICK RED like a hot one, given all his winning form has come on slower. He runs for a stable in red hot form, is improving hand over fist and might win this head in chest, off top weight but you know me….no winning form on good to soft so, he’s out. If he’s your fancy then the figures indicate he’ll run a massive race so please, do not let me put you off him. I have the odour of rat up my nostrils….LIFETIME makes his handicap debut, also for Brian Ellison and he’s put up a decent 5lb claimer in Kyle James, who is 3-6 for the yard at this venue. He will surely improve on that figure I have and if he’s better again on good to soft, then that tissue price of 20/1 is a nonsense. I could tie myself in knots with this one so I’ll just work as indicated and if I am right, I’ll make a profit, if not, there will be another day.
Check out the piece by Sean Trivass on the website, if you have not already done so and input the name of the horse into your trackers….
Cheer on Brandt Snedeker in the Phoenix Open today. if he manages to claw back the six shots lead currently held by Phil Mickelson then Michel-Jean will have started his golfing section off with a kaboom! He sits second on the leaderboard with this final round to play and, whilst victory looks difficult, the “80” advised draws in a healthy return.
Have a great day and the very best of luck if you are punting this afternoon