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Today’s Ratings and Advice 11/12/12

I was seriously pleased with the figures yesterday. It had looked a very tough job I had on, squeezing profits from what looked seriously competitive racing but the figures performed superbly well, as you can see below:

MUSSELBURGH 1-20

RED TANBER….+19
SWIFT ARROW….+9 – WON 11/2
KEALIGOLANE….+7 – 3RD 33/1
GLENCREE….+4
HOUSTON DYNIMO….+3
QUITO DU TRESOR….+/-0
CREEKSIDE….-1
CIVIL UNREST….-12
HAZY TOM….-15
FRDDIE BROWN….-23

THREE TO DUTCH – RED TANBER, GLENCREE, QUITO DU TRESOR
20/80 – RED TANBER
EXOTICS – RED TANBER, GLENCREE, QUITO DU TRESOR
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Cracking good racing here today, if they get the green light. I will know before I finish this, if they have. The three I have selected, from my top six rated horses, have all won on good to soft but it will ride slower than that, if a heavy frost has got in. I will know by 1-00pm if it has and will do my best to update everyone using Facebook, Twitter and the new website….just check out the Twitter feed on the home page.
RESULT – My own decision making was poor but with two of the first three home in my top three, I have to be more than happy with the way this panned out.

MUSSELBURGH 1-50

*EVERAARD….+12 – 3RD 11/2 > 4/1
UNCUT STONE….+9 – 2ND 16/1
BENMADIGAN….+8 – 4TH 17/2
*FRONTIER BOY….-1
VALLANI….-13
JAGO RIVER….-15
WORD OF WARNING….-25
MOMKINZAIN….-28
*EVERDON BROOK….-35
I GOT SUNSHINE….-36
GLASSON LAD….-38
RELAND….-40
PYJAMA GAME….-40
POLITICAL PADDY….-40
ERYCINA….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – EVERAARD, UNCUT STONE, BENMADIGAN
20/80 – UNCUT STONE
EXOTICS – EVERAARD, UNCUT STONE, BENMADIGAN
LAY – EVERDON BROOK

ADVICE – Tricky. Only three of these has winning form on good to soft…indicated by the *….and one of them is my lay. it will not carry much by way of the shekels but I’ll work with my top three and play my second highest rated 20/80 simply because he is totally unexposed and can surely only improve.
RESULT – The suggested lay won this…not that he would ever have been laid at that price….but my top three rated came home just behind it and again, my figures really did give me a warm rosy glow. For a few seconds I was congratulating myself on having found UNCUT STONE but he didn’t quite have the winners finish in his legs and it was diamond was just slightly flawed.

MUSSELBURGH 2-20

RUMBLE OF THUNDER….+10
PARC DES PRINCES….+8 – WON 20/1
ULTIMATE….+8 – 5TH 14/1
SKINT….+7
UBALTIQUE….+4 – 2ND 13/2
CASTLETOWN BRIDGE….+2
HI GEORGE….-6
GOLDAN JESS….-13
MASON HINDMARSH….-15
ROCK RELIEF….-16
PARSON’S PUNCH….-19
GRAND DIAMOND….-21
LATIN CONNECTION….-25
MASTERFUL ACT….-28
SAMSTOWN….-32

THREE TO DUTCH – RUMBLE OF THUNDER, PARC DES PRINCES, ULTIMATE
20/80 – PARC DES PRINCES
EXOTICS – RUMBLE OF THUNDER, PARC DES PRINCES, ULTIMATE
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – I do not like the feeling this race is giving me at all. only my top rated, in my top six, has winning form on good to soft and with the trip a huge question mark over his head, I suggest you either play to my October Rules or, just watch this one.
RESULT – Terrific bit of decision making, if I may say so myself. Winner, 2nd & 5th in my top five rated, a lovely 20/80 on the winner and the dutch landed, too.

MUSSELBURGH 2-50

STORMING GALE….+12 – 4TH 12/1
ISLA PERAL FISHER….+9 – WON 12/1 > 8/1
BLENHEIM BROOK….+9 – 2ND 3/1
CATEGORICAL….+8
TYRONE HOUSE….+4
BALDING BANKER….-4 – 3RD 13/2
O CROTAIGH….-7
MONTOYA’S SON….-10
POSH BIRD….-12
ETXALAR….-15
PEACHEY MOMENT….-17
DAWN COMMANDER….-25
SOLWAY BAY….-36
FORTYSECOND STREET….-36

THREE TO DUTCH – STORMING GALE, ISLA PEARL FISHER, BLENHEIM BROOK
20/80 – STORMING GALE
EXOTICS – STORMING GALE, ISLA PEARL FISHER, BLENHEIM BROOK
LAY – DAWN COMMANDER

ADVICE – Another very competitive, very tricky one to solve. Everything in my top six has winning form on the going as currently described so my only real option is to trust my numbers.
RESULT – Another wonderful result. Dutch landed, which produces my profits, a 32/1 CSF, 28/1 exacta and just half a length off all bets being landed.

FAKENHAM 1-30

LILAC BELLE….+19
MON DESIR….+11
IF I HAD HIM….+10
AJMAN….+9
WILY FOX….+8
SCOTSBROOK LEGEND….+/-0
DUNASKIN….-13
WHITE DIAMOND….-15
DREAM RISK….-20
CATAWOLLOW….-29
LISDONAGH HOUSE….-35
SHILPA….-40 – WON 33/1
WOM….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – LILAC BELLE, MON DESIR, IF I HAD HIM
20/80 – LILAC BELLE
EXOTICS – LILAC BELLE, MON DESIR, IF I HAD HIM
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Another very competitive, very tricky race to solve. I’m actually enjoying the chase today! If I have this right then it’ll be a whistles and bells moment up Wirral way but to be honest I fancy a few of these to run well, WILY FOX amongst them so very much a case of me trusting my figures again on what is a very competitive, busy afternoon of racing.
RESULT – I would not have found this winner using bat sonar….but I know a man who will have done. I;m going to look again at the system one member has of working with those horses obtaining a -40 figure in certain handicaps because he has secured a couple of cracking good results recently.

FAKENHAM 2-30

PHARE ISLE….+14 – 3RD 12/1
LIEUTENANT MILLER….+14 – 2ND 2/1
JIVE MASTER….+11
THE GOOD GUY….+5
WHO OWNS ME….-6
MANSHOOR….-12
NEZ ROUGE….-20
GO AMWELL….-27
OCCASIONALLY YOURS….-31
OSCAR’S SECRET….-33

THREE TO DUTCH – PHARE ISLE, LIEUTENANT MILLER, JIVE MASTER
20/80 – PHARE ISLE
EXOTICS – PHARE ISLE, LIEUTENANT MILLER, JIVE MASTER
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Another race in which if I’m right, Santa has come early. I feel like I’m playing Russian roulette today and I’m hoping it’s an empty chamber that’s dropped into place!
RESULT – Well done to the member that e-mailed me recently telling me WHO OWNS ME would win again next time out….he owns a share in the horse and they achieved another good result here. I thought we had you beat jumping the last but your fella stuck on really well. Congratulations.

TODAY

Both meetings are subject to inspections and it may all prove academic but, this is what we have for this afternoon….

ASSUMPTIONS:

SEDGEFIELD – SOFT
FONTWELL – SOFT, HEAVY IN PLACES

Both tracks have anticipated a frost and you all know by now, what that can do to already soft ground.

FONTWELL 2-10

BILLYBO….+9
KILVERGAN BOY….+9
WILD GROUND….-1
MIGHT AS WELL….-14
BALLINHASSIG….-21
DESTINED FOR FAME….-21

ADVICE – Two options really. One of my top two will win this race. Most likely the top one but who wants to be punting long odds on in a handicap. We either leave this race alone or, take a flyer and punt KILVERGAN BOY 20/80. I will be leaving it alone.

FONTWELL 2-40

VAN DIEMANS LAND….+8
LATIN AMERICA….+2
KIJIVU….-2
SUN QUEST….-7
FITANDPROPERJOB….-7
LAVA LAMP….-19
YA HAFED….-26
CRYSTAL SWING….-27
WALDEN PRINCE….-27
INVICTA LAKE….-32
KNOCKGRAFFON LAD….-37
BORDER STATION….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – VAN DIEMANS LAND, LATIN AMERICA, KIJIVU
20/80 – LATIN AMERICA
EXOTICS – VAN DIEMANS LAND, LATIN AMERICAM KIJIVU
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Has the aura of a head scratcher, this one. I’ll play it to my October Rules levels of staking as none of these looks up to much of anything at all and we’ll just see if the figures do their job.

FONTWELL 3-10

BROUSSE EN FEUX….+9
LAPIN GARDU….+9
SULPIUS….-2
SOLITARY PALM….-11
HIMAYNA….-21
ROCK SALMON….-32
SOMERBY….-40
MIDNIGHT CHARMER….-40
JOIN THE NAVY….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – BROUSSE EN FEUX, LAPIN GARDU, SULPIUS
20/80 – BROUSSE EN FEUX
EXOTICS – BROUSSE EN FEUX, LAPIN GARDU, SULPIUS
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Another race in which the combatants could hardly be described as Spartacus-like. If it’ll hurt to win, they’ll duck it. I will just run with what I have and see if anything comes back.

FONTWELL 3-40

BUDDY LOVE….+11
OLD MAGIC….+9
MORESTEAD….-4
BALUSTRADE….-6
OSCAR FLYER….-9
FRAN’S FOLLY….-18
THE OMEN….-21
ALACCORDION….-25
TIMETORING….-30
CARBIS BAY….-36
AUREATE….-40
WHITCOMBE SPIRIT….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – BUDDY LOVE, OLD MAGIC, MORESTEAD
20/80 – BUDDY LOVE
EXOTICS – BUDDY LOVE, OLD MAGIC, MORESTEAD
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Once again I will just work with my figures and play as described. No point me looking for ghosts here today and it will simply be a case of I’m right, or I’m wrong.

SEDGEFIELD 1-50

BALLYBRIGGAN….+10
STANLEY BRIDGE….+9
THE THIRSTY BRICKY….-8
ALTA ROCK….-11
LIGHTENING ROD….-16
ASTEROID BELT….-22
PERTUIS….-23
SAM LORD….-34
SNOWED IN….-38

THREE TO DUTCH – BALLYBRIGGAN, STANLEY BRIDGE, THE THIRSTY BRICKY
20/80 – BALLYBRIGGAN
EXOTICS – BALLYBRIGGAN, STANLEY BRIDGE, THE THIRSTY BRICKY
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – This is an interesting race and probably the one I’m looking forward to most….doesn’t say much then, does it! Top three for all of my bets and hopefully the runes have fallen correctly.

OF INTEREST

WITNESS IN COURT (Sedgefield 12-50) – straight win
GWLADYS STREET (Sedgefield 2-50) – 20/80
SEALOUS SCOUT (Sedgefield 3-20) – 20/80
CHENDIYR (Fontwell 12-40) – place only
VENETIAN LAD (Fontwell 1-10) – straight win
BREAKING BITS (Fontwell 1-40) – straight win

Have a great day and the very best of luck….off to Liverpool today to finish off the Christmas shopping….

Kindest regards

Ron

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