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Today’s Ratings and Advice 01/12/12

I’ve awoken to it raining cats and dogs again. It just doesn’t give up, does it.

Well, yesterday can be best described as sparkling, me thinks. Good old FAIR ALONG came good for the first time since 2010 and didn’t he win cosy, too. Top rated on my figures and advised in the dutch….wonderful decision making to run with DESTROYER DEPLOYED (cannot hurdle to save its life). for my single play….not….but I’ve settled for my profit off the race and am happy enough. A nice winner in KINGS GREY, a successful laying of BALLYBOUGH PAT in that Newbury 2-40 and everything was right in my world.

Can I just advise you that tomorrow’s ratings will be late. It’s my wedding anniversary and we will be staying somewhere posh for a night. It may even be I don’t get the figures out until after noon and if that is the case and it causes a problem, my apologies in advance. You do know what would happen if I didn’t do what a man has to do though, don’t you!

Let’s crack straight into today….

Assumptions made:

NEWBURY – CHASE COURSE, GOOD TO SOFT, HURDLES COURSE, SOFT, GOOD TO SOFT IN PLACES

NEWCASTLE – SOFT, HEAVY IN PLACES, FROZEN IN PLACES, INSPECTION 8-00AM

TOWCESTER – SOFT, GOOD TO SOFT IN PLACES

 

NEWBURY 2-35

SALUBRIOUS….+10

PRINCELY PLAYER….+9

AT FISHERS CROSS….+9

HUNTING TOWER….+2

ARDLUI….-4

KINGCORA….-15

STAR OF ANGELS….-19

SCOTS GAELIC….-23

PASSATO….-31

TOPOLSKI….-40

 

THREE TO DUTCH – SALUBRIOUS, PRINCELY PLAYER, AT FISHERS CROSS

20/80 – SALUBRIOUS

EXOTICS – SALUBRIOUS, PRINCELY PLAYER, AT FISHERS CROSS

LAY – NONE

 

ADVICE – I have three crowding the top of my figures and a tissue favourite on a minus figure at number five on my ratings. Not quite a lay because of that position but he looks beatable. he improved nicely on the flat this season but that’s not the same as improving over hurdles, which he needs to do. I’m happy enough with my numbers and will play them as they have fallen.

 

NEWBURY 3-10

CARRUTHERS….+11

ROBERTO GOLDBACK….+10

TIDAL BAY….+10

BOB’S WORTH….+10

DUKE OF LUCCA….+9

TEAFORTHREE….+6

DIAMOND HARRY….+2

THE PACKAGE….-5

HARRY THE VIKING….-7

HOLD ON JULIO….-9

SAINT ARE….-13

IKORODU ROAD….-17

FRISCO DEPOT….-22

ALFIE SPINNER….-26

LION NA BEARNAI….-35

FIRST LIEUTENANT….-35

FRUITY O’ROONEY….-40

MAGNANIMITY….-40

SOLL….-40

 

THREE TO DUTCH – ROBERTO GOLDBACK, TIDAL BAY, BOBS WORTH

20/80 – ROBERTO GOLDBACK

EXOTICS – ROBERTO GOLDBACK, TIDAL BAY, BOBS WORTH

LAY – NONE

 

ADVICE – I hope I’ve done the right thing dropping my top rated. If he wins, I’ll just hold my hands up and take it on the chin. The handicap proper ties in nicely with my figures and the three I have opted to work with are at the top of the racecard. This is probably my favourite race of the season. I like the challenge of solving it and hopefully I’ve got the henderson pair in the right order. they come out the same horse on the numbers but a criteria I apply once my figures are compiled suggests ROBERTO GOLDBACK will beat his better fancied stable companion today. Of course, you could apply the stat that tells us three of the last five winners of this race were making their seasonal debut, in which case, I’ve got them wrong. We’ll all be much wiser come 3-20pm.

 

NEWBURY 3-40

CONSIGLIERE….+16

ULCK DU LIN….+12

WEST WITH THE WIND….+9

KATEAL….+9

COMEHOMEQUIETLY….+7

RENARD….+3

TATISPOUT….-8

MICHEAL FLIPS….-12

OH CRICK….-16

TAKEROC….-18

FIFTYONEFIFTYONE….-20

FALCON ISLAND….-22

GUS MACRAE….-25

MANGER HANAGMENT….-28

ON TREND….-30

 

THREE TO DUTCH – CONSIGLIERE, ULCK DU LIN, KATEAL

20/80 – CONSIGLIERE

EXOTICS – CONSIGLIERE, ULCK DU LIN, KATEAL

LAY – NONE

 

ADVICE – Seriously competitive end to the days racing here and any of my top six could take it….RENARD keeps winking at me! I will again trust my figures but I’ll also be binning my third best, simply because we have a horse seemingly bang out of form carrying top weight, in a race choc full of decent chasers in form.

 

NEWCASTLE 12-35

SHADOW BOXER….+10

TWICE LUCKY….+9

JASPERITO….-2

QUINDER SPRING….-10

MAMATA DE TENDRON….-16

BEAU DANDY….-20

MANSONIEN L’AS….-20

SAMMY SPIDERMAN….-24

NICKY TAM….-32

SAVILLE ROW….-35

BORIS THE BLADE….-40

HAWTHORNE BAY….-40

 

ADVICE – Can I be brutally honest? I would not have a bet on racing here unless I was 100% happy I knew what it is they are racing on. If the freeze does come out of the ground, then this will be like a glue pot. Heavy will not describe it. My top three here will have as much chance of winning as anything in the race….more if my numbers are right but, I’ll only be punting pennies to find out.

 

NEWCASTLE 1-45

PAPA CARUSO….+1

FLYING SQUAD….-4

SNAPPING TURTLE….-6

PAMAK D’AIRY….-9

WHATS UP WOODY….-15

MCMURROUGH….-22

SAMENERVE….-27

BILLY CUCKOO….-30

BERTIE MILAN….-31

WHAT A DREAM….-40

 

ADVICE – I refer you to the comments above. Four of these have previously won on the official going description of soft. That’s going to be a help, not. Best of luck if you punt this, you are gooing to need it.

 

Proof of just how bad this is going to be is the field left to contest the Fighting Fifth. Just four go to post for that Grade 1 hurdle and the top guns aint there. I hope they do call it off, reopen this race and run it when they get some decent ground again.

 

TOWCESTER 1-35

WAYWOOD PRINCESS….+10

ATHERSTONE HILL….+8

EARCOMESTHEDREAM….+6

FREE FALLING….-8

OUR JIM….-11

GENNY WREN….-13

MOLLY OSCAR….-22

CARMELA MARIA….-25

FUTURE DOMINION….-25

BOBBIE MAGERN….-29

DESTINED FOR FAME….-39

WESTWIRE TOBY….-40

HAZY DAWN….-40

HIGHLAND BRAVE….-40

 

ADVICE – Some clown at the Tote has looked at this meeting and decided to have two of the worst races being run on planet earth today, in their Scoop 6 play. This is one of them, the other is the 2-45, a conditional handicap jockey’s Handicap Chase, just six runners, only two of which have managed to win a race since April 2011. The favourite has never won a race, has had just the one run in the last 18 months, and I have to try and win this thing for our syndicate. This rated race is equally as shocking. October Rules or nowt…simple as that and, the nowt comes across as the more sensible option.

 

OF INTEREST

CALL ME A STAR (Newbury 12-50) – straight win

GODSMEJUDGE (Newbury) – 20/80

 

Have a great day and the very best of luck if you are getting involved

 

Kindest regards

 

Ron

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