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Tiger to prove a lion at the Mountain?

TigerAccenture World Match Play

From Dove Mountain

This is the 5th year that Dove Mountain hosts this prestigious match play event

It’s an up to date 7800 yards of a Jack Nicklaus dream design. They could, if they wanted to, push it to 8051 and it’s the longest on the PGA Tour by some way

The fairways are wide and luscious whilst the greens are tempting, not big, just 6000 sq feet, but typical Big Bear in as much the danger lurks nearer the hole because in places the greens can react like a good old fashioned links course, with undulations and drop offs where you least expect them.

Mind you unlike last week at Riviera where any old banjo would do, today green in regulation, and bogey avoidance are paramount. However aggressive putting is definitely what`s needed. I know that sounds like an oxymoron, right.

The Draw

Now I have tried to explain the draw too a couple of mates and got about as far as sounding like an Englishman trying to explain cricket to a bunch of Frenchman. Not a good idea

The Weather

Something you wont here me say often, but it’s going to be miserable later today with rain and very gusty winds. Never mind it will cheer up tomorrow and Saturday but winds will never quite die down

So today look for some little pieces of chaos, but if it does happen I am going to look particularly stupid

So let’s go with the flow here now. There are four groups of 16, the toughest being the Gary Player by far {a few potential upsets there}, the others all seemingly much of a muchness, they being The Sam Snead, The Ben Hogan and The Bobby Jones….aaaah Bobby Jones, now there was a bloke that could play a bit….sorry I digress

Here is how I see each group

Gary Player

Woods should get through against Molinari and Simpson but Molinari is an aggressive little so and so and frankly, Webb Simpson has as much nous as Woods. That will be a fight and he has to get passed Charlie Howells first up

The bottom half of the group looks far easier. My vision…Mahan wanders serenely through leaving a Woods v Mahan group final. Now given that Woods has won on 3 of the 5 occasions the Tourney has been held here don’t hold your breath waiting for any kind of upset

But as I say, on their day all four could have done a job on Tiger

Be brave though, Woods for me

Sam Snead

Simple task here Luke Donald can be the best by miles. I see an unexpected situation in him playing Jamie Donaldson for the place in the last 4 .

But I will tempt you. Bo Van Pelt didn’t play well last week and had a rest for last two days. Might tempt a few at a big price and I can see him winning one match but not two. If he goes two rounds then the door opens

Bobby Jones

I am a fan of McIlroy but he is not done to a turn. Too little golf, too many other distractions (like tennis), and I can see the Irishman being marmalised here. Fowler to beat Rory and Padraig, to head top half of the group

The bottom half is a bit loose with only Charl Schwartzel and Jason Day worth a look at. The money says Fowler will lose to both of them if he meets in the final of the group

On this occasion Charl will do for me

Then we are left with the Ben Hogan Group

Not hardest but trickiest Garcia back from eye-corrective surgery, Els, Oosterhuizen who, if he putts well, will walk this group and the Tourney.

Simple in my view if Louis gets past Ernie he wins. If he doesn’t then Ernie will ramp up against Charl for the head of the group and into the final four.

What’s my answer?

Sergio will lose to either South African, so play to the money, which is Louis Oosthuizen

So there’s your semi’s

Schwartzel v Oosthuizen

Woods v Donald

And here are the prices

Woods 11/1

Donald 16/1

Scwartzel 18/1

Oosthuizen 25/1

Under the radar  – Keegan Bradley 35/1

Difficult section:

Woods to beat Charlie Howell first round

Woods to beat Molinari  second round

Woods to beat Simpson third round

To me, that’s hard!

So for me it’s a South African win. Back ‘em both ¼ the odds first 4 places

Have a great weekend!

Accenture update

Well don’t say I didn’t warn you, but SNOW !!!!!! , didn’t expect that. But not only did snow decimate the day, it actually didn’t do wonderfully well for my selections either

I said Tiger’s pathway was hard, but I didn’t expect him to fall at the first hurdle. I mean come on, Charlie is a bit more of a player than a journeyman, but only just a bit.

The other Charl? Well didn’t see that one coming, the same as I am annoyed at my dropping of Martin Kaymer from the reckoning. Now he has a fair chance but at 14`s and third favourite. Not value at all!

With Luke Donald going on, well lets say, a bit ordinary, nothing really special about his victory yesterday and if he continues to play like that he will get hammered. Then into the mix comes Ian Poulter.

Now you should know this, I like Ian, a real jack the lad but you can’t back him, or sorry I can’t! He always gets it right when he shouldn’t and when you think bingo !!!!!…his head’s on another planet!

But see, I am now biased, because he plays “The Big Puddin” 6 feet 5 possibly 6 feet 6 in his new shoes , currently bending the scales and weighing in around the 220 mark (that’s getting on to nigh 16 stone to you and me} From Tulsa Oklahoma, Bo (cheers please) Van Pelt . When mentioned on here commonly known as “My Mucker” and sitting at 35/1. Well boys and girls, I am having a punt.

Remember what I said yesterday, ”he might win one but winning 2 might be impossible, but if he does the door opens for him”

Elsewhere Louis Oosthuizen went well and pushed on but even he couldn’t dislodge the European quartet of Donald, Poulter, Kaymer and Rose from heading the market.

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