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Today’s ratings and Advice 08/12/12

Ron RobinsonAll things considered, I came away from the computers yesterday a very happy man.

The lone rated race yielded up a superb 16/1 top rated winner in ARBOR SUPREME, the OF INTEREST selections saw two produce profit, which included the winner of the Sandown opener, punted from 16/1 > 7/1…always nice when one you spot does something like that….and I would hope everyone was happy.

Today we have four meetings to work with and the one thing we do know is, the going will be testing at all tracks. That’s not a problem when it’s a “constant’ and we can work with that.

ASSUMPTIONS:

SANDOWN – HURDLE COURSE HEAVY, SOFT IN PLACES – CHASE COURSE SOFT, GOOD TO SOFT IN PLACES
AINTREE – NATIONAL COURSE HEAVY, MILDMAY COURSE SOFT, GOOD TO SOFT IN  PLACES, HURDLE COURSE SOFT, HEAVY IN PLACES
CHEPSTOW – HEAVY
WETHERBY – SOFT, HEAVY IN PLACES

TODAY’S RACES

Please just click on the link to take you to the race you wish to visit.

SANDOWN 12-55
SANDOWN 1-25
SANDOWN 2-30
SANDOWN 3-40
AINTREE 2-10
AINTREE 2-45
AINTREE 3-20
CHEPSTOW 2-05
CHEPSTOW 2-40
CHEPSTOW 3-15
WETHERBY 1-15
WETHERBY 1-45
WETHERBY 2-20

SANDOWN 12-55

ONE LUCKY LADY….+9
KENTFORD GREY LADY….-3
*SOUTHWAY STAR….-4
JUSTAZIPPY….-11
FLORAFERN….-12
*ROSAIRLIE….-15
ALL ANNALENA….-23
*KYLENOE FAIRY….-25
TEMPEST RIVER….-31
DOLLY PENROSE….-38

THREE TO DUTCH – ONE LUCKY LADY, KENTFORD GREY LADY, SOUTHWAY STAR
20/80 – ONE LUCKY LADY
EXOTICS – ONE LUCKY LADY, KENBTFORD GREY LADY, SOUTHWAY STAR
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – I have given myself two options here, just run with my figures or, work only with those horses having previously won on heavy ground….they have been marked *….I think I will just run with my figures.

SANDOWN 1-25

SAM WINNER….+4
*LIGHTNING STRIKE….-8
TOPOLSKI….-8
ARALDUR….-12
BIG EASY….-22
GILBARRY….-30
ARKOSE….-32
ART PROFESSOR….-35
AMIGO….-35
SON OF FLICKA….-40
CLOUDY BOB….-40
KASBADALI….-40
HOLLINS….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – SAM WINNER, LIGHTNING STRIKE, TOPOLSKI
20/80 – SAM WINNER
EXOTICS – SAM WINNER, LIGHTNING STRIKE, TOPOLSKI
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Only my second highest rated has winning form on heavy so very much a case of everyone in the same boat….in which case, I’ll again trust my figures are correct.

SANDOWN 2-30

PETIT ROBIN….+2
MONTE CAVALLO….-5
STARLUCK….-10
SOFTSONG….-12
DOLATULO….-21
RAJAMAND….-26
CANADIAN DIAMOND….-32
HELIUM….-32
IFANDBUTWHYNOT….-34
INTO WAIN….-34
ROWAN TIGER….-40
SWAMPFIRE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – PETIT ROBIN, MONTE CAVALLO, STARLUCK
20/80 – PETIT ROBIN
EXOTICS – PETIT ROBIN, MONTE CAVALLO, STARLUCK
LAY – IFANDBUTWHYNOT

ADVICE – Not a single one of these has ever triumphed on soft ground. Two options again…play or watch. I’ve bothered to rate it so I’ll play to my October Rules levels of staking and hopefully draw a few shekels profit.

SANDOWN 3-40

*GOLAN WAY….+13
TEMPO DE COTTE….+9
*LIVELY BARON….+/-0
*MAJOR MALARKEY….-13
ANY CURRENCY….-22
*FORTIFICATION….-25

TWO TO DUTCH – GOLAN WAY, TEMPO DE COTTE
20/80 – GOLAN WAY
EXOTIC – GOLAN WAY, TEMPO DE COTTE
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Not a race I’ll be heavily involved in but we’ll work with the figures and see what comes back. It’s one of those races….the more you look at it, the less appealing it becomes as a betting medium.

AINTREE 2-10

*WEST END ROCKER….+10
*HELLO BUD….+3
*BIG FELLA THANKS….-2
MUMBLES HEAD….-7
*MIDNIGHT HAZE….-17
*FABALU….-17
JOIN TOGETHER….-18
BALLABRIGGS….-18
BALLYVESEY….-19
GULLIBLE GORDON….-19
ANY CURRENCY….-25
IN COMPLIANCE….-25
PROBLEMA TIC….-30
SWING BILL….-32
POKER DE SIVOLA….-32
MINELLA THEATRE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – WEST END ROCKER, HELLO BUD, BIG FELLA THANKS
20/80 – WEST END ROCKER
EXOTICS – WEST END ROCKER, HELLO BUD, BIG FELLA THANKS
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – My top three have all jumped around here before, have ho going issues, my top rated won this race last year pulling a caravan and I’ll simply run with what I have.

AINTREE 2-45

*AWAYWITHTHEGREYS….+9
*SECRET EDGE….+/-0
*MERRYDOWN….-7
WEEKEND MILLIONAIR….-15
PERSIAN SNOW….-18
*I HEAR A SYMPHONY….-25
*SEVEN IS LUCKY….-25
CONSTANT CONTACT….-27
SAGA DE TERCEY….-30
BEAR’S AFFAIR….-32
HOLLO LADIES….-40
ASAID….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – AWAYWITHTHEGREYS, SECRET EDGE, MERRYDOWN
20/80 – AWAYWITHTHEGREYS
EXOTICS – AWAYWITHTHEGREYS, SECRET EDGE, MERRYDOWN
LAY – BEAR’S AFFAIR

ADVICE – Another race in which I will use what sits above to play with. No point looking for ghosts on what will be a difficult enough day for both man and beast. My top rated has ticks in the boxes i require and whilst much will rest on his state of mind (very in and out performer), he gets the 20/80.

AINTREE 3-20

*NACARAT….+3
*LITTLE JOSH….+/-0
RIO GAEL….-14
*CARRICKBOY….-17
*TRANQUIL SEA….-21
*GANSEY….-21
BLACKSTAFF….-24
CHANCE DU ROY….-26
CERIUM….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – NACARAT, LITTLE JOSH, CARRICKBOY
20/80 – NACARAT
EXOTICS – NACARAT, LITTLE JOSH, CARRICKBOY
LAY – CHANCE DU ROY

ADVICE – Half of these are running from out of the handicap proper but, half of those are moose. Again not a race for getting all worked up about and my staking will be low again.

CHEPSTOW 2-05

*MARK THE BOOK….+2
*MY BOY PADDY….-2
*THE RAINBOW HUNTER….-8
*ROYAL CHARM….-9
*CADOUDALAS….-16
*CANNINGTON BROOK….-23
SONA SASTA….-31

TWO TO DUTCH – MARK THE BOOK, MY BOY PADDY
20/80 – MARK THE BOOK
EXOTIC – MARK THE BOOK, MY BOY PADDY
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Awful stuff…not the racing, the heavy ground. When it is described heavy here, it’s HEAVY. A race in which pennies, rather than £’s, will be placed on the table.

CHEPSTOW 2-40

*MAURICETHEATHLETE….+14
*BROUGH ACADEMY….+13
*RADMORES REVENGE….+8
RANGITOTO….-1
*GRAN TORINO….-7
SAINTLY LADY….-11
TOP DANCER….-15
BADGERS COVE….-16
RIPTIDE….-23
FISHOUTOFWATER….-30
SANGFROID….-35
NO PRINCIPLES….-40
FRED THE SHRED….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – MAURICETHEATHLETE, BROUGH ACADEMY, RADMORES REVENGE
20/80 – MAURICETHEATHLETE
EXOTICS – MAURICETHEATHLETE, BROUGH ACADEMY, RADMORES REVENGE
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Three miles in glue…should be fun! Teedly staking here, that’s for sure.

CHEPSTOW 3-15

NOBLE LEGEND….+9
SEE U BOB….+9
HIGHWAY CODE….-8
DINEUR….-11
OLDRIK….-16
ARCTIC BEN….-21
TRIPTICO….-22
OLYMPIAN BOY….-29
WEBBERYS DREAM….-31
ROCKABILLY….-33

THREE TO DUTCH – NOBLE LEGEND, SEE U BOB, HIGHWAY CODE
20/80 – NOBLE LEGEND
EXOTICS – NOBLE LEGEND, SEE U BOB, HIGHWAY CODE
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – My top rated is on a right old roll but the handicapper catches up with them eventually. However, I’m happy to keep him onside and play as suggested.

WETHERBY 1-15

PURCELL’S BRIDGE….+24
*MICRO MISSION….+16
*AMERICAN LEGEND….+15
*ALWAYS BOLD….+13
FLEMI TWO SHOES….+12
HURRABORU….+/-0
*DAASIJ….-3
*AMORE MIO….-16
BANDANAMAN….-26

THREE TO DUTCH – PURCELL’S BRIDGE, MICRO MISSION, AMERICAN LEGEND
20/80 – PURCELL’S BRIDGE
EXOTICS – PURCELL’S BRIDGE, MICRO MISSION, AMERICAN LEGEND
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – The racing here looks great….all three rated races appeal. I’ll definitely be happy working with my figures and will play this one exactly as it has fallen.

WETHERBY 1-45

*LEASE LEND….+10
*PRET A THOU….+10
*DIAMOND FRONTIER….-3
*ROSSINI’S DANCER….-13
*PROSECCO….-17
BEST LOVER….-17

TWO TO DUTCH – LEASE LEND, PRET A THOU
20/80 – LEASE LEND
EXOTIC – LEASE LEND, PRET A THOU
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Two clear on my figures, track, trip, ground all spot on for my top one….I’ll have a shot at it.

WETHERBY 2-20

*CAPELLANUS….+11
TRUCKING ALONG….+9
UNKNOWN REBEL….+/-0
*DONTPAYTHEFERRYMAN….-2
FLEET DAWN….-12
WAR POET….-17
HEROSTATUS….-20
MWALESHI….-22
PERPETUALLY….-30
MINSKY MINE….-30

THREE TO DUTCH – CAPELLANUS, TRUCKING ALONG, UNKNOWN REBEL
20/80 – CAPELLANUS
EXOTICS – CAPELLANUS
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Brian Ellison is seriously muddying the waters here by running three and David O’Meara isn’t helping by saddling two. The horse trading tissue favourite is the only one of the Ellison trio yet to win on soft and it’s a really confused picture I’m looking at. I will work to my October Rules and hope my figures have sorted it out.

OF INTEREST

I think Henderson and Geraghty are going to run riot today but you’ll not get rich punting them at Sandown. Just watch and enjoy.

COCKNEY SPARROW (Aintree 12-35) – 20/80
UP FOR AN OSCAR (Aintree 1-35) – 20/80
IMPERIAL CIRCUS (Chepstow 1-00) – 20/80
VIVA COLONIA (Wetherby 12-45) – 20/80
BIGGINS BOY (Wetherby 3-30) – 20/80

I understand Rosie will be discussing the stables runners today on her Facebook page….might make for an interesting read….should be up by 11-00am….so I understand.

Have a great day and the very best of luck!

Kindest regards

Ron

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