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Today’s Ratings and Advice 28/12/12

So far it’s been a case of my “trying to get things done” but being the time of year it is, with family dropping in etc., I’ve opted to leave my website work until the doorbell stops ringing. I’ve two pieces in the “drafts” section of the site engine room and today I’ve got to pop out to Chester to meet up with my brother, who is travelling up from the Midlands, for the ritual of the present exchange….

I think I have developed a heavy ground system! Just punt the top rated horses to level stakes and BINGO!

In the last two days anyone applying that system would be 13.25pts up! Probably nonsense, really….even if it is true. That one 6/1 shot yesterday, from the four races rated, did the business quite nicely….even if I was pretty down on that as a horse race!

It is official. This year has been the wettest year on record, for England. I doubt anyone reading needed telling that. We can see a million and one pictures of people sailing up High Streets on the internet, any time we like. In all my time on the planet, I’ve not seen anything like it. We can only hope that whatever is going on fixes itself in time for a) Cheltenham and b) the 2013 flat racing season, because I do not want another 12 months of looking over my shoulder when it comes to punting horse races.

It’s Leicester and Catterick today….if the first named passes an 8-00am inspection.

ASSUMPTIONS:

LEICESTER – HURDLE TRACK HEAVY, CHASE TRACK SOFT
CATTERICK – SOFT, HEAVY IN PLACES

* Indicates horses having previously won on going conditions assumed.

LEICESTER 2-40 (‘chase)

*MASTER MILAN….+10
TAFIKA….+1
PATSY FINNEGAN….+/-0
BAILEYS CONCERTO….-2
RED ROUBLE….-2
GLOBAL FLYER….-11
*CIRCUS OF DREAMS….-17
ONEFORFUN….-27
THE BLACK BARON….-31
BALLYWATT….-40
MASKED MAN….-40
HEAVENSTOWN….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – MASTER MILAN, TAFIKA, PATSY FINNEGAN
20/80 – MASTER MILAN
EXOTICS – MASTER MILAN, TAFIKA, PATSY FINNEGAN
LAY – BALLYWATT

ADVICE – Two of my top three rated failed to complete last time we saw them and TAFIKA is currently running up a sequence of letters a Scrabble player would lob back into the bag. The thing about TAFIKA though is, his two previous runs around this course and distance have thrown up a win and a runners up spot. In fact, six of the 12 runners currently scheduled to go to post didn’t get round last time up. I might be enticed by RED ROUBLE, who represents last years winning connections, is in form, has a course win to his name and whilst no winning form on anything worse than good ground, has placed on four of his six starts on soft/heavy….but that’s “making allowances” and that’s just as bad as using guesswork! I could, I suppose, play my new “system” and punt my top rated or, do as indicated above because one of the two proven on soft sits top. I think I’ll probably do that.

LEICESTER 3-40 (hurdle)

BIN END….+10
*MALANOS….+9
*SCORCHED SON….-11
LUGGERS HALL….-12
HEADLY’S BRIDGE….-19
*ALWAYSTHEOPTIMIST….-25
LATERLY….-35
STRUANMORE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – BIN END, MALANOS, SCORCHED SON
20/80 – BIN END
EXOTICS – BIN END, MALANOS, SCORCHED SON
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Not one I’ll be involved in myself. My third best was well beaten in a much better race yesterday and you have to doubt him turning out again. My top rated won a five runner race in which one refused and one fell, my second highest rated has been tailed off on his last two starts….and he finished behind my fourth highest rated (just), in one of those. So, stick or twist?

CATTERICK 12-50

*MARINO PRINCE….+10
*TERENZIUM….+6
QUITE SPARKY….-13
COVERHOLDER….-18
GUMND….-35
SHAKER STYLE….-40
MIND SHOWER….-40
RITA SPEAK….-40
COPT HILL….-40
NAPOLETANO….-40
TOPO GIGIO….-40
DOLLY ROYAL….-40

ADVICE – I’m not going to suggest anyone does anything with this race. I have only rated it because it’s a handicap, even if only a selling one, at that. The two at the top of the handicap proper sit top of my figures and MARINO PRINCE, whose current form figures are 074PP0F, is the tissue favourite. He was leading when he tipped up a couple of days ago at Market Rasen, with just two to jump and he’s as likely a winner as any so, perhaps use my new “system”?

CATTERICK 1-20

*ANTONIUS CAESAR….+18
AVENGING ACE….+8
*FRIDAYTHORPE….+1
CAPTAIN NASH….-16
ESME RIDES A GAINE….-26
BORDERHOPPER….-28
NOBLE WITNESS….-40
AMROTH BAY….-40

ADVICE – Another race in which playing just a level stake on my top rated might yield a dividend. He looks a seriously brittle horse though, who needs seriously long breaks between races and his soft ground win came way back in 2006, at Vichy. You would simply not trust any of these as far as you could throw them and staking, if I get involved at all, will reflect that fact.

OF INTEREST

CHAT ROOM (Catterick 1-50) – straight win
CARMELA MARIA (CATTERICK 3-20) – 20/80
LEOPARD HILLS (Leicester 1-40) – straight win
DENALI HIGHWAY (Leicester 2-10) – straight win

Very much a day for low staking, if you do opt to play but have a good one, whatever you decide to do.

Kindest regards

Ron

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