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Today’s Ratings and Advice 06/01/13

Considering the ground yesterday, I was quite happy with how my figures performed overall. When you have clusters of horse pulling up fully six fences from home, as happened at Wincanton, you know what you are dealing with.

Let’s take a very quick look back at those rated races yesterday….

SANDOWN 1-50

DOMTALINE….+11
*IDARAH….-4
KING EDMUND….-13
*WILLIAM’S WISHES….-15 – WON EVENS
*FALCON ISLAND….-16
*NOZIC….-25

TWO TO DUTCH – IDARAH, WILLIAM’S WISHES
20/80 – IDARAH
EXOTIC – IDARAH, WILLIAM’S WISHES
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – With my top rated having produced all his best form on much quicker ground, i cannot advocate playing him. IDARAH is unbeaten in handicaps for Venetia Williams at this trip and he’ll certainly find this easier than the Tingle Creek, in which he ran home fourth recently. He does have the formidable looking WILLIAM’S WISHES to beat and he’d have to be in my dutch as the next one on the list to have won on the kind of ground they will face today.

RESULT – Not a race anyone would have got rich off, no matter how they played it but whilst the pundits on the Morning Line (what has changed, really?), were all shouting DOMTALINE, the advice to swerve that one on account of going conditions proved spot on.

SANDOWN 3-00

VALCO DE TOUZAINE….+9
*URGENCE D’ESTRUVAL….+8
*RONALDO DES MOTTES….-2 – 4TH 25/1 > 20/1
*THE ITALIAN YOB….-17 – 2ND 9/1 > 6/1
*KYLENOE FAIRY….-18
DUASEOIR….-18
*LORD OF THE HOPUSE….-24 – WON 12/1
SOFTSONG….-32
TESHALI….-33
IFYOULETMEFINISH….-35
WHITBY JACK….-35
CHESIL BEACH BOY….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – URGENCE D’ESTRUVAL, RONALDO DES MOTTES, THE ITALIAN YOB
20/80 – UREGENCE D’ESTRUVAL
EXOTICS – URGENCE D’ESTRUVAL, RONALDO DES MOTTES, THE ITALIAN YOB
LAY – IFYOULETMEFINISH

ADVICE – As with the top rated in that previous race, all the winning form of VALCO DE TOUZAINE has come on good ground and, whilst the horse has placed on soft and heavy, until they win on it, they haven’t and I’m not going to be guessing on a Saturday! The next three in the pecking order have all won on slop and so, they get the gig at this end.

RESULT – Highlighting those with winning form on slop is proving very helpful and here three of the first four home were so highlighted. The handicap debutante absolutely romped away with this and when something like that happens you simply hold up your hands and move on.

SANDOWN 3-40

*ROYAL CHARM….+12 – 5TH 11/2
*TRIOLO D’ALENE….+11
*ACROSS THE BAY….+9
*RAILWAY DILLON….-2
*ALFIE SPINNER….-9 – 6TH 11/4F
*KATENKO….-14 – WON 7/1 > 5/1
*TAMARINBLEU….-15
*HEY BIG SPENDER….-16
*FRUITY O’ROONEY….-18 – 3RD 10/1
JOHNS SPIRIT….-21 – 2ND 6/1
*GULLIBLE GORDON….-25
*TARTAK….-35 – 4TH 20/1

THREE TO DUTCH – ROYAL CHARM, TRIOLO D’ALENE, ACROSS THE BAY
20/80 – ROYAL CHARM
EXOTICS – ROYAL CHARM, TRIOLO D’ALENE, ACROSS THE BAY
LAY – JOHNS SPIRIT

ADVICE – ACROSS THE BAY is most likely going to Chepstow, in which case RAILWAY DILLON, his stable mate, would replace him in my bets. ALFIE SPINNER is also entered at Chepstow but is much more likely to run here, and I would anticipate a huge run if he does. The winner is in my top four, it’s just simply a case of weedling it out. Hopefully my figures are telling the truth.

RESULT – The morning tissue favourite, JOHNS SPIRIT was the suggested lay but he ran a cracker on ground he had not previously won on…but he didn’t win. KATENKO looked like he could go around again and is most certainly one to follow whilst we have these terrible conditions.

CHEPSTOW 2-10

GUS MACRAE….+11
*CEDRE BLEU….+10
*CADOUDALAS….+8
*SHOEGAZER….+8 – 2ND 3/1
*SEE U BOB….+4 – 3RD 12/1 > 8/1
*TAIL OF THE BANK….-5 – 4TH 11/1
*CARRICKBOY….-14 – WON 7/1
*SIR DU BEARN….-17
MAHOGANY BLAZE….-19

THREE TO DUTCH – CEDRE BLEU, CADOUDALAS, SHOEGAZER
20/80 – SHOEGAZER
EXOTICS – CEDRE BLEU, CADOUDALAS, SHOEGAZER
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Once again we have a top rated horse unproven on heavy and I’ll again simply select the next three in the list, who have no such potential spanner in their works. I have opted for SHOEGAZER as my 20/80 because I have a slight concern over the trip for CDERE BLEU and old CADOUDALAS has not managed to get his head in front for two years so, I’ll run with the horse that won by 20 lengths the last time he raced on heavy ground.

RESULT – Venetia Williams has her horses absolutely motoring right now but i thought we had this won with SHOEGAZER before that last fence gave him an issue. Never mind, these things happen.

CHEPSTOW 2-45

*FRED THE SHRED….+15 – 2ND 7/1
SHOTGUN PADDY….+14 – 3RD 8/1
*MAURICETHEATHLETE….+13 – 5TH 17/2
AMIGO….+8 – WON 5/1
ROGER BEANTOWN….+5
*ROYAL RIVIERA….-5
*RADMORES REVENGE….-5
TELL ME Y….-9
*ROUND THE HORN….-15
*PENSION PLAN….-16
QUIGLEYS EXPRESS….-20
DESTROYER DEPLOYED….-25
RIPTIDE….-34
RADIUS BLEU….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – FRED THE SHRED, MAURICETHEATHLETE, ROYAL RIVIERA
20/80 – FRED THE SHRED
EXOTICS – FRED THE SHRED, MAURICETHEATHLETE, ROYAL RIVIERA
LAY – TELL ME Y

ADVICE – Three miles on heavy, at Chepstow, I can only even contemplate working with those in my top six, having previously won on it. Thankfully my top rated has! I will not be getting heavily involved in this one from a financial point of view but enough to make it interesting.

RESULT – Four of the first five home in my top rated, I have to be pleased with how the figures performed even if we did see a top rated horse done by one winning for the first time on heavy. He will need to win again to qualify for the Pertemps Final at the Festival so, keep an eye out for him running in another long distance hurdle race soon.

CHEPSTOW 3-20

*SONA SASTA….+12
*GILES CROSS….+9
*TEAFORTHREE….+9 – 2ND 11/4
MICHEL LE BON….+9
*MASTER OVERSEER….+8
*ARBOR SUPREME….+8
*INCENTIVISE….+5
*ALFIE SPINNER….+2
*OUR ISLAND….-2
*ACROSS THE BAY….-3
*VIKING BLOND….-4
TRIGGERMAN….-5
*MON MOME….-14
UNIVERSAL SOLDIER….-16
*HAROUET….-25
*SOLL….-25
*JADANLI….-25
MONBEG DUDE….-30 – WON10/1

THREE TO DUTCH – SONA SASTA, GILES CROSS, TEAFORTHREE
20/80 SONA SASTA
EXOTICS – SONA SASTA, GILES CROSS, TEAFORTHREE
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – All the talk is of my third best, TEAFORTHREE and when I visited the stables of Rebecca Curtis recently they were very bullish about the chances of their horse here. He has been trained for today, has Tony McCoy up, is the Pricewise pick and everything looks positive. But I have him co-second best and will work with the very lightly weighted SONA SASTA for my single punt.

RESULT – So very close to a coup being landed but what we witnessed here was a ride by Paul Carberry that will go down as one of the best seen this season….if not the best. Here he was riding a horse unproven on heavy, that cannot jump properly, and who was bottom rated….shows you what I know! It was not pretty watching what was going on behind them, as half the field pulled up and we saw 90 lengths put between 1st and last but you’ll not be taking this away from Mr Carberry, who showed again he’s the best in the business when it comes to nursing one around and putting in front on the line.

WINCANTON 2-05

*LANDSCAPE….+5 – 4th 15/8
*GEVREY CHAMBERTIN….-3 – WON5/6
UNTIL WINNING….-15
DANANDY….-21
TIMESISHARD….-22
*OSCAR PRAIRIE….-25 – 2ND 66/1
*AMERICAN LIFE….-25
OLD TRICKS….-27
RED JADE….-35
SNAKE CHARMER….-38
WILLOW’S SAVIOUR….-40

TWO TO DUTCH – LANDSCAPE, GEVREY CHAMBERTIN
STRAIGHT WIN – LANDSCAPE
EXOTIC – LANDSCAPE, GEVREY CHAMBERTIN
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – I will be gobsmacked if the winner is outside my top pairing. I can only work as indicated.

RESULT – Only one of two could win and the decision to go again quickly backfired on the Paul Nicholls trained LANDSCAPE, who turned to much very quickly once the taps were turned on. That * proved a valuable source of information though as one of the top three obtaining it ran home 2nd @ 66/1 and the top three having it against there names were three of the first four home.

WINCANTON 2-40

CURRENT EVENT….+12
*PLEIN POUVOIR….+9
*BIG FELLA THANKS….+8 – WON 6/1
*TULLAMORE DEW….-3 – 3RD /1
*CONSIGLIERE….-10 – 2ND 7/2
*THE SAWYER….-19
*TAKE THE BREEZE….-28
*FIENDISH FLAME….-35
MICHAEL FLIPS….-35
MR GARDNER….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – PLEIN POUVOIR, BIG FELLA THANKS, TULLAMORE DEW
20/80 – PLEIN POUVOIR
EXOTICS – PLEIN POUVOIR, BIG FELLA THANKS, TULLAMORE DEW
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Another Nicholls horse, top rated but, yet to win on the heavy. I’m going to be right about these horses or, those that work purely with my top rated will be rubbing my nose in it at the end of racing. I can only work with the three best rated, proven on heavy and that’s them above.

RESULT – Agin very happy with how things panned out here. Only PLEIN POUVOIR disappointed but these animals are flesh and blood and do not run on rails. First three home in the top four boasting previous winning form on heavy and the advice to swerve the top rated because of the ground again proved spot on….it pulled up before the 12th.

NEWCASTLE 1-05

*PEAKS OF FIRE….-30
ENDEAVOR….-35
ONE FOR HARRY….-35
GOODLUKIN LUCY….-35
LAKEMAN….-40
BUNRATTY….-40

ADVICE – The racing here today is awful. If you play either rated race just work with the highest rated horse, proven on heavy. Here it’s my top one.

RESULT – Would you believe me if I told you I have only just looked at the results from Newcastle? It was awful racing run on awful ground and of no real interest to me. I hope none of you were “gagging for a bet!”

NEWCASTLE 2-50

SAM PATCH….-23
*SOUL ANGEL….-25
*PANTHERS RUN….-35
DINGO BAY….-40
MAN OF PRINCIPLES….-40
FIGHTSTAR….-40
SHOAL BAY DREAMER….-40
VARDAS SUPREME….-40

ADVICE – Here it is SOUL ANGEL but in all honesty, you only punt either race if you are gagging for a bet.

The OF INTEREST section again came up trumps with BENVOLIO winning for us @ 6/1, PENDRA running a mighty race in the Tolworth, 2nd 15/2 > 6/1 and UN AMI looking for all the world like he was coming to win his race before an awful jump at the second last cost him a heck of a lot. A very profitable return from that section again though.

TODAY

Just Plumpton to play around with but hopefully some joy to come from it.

ASSUMPTIONS:

PLUMPTON: SOFT, HEAVY IN PLACES

PLUMPTON 2-25

*GILDED AGE….-16
*ROMNEY MARSH….-27
MARBLE WALK….-32
*AUREATE….-39
RULBIN REALTA….-40
BUDSSON….-40
WHITCOMBE SPIRIT….-40
SHE’S JOLLY….-40
NOBLE CHIC….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – GILDED AGE, ROMNEY MARSH, AUREATE
20/80 – GILDED AGE
EXOTICS – GILDED AGE, ROMNEY MARSH, AUREATE
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Three in my top four having winning form on soft so, I’ll play as indicated but my staking will be minimal

PLUMPTON 2-55

*REBLIS….+18
*DOUBLE DIZZY….+16
*MIKO DE BEAUCHENE….+11
*PRESENT TO YOU….+10
*PETITFOUR….+9
*MISSION COMPLETE….+5
QUALVIRO….+5
WELL REFRESHED….-3
HODGSON….-16
BRUNETTE’SONLY….-17
TIM THE CHAIR….-20
MASTER NEO….-25

THREE TO DUTCH – REBLIS, DOUBLE DIZZY, MIKO DE BEAUCHENE
20/80 – REBLIS
EXOTICS – REBLIS, DOUBLE DIZZY, MIKO DE BEAUCHENE
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – This could get ugly to watch. I’m more than happy to work with my figures and with just a concern regarding the trip under top weight in these conditions, I’ll run with the numbers and have REBLIS as my single play.

PLUMPTON 3-30

NEWTON TONIC….+16
*BALLYMAN….+11
*MIDNIGHT MACARENA….+/-0
*SHE’S HUMBLE….-4
MALIN HEAD….-14
*BETHEHOLYGOBBS….-16
SHERREB….-25
BORDER STATION….-36
JUST CLOUDY….-38
JOIN THE NAVY….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – BALLYMAN, MIDNIGHT MACARENA, SHE’S HUMBLE
20/80 – BALLYMAN
EXOTICS – BALLYMAN, MIDNIGHT MACARENA, SHE’S HUMBLE
LAY – JOIN THE NAVY

ADVICE – If NEWTON TONIC handles conditions he’d be dangerous but right now, I have what I have and will work with those tools. He’s unplaced going left handed from seven previous attempts which tempers any enthusiasm even further. BALLYMAN, by contrast, is most definitely a southpaw, 2 wins and four placings from 10 attempts going left so he’s got the 20/80 gig.

PLUMPTON 4-00

ENGAI….+13
PETIT ECUYER….-2
STRONGLY SUGGESTED….-5
ROSOFF….-12
DUNGENESS….-16
LITTLE ROXY….-17
ADRENALIN FLIGHT….-24
BOLLIN JUDITH….-30
SACRILEGE….-35
GENEROUS SPENDER….-39
BELLOSGUARDO….-40
ROCKY ELSOM….-40
NEMO SPIRIT….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – ENGAI, PETIT ECUYER, STRONGLY SUGGESTED
20/80 – ENGAI
EXOTICS – ENGAI, PETIT ECUYER, STRONGLY SUGGESTED
LAY – BOLLIN JUDITH

ADVICE – Not a single one of these has previously won on soft ground, which causes me a headache. I either play to my October rules, or simply watch. If I’m ahead of the game come 3-55pm I might get involved, if not, I’ll just keep an eye on how things pan out.

OF INTEREST

BALLINCURRIG (Plumpton 12-55) – 20/80
VENCEREMOS (Plumpton 1-55) – 20/80

Have a brilliant day and don’t forget, if you fancy popping along to Wolverhampton tomorrow to meet other Post Racing members to cheer on Rosie’s Lady, let Paul know so that we can organise tickets for you.

Have a great Sunday and the best of luck if you are getting involved.

Kindest regards

Ron

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