Breaking News
Home / Today's Newsletter / Today’s Ratings and Advice 15/12/12

Today’s Ratings and Advice 15/12/12

I imagine a few of you are thanking me through gritted teeth for suggesting the best course of action was not to punt if the going turned nasty yesterday? I know those that simply trusted to my figures were e-mailed me and messaging me with words such as BOOM….then BOOM BOOM….as winners the winners pinged in. The fact is, those playing very much got away with it. My Cheltenham figures were absolutely spot on but whether those highly rated would act on heavy ground, described by Paddy Brennan, the rider of SUPER DUTY, as the worst the course has ever ridden, was absolute guesswork. I knew DARK LOVER would handle soft and did say I would punt that one singly if it went softer but I didn’t, because it was softer than soft. I missed a top rated, 16 length winner, at 9/2.

Very much worse was to come though as my top three rated, in the absence of MIDNIGHT COURT, produced a 342/1 tricast. That was the BOOM BOOM.

It really was a day when everything went right, but also went wrong…for me.

One of our number posted on my Facebook wall, that he was the only one shouting MASTER OVERSEER home whilst standing in the bar at Cheltenham. He has now vowed to join the 500 Club but we’ll see if that was the adrenalin/Guinness mixture talking later today! Glad you had a good day though, sir, regardless of what you decide to do.

So, we know it’s heavy now. We know it’ll be tough but, hopefully we can trust my figures again to produce the goods.

ASSUMPTIONS:

CHELTENHAM – HEAVY, SOFT IN PLACES
DONCASTER – GOOD, GOOD TO SOFT IN PLACES
LINGFIELD – HEAVY, INSPECTION 7-30AM

CHELTENHAM 1-20
CHELTENHAM 2-30
DONCASTER 1-35
DONCASTER 2-10
DONCASTER 3-20
LINGFIELD 12-35
LINGFIELD 1-10
LINGFIELD 2-20
LINGFIELD 2-55

Please click on the link above to take you to the race you wish to view.

CHELTENHAM 1-20

SHOOTERS WOOD….+8
OISEAU DE NUIT….+6
GARYNELLA….-2
PEPITE ROSE….-8
OH CRICK….-9
HIS EXCELLENCY….-20
LANCETTO….-30
WEST WITH THE WIND….-35
IMPERIAL SHABRA….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – OISEAU DE NUIT, GARYNELLA, OH CRICK
20/80 – OISEAU DE NUIT
EXOTICS – OISEAU DE NUIT, GARYNELLA, OH CRICK
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – My top rated has nothing in the formbook to suggest he’ll enjoy juice in the ground and, whilst he did us a massive turn a month ago, I’ll take a chance it was the going and not the trip that saw him mullahed the last time he encountered ground on the sift side. If it was the trip I’ll look a plank….shades of yesterday then, eh.

CHELTENHAM 2-30

QUANTITATIVEEASING….+10
CRISTAL BONUS….+9
NADIYA DE LA VEGA….+2
WISHFULL THINKING….-6
NOTUS DE LA TOUR….-12
WALKON….-14
TARTAK….-16
UNIONISTE….-19
ASTRACAD….-21
HELL’S BAY….-22
GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN….-24
RENARD….-33
DE BOITRON….-40
TATANEN….-40
MICHEAL FLIPS….-40
HAVE YOU SEEN ME….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – QUANTITATIVEEASING, NADIYA DE LA VEGA, NOTUS DE LA TOUR
20/80 – NADIYA DE LA VEGA
EXOTICS – QUATNATITIVEEASING, NADIYA DE LA VEGA, NOTUS DE LA TOUR
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – This race has me reaching for the paracetamol. i know that the Paddy power is generally a good guide to the winner of this race. they don’t need to have won that race, merely performed well in it and NADIYA DE LA VEGA, WALKON and ASTRACAD did just that. If one of those wins today, you could say it was “expected”. Two ways of looking at WALKON. His “profile” is very much that of a winner waiting to happen but, in each of the last two seasons he has produced a good run fresh, only to get beaten next time up. The ground should be no problem though and I’ll certainly have him in the Scoop 6 syndicate entry. One I wont have in is CRISTAL BONUS. Last season I indicated this horse seems to only enjoy racing in small fields. Give him a double figure entry to race against and he bombs out. On the day I pointed this out last year, he pulled up. His rating suggests he can win this, the ground wont be an issue but until he proves my theory wrong, I’m against him.
I’m keen to keep the Henderson pair onside. Last years winner tops my figures and with going conditions fine I’m expecting a better run than that we saw a month back. It was a toss of the coin job between WISHFULL THINKING and NOTUS DE LA TOUR for third spot in my dutch. I have opted for the Pipe runner by virtue of the fact I’ve got a similar feeling about the Hobbs horse and big fields plus, will his jumping hold up? That weight on that ground should also be a “stopper”, too. NOTUS DE LA TOUR gets the Dutch gig. Goes well fresh, ground fine and he’ll have been trained for this.

DONCASTER 1-35

MEETINGS MAN….+13
ULYS DU CHARMIL….+9
SIMPLY NED….-1
HARVEY’S HOPE….-1
ROBBIE….-2
INGLEBY SPIRIT….-4
CRAFTY ROBERTO….-7
FIENDISH FLAME….-15
TARUMA….-18

THREE TO DUTCH – MEETINGS MAN, ULYS DU CHARMIL, SIMPLY NED
20/80 – MEETINGS MAN
EXOTICS – MEETINGS MAN, ULYS DU CHARMIL, SIMPLY NED
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Trip and going (can it really be good?) fine for my top three and with no ghosts to seek out I’ll simply work as my numbers suggest and pray it is genuine good racing ground over there.

DONCASTER 2-10

CRIQTONIC….+9
MIDNIGHT SAIL….+9
EASTER METEOR….+8
NICEONEFRANKIE….-8
BATTLE GROUP….-13
DIVERS….-21
COOTEHILL….-24
ZITENKA….-25
TAKE THE BREEZE….-27

THREE TO DUTCH – CRIQTONIC, MIDNIGHT SAIL, EASTER METOER
20/80 – MIDNIGHT SAIL
EXOTICS – CRIQTONIC, MIDNIGHT SAIL, EASTER METEOR
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – My top three front the tissue and things look “right”. however, i’ve opted for my 20/80 play on the basis he’s the only one of that trio to have previously won on good ground….it’ll be the first time my top rated has even seen it!

DONCASTER 3-20

IKORODU ROAD….+15
MR CRACKER….+14
CORKAGE….+8
QUENTIN COLLONGES….-2
COURT BY SURPRISE….-4
DOOR BOY….-6
ELEAZAR….-8
HELPSTON….-9
NIGHT IN MILAN….-11
DE BOITRON….-12
TIME FOR SPRING….-15
NATAANI….-18
KING FONTAINE….-19
MR MOONSHINE….-24
MISSTREE DANCER….-32
PENTIFFIC….-37

THREE TO DUTCH – IKORODU ROAD, MR CRACKER, CORKAGE
20/80 – IKORODU ROAD
EXOTICS – IKORODU ROAD, MR CRACKER, CORKAGE
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Has a whiff of the impossible about it. Thirteen of these will be more than happy on the ground, the trip is perfect for at least 10 of them and it’s simply wide open….in which case I’ll just trust my figures and be right, or wrong.

LINGFIELD 12-35

DELGANY GUNNER….+16
NEWTON TONIC….+13
TAKE OVER SIVOLA….+8
TIME TO THINK….-4
SPEAR THISTLE….-4
RINGA BAY….-10

TWO TO DUTCH – NEWTON TONIC, TIME TO THINK
20/80 – NEWTON TONIC
EXOTICS – NEWTON TONIC, TIME TO THINK
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – I can only suggest we work with horses having previously won on slop and I have simply taken a pair of horses rated best, having done so.

LINGFIELD 1-10

TANERKO EMERY….+12
SCOTTISH BOOGIE….+11
UNIK DE NOUGI….+9
GENERAL TING….-9
CAUGHT BY WITNESS….-17
PETIT ECUYER….-22
COLEBROOKE….-25
LINDSAY’S DREAM….-30
YA HAAFED….-35

THREE TO DUTCH – NO DUTCH
STRAIGHT WIN – TANERKO EMERY
EXOTICS – NO EXOTICS
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – My top rated missed a race at Cheltenham to wait for this easy option and he should, all things being equal, win. He is one of only two in here having won on heavy, the other being my 5th best and it does look a “shoe-in”

LINGFIELD 2-20

STAR OF ANGELS….+10
SIRCOZY….-3
GRAFITE….-10
TAKE THE BREEZE….-15
EL DANCER….-19
TIMESAWASTIN….-22
LAMPS….-32
WESTLIN’ WINDS….-34
SNAKE CHARMER….-37
DUNE SHINE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – STAR OF ANGELS, SIRCOZY, GRAFITE
20/80 – STAR OF ANGELS
EXOTICS – STAR OF ANGELS, SIRCOZY, GRAFITE
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – You punt this at your peril. October Rules or nothing.

LINGFIELD 2-55

NODEBATEABOUTIT….+13
AFRICAN BROADWAY….+9
STRONGBOWS LEGEND….-10
WELL REFRESHED….-17
MOHI RAHRERE….-25
CARPINCHO….-35
RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE….-37
LEG IRON….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – NODEBATEABOUTIT, AFRICAN BROADWAY, STRONGBOWS LEGEND
20/80 – NODEBATEABOUTIT
EXOTICS – NODEBATEABOUTIT, AFRICAN BROADWAY, STRONGBOWS LEGEND
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Another race very much ranking an October Rules or nowt kinda race. Only MOHI RAHRERE  has winning form on heavy and it’s certainly minimal staking if you do get involved.

OF INTEREST

I wont be advising anything at either Cheltenham or Lingfield, simply because of the ground.

ZARU (Doncaster 11-55) – 20/80

Today I have something a little extra for you. We have been looking for a football pundit and we have secured the services of an ex-pro, currently plying his trade as the “man in black” in Scotland. He has sent through his first piece for us to consider and whilst, from next week, everything will be on the website only, here is today’s advice from Paul Taylor

“It’s the weekend again. Up and down the country, punters will be studying hard to pick their winning line. Placing their bets, then tuning into Jeff and friends to watch the stories unfold. What could be better….I’ll tell u what, someone else doing the hard work for you!
That’s where I come in, I’ll be using the experience I gained from 10 years as a pro, a further 7 years coaching at 2 Scottish Premier clubs to bring u winning lines, so sit back and let me do the work.
This Saturday I have a tasty treble worth getting stuck into:
MK DONS.  2/5
FALKIRK.  4/6
CLUB BRUGES.  4/9
The Dons are set to bounce back from last week’s reverse. They had a few players under the weather, no excuses this week though.
Falkirk will prove to strong at home for Cowdenbeath, who haven’t won in their last 5 matches.
Finally, Club Bruges, been watching them closely recently and they’re playing much better than their mid table position suggests. A solid addition to the treble which pays over 2/1 with bet 365.
Once you’ve collected on these, take a look at this super single on Sunday:
PADERBORN away from home in Bundesliga 2. Three wins and a draw in their last five away games makes them an unbelievable bet at 19/10, again with bet 365.
Get on!!!

Have a great weekend and the very best of luck with your punting

Kindest regards

Ron

About Ron

Check Also

Today’s Ratings and OF INTEREST selections 09/11/17

One of the horses we were involved in runs for his new yard today. TOWER …