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Today’s Ratings and Advice 05/01/13

It’s a very strange feeling being able to sit down to work on four scheduled meetings, all free of inspection, even if all four will be run on very soft/heavy ground.

Yesterday wasn’t at all bad and how close did we come to landing a very nice punt on BOBBYJACK. I advised a few weeks ago that you pop that one in a tracker and the wait was worth the while. He ran a stormer to be second @ 8/1, just nutted close home by a 25/1 shot, who came very wide down his outside. it was reminiscent of watching Giants Causeway get beat, the runner up given no time to respond to the challenge that he probably didn’t even see until he’d gone by him. Great ride by Dominic Elsworth on that winner though….credit where credit is due.

We did enjoy a very nice winner in VIVA COLONIA, 5/1, in the Beginners’ Chase. David will be pleased his work in making this one a steeplechaser has paid off, even if he did recently lose the horse to Brian Ellison. The horse will be aimed at the grand Annual at the Festival and whilst his jumping needs to improve, that’s more likely then not, with experience.

BALLYGARVEY was a nice enough top rated winner in the 1-50pm at Lingfield….good job I got those numbers out to you!….he’ll win more races over fences.

Today is extremely busy so let’s crack on.

ASSUMPTION:

SANDOWN: HURDLE COURSE HEAVY, SOFT IN PLACES, CHASE COURSE SOFT, HEAVY IN PLACES
CHEPSTOW: HEAVY
WINCANTON: HEAVY, SOFT IN PLACES
NEWCASTLE: HEAVY, SOFT IN PLACES IN LAST THREE FURLONGS

*indicates horses having won on the going as currently assumed

To go directly to the race you wish to view, please click the link below:

SANDOWN 1-50
SANDOWN 3-00
SANDOWN 3-40
CHEPSTOW 2-10
CHEPSTOW 2-45
CHEPSTOW 3-20
WINCANTON 2-05
WINCANTON 2-40
NEWCASTLE 1-05
NEWCASTLE 2-50

SANDOWN 1-50

DOMTALINE….+11
*IDARAH….-4
KING EDMUND….-13
*WILLIAM’S WISHES….-15
*FALCON ISLAND….-16
*NOZIC….-25

TWO TO DUTCH – IDARAH, WILLIAM’S WISHES
20/80 – IDARAH
EXOTIC – IDARAH, WILLIAM’S WISHES
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – With my top rated having produced all his best form on much quicker ground, i cannot advocate playing him. IDARAH is unbeaten in handicaps for Venetia Williams at this trip and he’ll certainly find this easier than the Tingle Creek, in which he ran home fourth recently. He does have the formidable looking WILLIAM’S WISHES to beat and he’d have to be in my dutch as the next one on the list to have won on the kind of ground they will face today.

SANDOWN 3-00

VALCO DE TOUZAINE….+9
*URGENCE D’ESTRUVAL….+8
*RONALDO DES MOTTES….-2
*THE ITALIAN YOB….-17
*KYLENOE FAIRY….-18
DUASEOIR….-18
*LORD OF THE HOPUSE….-24
SOFTSONG….-32
TESHALI….-33
IFYOULETMEFINISH….-35
WHITBY JACK….-35
CHESIL BEACH BOY….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – URGENCE D’ESTRUVAL, RONALDO DES MOTTES, THE ITALIAN YOB
20/80 – UREGENCE D’ESTRUVAL
EXOTICS – URGENCE D’ESTRUVAL, RONALDO DES MOTTES, THE ITALIAN YOB
LAY – IFYOULETMEFINISH

ADVICE – As with the top rated in that previous race, all the winning form of VALCO DE TOUZAINE has come on good ground and, whilst the horse has placed on soft and heavy, until they win on it, they haven’t and I’m not going to be guessing on a Saturday! The next three in the pecking order have all won on slop and so, they get the gig at this end.

SANDOWN 3-40

*ROYAL CHARM….+12
*TRIOLO D’ALENE….+11
*ACROSS THE BAY….+9
*RAILWAY DILLON….-2
*ALFIE SPINNER….-9
*KATENKO….-14
*TAMARINBLEU….-15
*HEY BIG SPENDER….-16
*FRUITY O’ROONEY….-18
JOHNS SPIRIT….-21
*GULLIBLE GORDON….-25
*TARTAK….-35

THREE TO DUTCH – ROYAL CHARM, TRIOLO D’ALENE, ACROSS THE BAY
20/80 – ROYAL CHARM
EXOTICS – ROYAL CHARM, TRIOLO D’ALENE, ACROSS THE BAY
LAY – JOHNS SPIRIT

ADVICE – ACROSS THE BAY is most likely going to Chepstow, in which case RAILWAY DILLON, his stable mate, would replace him in my bets. ALFIE SPINNER is also entered at Chepstow but is much more likely to run here, and I would anticipate a huge run if he does. The winner is in my top four, it’s just simply a case of weedling it out. Hopefully my figures are telling the truth.

CHEPSTOW 2-10

GUS MACRAE….+11
*CEDRE BLEU….+10
*CADOUDALAS….+8
*SHOEGAZER….+8
*SEE U BOB….+4
*TAIL OF THE BANK….-5
*CARRICKBOY….-14
*SIR DU BEARN….-17
MAHOGANY BLAZE….-19

THREE TO DUTCH – CEDRE BLEU, CADOUDALAS, SHOEGAZER
20/80 – SHOEGAZER
EXOTICS – CEDRE BLEU, CADOUDALAS, SHOEGAZER
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Once again we have a top rated horse unproven on heavy and I’ll again simply select the next three in the list, who have no such potential spanner in their works. I have opted for SHOEGAZER as my 20/80 because I have a slight concern over the trip for CDERE BLEU and old CADOUDALAS has not managed to get his head in front for two years so, I’ll run with the horse that won by 20 lengths the last time he raced on heavy ground.

CHEPSTOW 2-45

*FRED THE SHRED….+15
SHOTGUN PADDY….+14
*MAURICETHEATHLETE….+13
AMIGO….+8
ROGER BEANTOWN….+5
*ROYAL RIVIERA….-5
*RADMORES REVENGE….-5
TELL ME Y….-9
*ROUND THE HORN….-15
*PENSION PLAN….-16
QUIGLEYS EXPRESS….-20
DESTROYER DEPLOYED….-25
RIPTIDE….-34
RADIUS BLEU….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – FRED THE SHRED, MAURICETHEATHLETE, ROYAL RIVIERA
20/80 – FRED THE SHRED
EXOTICS – FRED THE SHRED, MAURICETHEATHLETE, ROYAL RIVIERA
LAY – TELL ME Y

ADVICE – Three miles on heavy, at Chepstow, I can only even contemplate working with those in my top six, having previously won on it. Thankfully my top rated has! I will not be getting heavily involved in this one from a financial point of view but enough to make it interesting.

CHEPSTOW 3-20

*SONA SASTA….+12
*GILES CROSS….+9
*TEAFORTHREE….+9
MICHEL LE BON….+9
*MASTER OVERSEER….+8
*ARBOR SUPREME….+8
*INCENTIVISE….+5
*ALFIE SPINNER….+2
*OUR ISLAND….-2
*ACROSS THE BAY….-3
*VIKING BLOND….-4
TRIGGERMAN….-5
*MON MOME….-14
UNIVERSAL SOLDIER….-16
*HAROUET….-25
*SOLL….-25
*JADANLI….-25
MONBEG DUDE….-30

THREE TO DUTCH – SONA SASTA, GILES CROSS, TEAFORTHREE
20/80 SONA SASTA
EXOTICS – SONA SASTA, GILES CROSS, TEAFORTHREE
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – All the talk is of my third best, TEAFORTHREE and when I visited the stables of Rebecca Curtis recently they were very bullish about the chances of their horse here. He has been trained for today, has Tony McCoy up, is the Pricewise pick and everything looks positive. But I have him co-second best and will work with the very lightly weighted SONA SASTA for my single punt.

WINCANTON 2-05

*LANDSCAPE….+5
*GEVREY CHAMBERTIN….-3
UNTIL WINNING….-15
DANANDY….-21
TIMESISHARD….-22
*OSCAR PRAIRIE….-25
*AMERICAN LIFE….-25
OLD TRICKS….-27
RED JADE….-35
SNAKE CHARMER….-38
WILLOW’S SAVIOUR….-40

TWO TO DUTCH – LANDSCAPE, GEVREY CHAMBERTIN
STRAIGHT WIN – LANDSCAPE
EXOTIC – LANDSCAPE, GEVREY CHAMBERTIN
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – I will be gobsmacked if the winner is outside my top pairing. I can only work as indicated.

WINCANTON 2-40

CURRENT EVENT….+12
*PLEIN POUVOIR….+9
*BIG FELLA THANKS….+8
*TULLAMORE DEW….-3
*CONSIGLIERE….-10
*THE SAWYER….-19
*TAKE THE BREEZE….-28
*FIENDISH FLAME….-35
MICHAEL FLIPS….-35
MR GARDNER….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – PLEIN POUVOIR, BIG FELLA THANKS, TULLAMORE DEW
20/80 – PLEIN POUVOIR
EXOTICS – PLEIN POUVOIR, BIG FELLA THANKS, TULLAMORE DEW
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Another Nicholls horse, top rated but, yet to win on the heavy. I’m going to be right about these horses or, those that work purely with my top rated will be rubbing my nose in it at the end of racing. I can only work with the three best rated, proven on heavy and that’s them above.

NEWCASTLE 1-05

*PEAKS OF FIRE….-30
ENDEAVOR….-35
ONE FOR HARRY….-35
GOODLUKIN LUCY….-35
LAKEMAN….-40
BUNRATTY….-40

ADVICE – The racing here today is awful. If you play either rated race just work with the highest rated horse, proven on heavy. Here it’s my top one.

NEWCASTLE 2-50

SAM PATCH….-23
*SOUL ANGEL….-25
*PANTHERS RUN….-35
DINGO BAY….-40
MAN OF PRINCIPLES….-40
FIGHTSTAR….-40
SHOAL BAY DREAMER….-40
VARDAS SUPREME….-40

ADVICE – Here it is SOUL ANGEL but in all honesty, you only punt either race if you are gagging for a bet.

OF INTEREST

PENDRA (Sandown 2-25) – 20/80
UN AMI (Chepstow 12-25) – 20/80
BENVOLIO (Wincanton 12-55) – 20/80

Have a brilliant day and the very best of luck if you are punting this afternoon

Kindest regards

Ron

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